[jdonn]

Fluffy, on Mar 20 2007, 03:17 AM, said:

Hehe, sorry, didn't mean that it was worth nothing, jsut that there is no huge difference from AJ and Ax, and I don't think many would bid 3NT with Ax. At least that's my feelings.

Look at my previous post. Having the heart jack dramatically increases the chances the suit will block for the opponents, aside from the added value it gives if partner holds Txx or Q or Qx or similar.

[Fluffy]

IMHO dramaticaly is saying too much given RHO opened on first position vulnerable, you are right it has a decent chance to help, but is it that much?

Even if ♥KQ are not on the normal hand, ♥J is worth no extra stopper if partner has 1 ♥ unless it is the Q

if he has 2 cards the same unless it is Qx

if he has 3, only if he has Kxx or 10xx (or xxx and a miracle stiff Q)

if he has void or 4, 3NT is not our top spot probably

[pclayton]

3♠ for me, and I don't think its close between that and x. Refuting Bid-em's points:

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1) The scoring is IMP's, I really don't have to play in a major suit to do ok on the board.  We should attempt to find our best fit.  Bidding 3S or 3N directly, does not involve partner in this decision. In addition to having spades, I also have a fit with either minor, so lets try to find out what partners hand really is, instead of insisting on spades or NT with our first bid.

True, but 10 tricks are cheaper than 11, and we can't be ecstatic about it when pard bids 4 minor.

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2) We can be reasonably certain that partner is not leaving the double in. If he does, we are still quite happy.

Possible, but doubtful with our A-J. Unless RHO really preempted on trash, you aren't getting to play 3♥ doubled.

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3) We can be reasonably certain that partner cannot bid 3N on his own. Playing 3N only being able to hold up once may not be such a great idea (although I prefer the choice of 3N to 3S(......and)4) If partner can bid 3N by some odd miracle, we are quite content. Not only that, we are better placed, since an opening heart lead lead will be going into his hand, and not thru it.  And any non-heart lead by RHO may well give us the tempo required to make 3N.

Similar to the penalty pass argument, its very unlikely pard can bid 3N. But he's just as apt to bid 3N over a double than 3♠.

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5) It is quite likely that if I can indeed make 3N, that 5 of minor is safer, especially from the other side of the table.

This I don't understand, but what does this have to do with the double vs 3♠ argument? If we make 3N its on a source of tricks, and its very likely that we have too many losers for 5 of a minor. I'd be curious in a reasonable construction where pard can bid 3N, but 5 of a minor is better. I think it requires us to be totally off one of the minors.

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6) Partner may well have spades and bid them on their own.

Great, then we'll find our slam when I overcall in my AK-5th.

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7) Partner just as easily could have a stiff or doubleton spade and a 5 or 6 card minor, where 4/5 of minor is cold, but 3S/4S goes down.

This is the best argument for double I think, especially against playing 3♠ exactly. Its very possible that pard has a very weak hand with a long minor where even 5 of a minor is better than 3♠.

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8) It is unlikely that we will ever find the minor fit, if we just bid 3S or 3N.

Its also very unlikely we will find spades if we double.

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9) Partner probably will not take us off of 3S on a holding such as: xx xx KQxx AQxxx  (maybe he should, but many wouldn't).  Note on this holding we probably only make 3S, but 5C is certainly reasonable.  Partner may also raise us to an unmakeable 4S on this holding. (and....) 10) Good partners bid 3S on 3-3-4-3 holdings and 3-2-4-4 holdings when weak. 

Keep that in mind when you are dealt a 3=1-5-4 and want to double 3♥.

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11) Experience has proven to me that X is the best call.  It goes against everything that one is ever taught about bidding in these situations. I fought this for years with my current regular partner.  The results have proven (to me) that doubling has to be best and it is practically automatic now. And it works.

When I hear comments like this I tend to think that either you haven't had a representative set of hands in your experience, or that you have a selective memory and ignore the cases where you have missed the boat on a perfectly mundane 5-3 spade fit.

[awm]

An awful lot of this is a style issue. If you double, there are also some questions about the followups. Perhaps the relevent questions are:

(1) Say partner has a hand with a five-card minor and doubleton spade, in the 10-12 point range and no heart stopper. If you overcall 3♠, will he normally pass, bid 4♠, bid 3NT, or introduce his minor at the four-level? If you expect partner to normally pass or raise spades with this hand, that's a pretty good reason not to bid 3♠ in this auction. If you expect partner to normally bid 4-minor (or 3NT!) with this hand over 3♠, then bidding 3♠ looks a lot better.

(2) What is your plan after double and the likely 4m bid by partner? If your plan is to pass, then doubling seems like a bad idea. The more reasonable plan is to introduce spades at the four-level. Does this show a "flexible" hand like the one you have, or a spade one-suiter? If a spade one-suiter then I think double as an initial action is out. If a flexible hand, then the sequence guarantees you to find the best strain unless the best strain is NT at the cost of forcing you to play at the game level even when partner has garbage.

My usual agreements indicate that partner would normally introduce a 5-card minor (or even sometimes a 4-card club suit!) over 3♠ when holding 10-12 hcp or more and doubleton spade. I've found that in these auctions it is usually better to bid naturally than to raise on doubleton and hope. I also have the agreement that double followed by 4♠ is a flexible hand, but would prefer more values (and/or less in hearts) for that sequence. I prefer bidding 3♠ over double because I expect that: when we have a game, we will always get to the right game unless it's 3NT and when we have no game we will play 3♠ which is likely to be better than playing 4♠ or 5m. I also prefer 3♠ over 3NT (by a smaller margin) because I think the odds that one of 4♠, 5♣, or 5♦ is right (combined) slightly exceed the odds that 3NT is right, and also because I think 3♠ will be less of a slaughter than 3NT when in fact we have no game.