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Lead against 3NT

#1 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2011-June-17, 01:41

AQJ6 A82 1043 962
Matchpoints, nobody vulnerable
1NT pass 3NT all pass
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#2 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2011-June-17, 04:44

View Postgnasher, on 2011-June-17, 01:41, said:

AQJ6 A82 1043 962
Matchpoints, nobody vulnerable
1NT pass 3NT all pass


Club obv? I mean I have never thought about 9xx vs Txx specifically, but I assume 9xx is safer/better? Also partner will have a better chance at reading the position if I lead the C6 rather than the D4
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#3 User is offline   phil_20686 

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Posted 2011-June-17, 05:25

I would go with the Q the ace of spades here. Its just so unlikely that partner can get in to lead spades twice. Its more likely that not leading a spade gives them the chance to knock out your ace of hearts and run to 11 tricks before we ever get a chance to play on spades. I would be happy enough to take my 3/4 tricks at MP.

EDIT: I didnt really think about which spade to lead, Jlall is obviously right that the ace is better.
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#4 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2011-June-17, 05:30

View PostJLOGIC, on 2011-June-17, 04:44, said:

Club obv? I mean I have never thought about 9xx vs Txx specifically, but I assume 9xx is safer/better? Also partner will have a better chance at reading the position if I lead the C6 rather than the D4


I am trying to understand why I should go off the reservation with a non-standard lead here? Clearly the opps have anywhere between 25-29 HCP, so I would imagine given time to blowout my ♥A they will take 11 tricks fairly often. Where If I make the obvious lead I will almost certainly hold them to 10 tricks.
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#5 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2011-June-17, 05:38

View Postpooltuna, on 2011-June-17, 05:30, said:

I am trying to understand why I should go off the reservation with a non-standard lead here? Clearly the opps have anywhere between 25-29 HCP, so I would imagine given time to blowout my ♥A they will take 11 tricks fairly often. Where If I make the obvious lead I will almost certainly hold them to 10 tricks.


Leading from AQJx into a 1N opener at MP seems like the non standard lead. But I understand your point on why this would be a hand to make a non standard lead such as that and think it's reasonable.

On that note if you lead a spade usually you'd lead the ace not the queen, but I suppose there's an argument for the queen at MP on the basis that we will rarely know when it's right to shift to hearts anyways. Still, dummy might have stiff K, or an obvious cashout dummy, and leading the queen doesn't help on that many lahyouts.
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#6 User is offline   bluecalm 

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Posted 2011-June-17, 05:45

JL beat me to it. I am leading A♠ if I choose spades at all (despite stiff K, there is Kx). Running the simul now :)
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#7 User is offline   phil_20686 

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Posted 2011-June-17, 05:49

I would have thought the argument for leading the Queen is when the layout is something like:

AQJx Kxx Tx 98xx

Now you can get 3 spade tricks if declarer covers and gets on lead.

There must be a bunch of exampes on the theme of blocking the suit opposite Txx aswell
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#8 User is offline   bluecalm 

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Posted 2011-June-17, 05:58

2k hands sample.

Winning lead:
A♠ - 419
Q♠ - 362
6♠ - 333
A♥ - 515 (!!)
2♥ - 371
4♦ - 449
6♣ - 456

Best lead:
A♠ - 1524
Q♠ - 1471
6♠ - 1014
A♥ - 970
4♦ - 960
6♣ - 983

DD simul loves banging aces at imps because it's then always switches perfectly I see it again and again :)
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#9 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2011-June-17, 06:30

View Postphil_20686, on 2011-June-17, 05:49, said:

I would have thought the argument for leading the Queen is when the layout is something like:

AQJx Kxx Tx 98xx

Now you can get 3 spade tricks if declarer covers and gets on lead.

There must be a bunch of exampes on the theme of blocking the suit opposite Txx aswell


Yes, and they might also misguess altogether and duck twice with Kxx opp xxx, though that works better if you appear to be a novice (or maybe if declarer is on some super high level where you wouldn't lead the queen from AQJx and a side ace if you have the side ace...but obviously you might have AQJxx.

A def plus for the queen lead is that partner will encourage with the Txx, whereas on the ace lead he will discourage. I am not sure which is the right lead single dummy, seems close, but I would typically go with the ace as it gives me some chances to go right later in the hand if I judge well, and wins against a number of layouts anyways.

Bluecalm, what do you mean by winning vs best in this case?
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#10 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2011-June-17, 06:48

View Postgnasher, on 2011-June-17, 01:41, said:

Matchpoints, nobody vulnerable AQJ6 A82 1043 962
1NT pass 3NT all pass
IMO...
♠A = 10, ♠Q = 9, ♦ = 8, ♣ = 7, ♥ = 1
♠A allows you to continue with a small spade if, for example, dummy has ♠K doubleton..
The result of Bluecalm's simulation, where the ♥A wins most often is surprising!
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#11 User is offline   bluecalm 

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Posted 2011-June-17, 07:06

Winning = defeating 3NT
Best = leading to maximum amount of tricks for defense;

Quote

The result of Bluecalm's simulation, where the ♥A wins most often is surprising!


It's not surprising to me because I saw this few times in double dummy simulations.
The reason is that if we run spades we will run them anyway after A♥ and if partner has Txx and side entry we will find his entry or just wait after A♥ (double dummy).
A♥ cater both those cases which are very important at imps. This is anomaly and unless you play suit preference to A leads at trick 1 you won't get good results doing it :)

What is surprising to me is how much better spade lead at matchpoints than any other lead while at imps it seems that passive lead is better.
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#12 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2011-June-17, 07:14

It doesn't surprise me that a passive lead is best at IMPs. The problem with a spade lead is that it will often produce only four winners.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#13 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2011-June-17, 13:12

I led ♠A, with unfortunate but interesting consequences:

(the spots have changed because I found the hand records)

After ♠A, ♠Q ducked, spade to the king, declarer cashed five rounds of clubs. On the last one I had to choose between unguarding diamonds, baring ♥A, and throwing my spade winner so that I could be endplayed with three rounds of diamonds.

Leading ♠A worked out badly in a number of ways: it gave away a spade trick, allowed declarer to tighten up the ending by holding up ♠K, and told him where ♥A was.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#14 User is offline   phil_20686 

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Posted 2011-June-17, 18:01

I'm not sure that this hand is very representative, I'm pretty sure that you should not expect partner to have so much !
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#15 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2011-June-19, 10:29

View Postphil_20686, on 2011-June-17, 18:01, said:

I'm not sure that this hand is very representative, I'm pretty sure that you should not expect partner to have so much !


I agree - I'd lead ♠A again. I just thought it was interesting how costly it was on this occasion.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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