mikeh, on Feb 13 2007, 01:17 PM, said:
Pass seems automatic. If this is even close to a bid, then I have to seriously rethink everything I thought I knew about the game.
I would not, for a moment, read into partner's silence, any meaningful inference about his shape. I have 14 hcp, in Aces and Kings. LHO has, on average, 16. Thus rho and partner rate to hold about 10 hcp between them. The odds are that partner lacks the hcp to make a bid not matter what his shape is. We can almost rule out freakish shapes since, with LHO and us being balanced, if partner has a freak, so too does rho and rho would be unlikely to pass 1N with a freakish hand. But he (edit: he = partner, not rho) might be 4=4=1=4, or some 5432 or 6331 etc, etc. Unless you are suicidal and fraticidal, one doesn't make really sick 2-level overcalls of a strong notrump at equal.
Yes, balancing MIGHT work. On occasion, opening 7N before looking at your hand will work as well: that doesn't make it the best call.
And as for a penalty double in 4th chair: I see NO basis for that treatment. Note that you are not on lead (so you lack the tempo advantage that direct penalty doublers have) and your are under the strong hand, not over (so you lack the positional advantage)...the frequency of holding a penalty double hand in these circumstances is incredibly low, and there are far more useful applications of the double card in this seat than penalty.
Start rethinking then. Balancing here rates to work more often than not.
Your side has 1/2 the deck (approximately). Now try thinking in LOTT terms. The odds are your side also has an 8 card trump fit somewhere. Do you really think its correct to defend under these circumstances? It cant be.
While you can't read a lot into partners failure to bid over 1N, you can draw some inferences......he does not hold a hand that would qualify for a bid otherwise.
So, he can still hold a hand that is 5-5, or has a 6+ card suit but wont show it holding only his expected 5 hcp. You may also still have an 8+ card fit somewhere. If you pass, you will (normally) be gaining at most +100 vs. your anticipated 110/130/140. This is going to lose more frequently than it wins. Additionally, the aces and kings are suit oriented and primed for playing, not defending.
For years, I passed this hand in the balancing position with average results. Over the last two years, I have begun balancing after 1N p p on almost any hand holding 10+ hcp. The results have been overwhelmingly favorable. Of course, there will be a few times where it does not work out well, but that comes with the decision to make any call. But I will take a few -100/180/300/380 vs. a LOT of -50, +110, +130', +200, +300, +500 all year long and be way ahead at the end of the year.
I dont think anyone said that an X in passout was penalty. It can, however, be converted to penalty and will be frequently with a competent partner.
As a side note to you personally, Mike, while you may be a "star", it doesn't mean your opinion is the correct one. Please be a little more considerate before saying stupid crap like this:
Yes, balancing MIGHT work. On occasion, opening 7N before looking at your hand will work as well: that doesn't make it the best call.
There is a HUGE difference in the two situations and you damn well know it. To imply otherwise is complete and utter hogwash.
And while pass may seem automatic to you....you provide no real basis for your assumption/opinion. Whereas, I can show several good reasons why either bidding or doubling MAY be correct (I also noted that I would do so, knowing that it may turn out poorly). Pass MAY also be correct (and it can also work out poorly), and I wouldn't fault it.....but I sure as hell wouldnt be as quick to bash someone with
idiotic statements like the one you made there if they chose to balance. (edited after reading mikes response below)
Now, of course, this is JUST MY OWN OPINION, and I am not a "star". But I also know from experience that it works. So stick that in your pipe and smoke it.