[jdeegan]

I generated 100 hands using a loose screen and Pavlicek's random generator. From this I winnowed it down to 49 hands that fit the bidding. As is often the case with forum hands, the choice between alternatives (passing or 2♣ in this case) was fairly close. According to my (admittedly imperfect) analysis, bidding 2♣ was a winner 26 times and a loser 15 times with eight cases essentially even. 2♣ was a big winner five times (club and NT games) and a big loser five times (three heart games).

Observations:
1) wide variety of outcomes - no one or two consistent themes
2) the big swings are about even
3) better to balance with 2♣ against strong club systems and WJS opponents
4) worse to balance against old fashioned Eastern Scientific players who open 1♠ with heavy two suited hands
5) on about one third of the hands' outcome depends on skill of players - better to balance vs weaker players - poor play of 1♠ less a factor than opponent's poor competitive bidding and defense versus your contract. Complicate the hand against lesser opponents.

One potential double game swing hand showed up.

Scoring: IMP

1♠-P-P-2♣

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Would you find the stiff king of clubs offside? Or the diamond ruff versus 4♥?

[jdonn]

Maybe not the diamond ruff, but I bet I would take my 4 top tricks.

[cherdano]

Of course I would drop the king when RHO passes 1♠.

[jdeegan]

jdonn, on Feb 27 2007, 11:00 PM, said:

Maybe not the diamond ruff, but I bet I would take my 4 top tricks.

Oooops, transcribed the wrong hand.

Scoring: IMP

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Some might not open the West hand for 1♠. Others might bid with the North hand. The subjective nature of this type of analysis makes it much more useful to the analyst than to anyone else.

[cherdano]

Uhm, I would think most would not open a 3-loser hand with 6 great diamonds and 5 spades 1♠. And I don't know anyone beyond beginner's who would pass 1♠ with the East hand.

[bid_em_up]

cherdano, on Feb 28 2007, 04:02 PM, said:

Uhm, I would think most would not open a 3-loser hand with 6 great diamonds and 5 spades 1♠. And I don't know anyone beyond beginner's who would pass 1♠ with the East hand.

I wouldnt pass the East hand. I would call the director, since I have 14 cards.

[whereagles]

There's a known technical bug with pavlicek's generator. The hands it gives are more freak than the theoretical odds predict.

Unless pavlicek corrected the bug, your simulation is statisticall wrong

[marcD]

For whatever it's worth i would pass since there is a fair chance than the opponents are cold for 4H. If i were to balance I think 3C better desribes my hand (provided it is natural )