[djehuti]

♠AK43 ♥KQ ♦987432 ♣7 IMps Vul ALL , Dealer North.
your are sitting south, north opens 1♣, natural, 1♦ on your right and you bid 1♠. Pass on your left, 2♣ from partner, pass on your right. your bid?

[pbleighton]

It's vul at imps, I have 12 hcp, I must go forward.

Yuck, truly an awful spot.

2NT. I'll stop diamonds eventually, won't I?

Peter

[jdonn]

Brutal, I was leaning toward pass but I think it's too likely to make 5♣, could just lose a diamond and a club if partner has ace of hearts, short diamonds, and good clubs. 3NT could also easily be making, if partner has a singleton T or higher in diamonds and LHO also has some honor the suit will be royally blocked for them, I might even end up setting up diamonds myself. Or the leader could be void. I think I will bid 2NT, if partner bids 3NT I'll pass, if he bids 3♣ I'll pass, if he bids anything else (3♥, 3♠, 4♣) I will bid the next available level of clubs.

[Foxx]

Two notrump. Devaluing for the singleton club and the ♥KQ tight. Even a vulnerable overcaller doesn't promise the AKQJ10 in his suit. He could even have 4, and be bidding to get the lead. Partner is free to pass or move in any direction he chooses, be it clubs, notrump or even spades. What game would you like to arrive at when North holds, ♠QJx ♥AJ10x ♦x ♣KQJ9x?

[redbird97]

4S. Am I supposed to be driving toward a slam?

[Fluffy]

2NT for me.

[pclayton]

There are three choices in my mind: Pass, 2N and 3♣.

Its possible pard has a stiff ♦10 or higher. If RHO has 5, its close to a coin flip:

1. If diamonds 1156, pard will have a stiff 10 or higher 5/7 times

2. If diamonds are 0256, pard won't have an honor only in one case (♦65) out of 11 cases.

3. If diamonds are 2056, pard, obviously won't have an honor. 0/11.

Assuming these outcomes are all equal (approximating here) - .33 x 5/7 + .33 x 10/11 + .33 x 0 = roughly 55% (I'm doing this in my head).

1. However, this does not factor in:

2. When RHO has 6 diamonds;

3. When pard's clubs aren't running, which is probably a necessary condition to 3N making. If we are bothering to invite with 2N, we better have an idea how we are making 9 tricks, assuming we are losing 4 diamonds off the top. Remember, pard's hand will be on the table.

What is eerily attractive to me is a high number of clubs. Give pard a very mundane: xx, Axxx, x, AQJxxx, and we making a heck of a lot of tricks with an elopement. Give pard the ♣10, and I like my chances with a double squeeze, or just ruffing a heart in my hand. Even a junkyard Qx, Axx, x, KJTxxxx won't make 11 tricks, but we are safe at 4♣.

Pard can even try 3N with a stiff ♦K or Ace too. I think there's a big advantage to having the NT played across from me.

I've talked myself into 3♣, but at the table I'd probably pass, since this was my visceral reaction.

[kenrexford]

2♦ for me. Two reasons.

First, partner is allowed to have both remaining diamonds and a legitimate stopper.

Second, partner also may delayed raise spades, and I'm OK with inviting game in the Moysian.

If partner rebids 2♥, now I have choices that I dislike, but such is life.

[djehuti]

I went way overboard here, bidding 2♦.... Pass really seems right now

---

[kenrexford]

djehuti, on Jun 8 2007, 12:55 PM, said:

I went way overboard here, bidding 2♦.... Pass really seems right now

---

Where'd that diamond 10 go?

Who cares, actually? If the opponents try to cash four diamonds, they set up your diamonds, for making 2NT (you decide to bid 2NT after 2♥). So, they try to avoid that by switching to a spade. You win that and play another diamond. They try a passive heart back. You play another diamond, they try another heart back, you play abother diamond, they play another heart back, you cross to the spade, and then run the diamonds.

A club opening lead does nothing better, unless the opponents find the amazing defense of small club to the Queen-Ace, small diamond to the Jack, and club #2 back.

Maybe, then, you go down one.

But, give partner a different hand (he does not have to have THAT bad a hand), and you might have a game in spades, or even 3NT.

[jdonn]

Partner had the weakest hand possible and we were a bit short of game. I'm shocked!

[foo]

djehuti, on Jun 8 2007, 12:55 PM, said:

I went way overboard here, bidding 2♦.... Pass really seems right now

---

2N by S is actually worse than Ken says.

The opening lead of any ♣ from W thru N's KQTxx will set 2N even if N splits honors and E ducks.

If that happens, Declarer's best shot is psychological.
He must play the DT, hoping that E splits their honors to cover (crashing W's DJ)
(I think I've seen a Bridge Master deal with this theme...)
...What a way to drive home "2nd hand low! I mean it!"


2N Declared by N is considerably better given that only the unusual lead of E's stiff
♠x will set 2N. Any other lead makes 2N by N cold.

Here's how the ♠x lead can set 2N.
1= If S plays small on ♠x, W wins the SQ then puts DJ on table followed by anything.

2= If S plays ♠ A or K, sooner or later Declarer will have to play ♦'s or ♣'s, and as long as the DJ is allowed to win a trick and the SQ is used to force both the SA and the SJ from Declarer, 2N is going down.

[Fluffy]

did you really make an analysis for a direct club lead on this auction from xxx?

[djehuti]

sry, ♦ 10 was with partner. i said that pass seemed right afterwards, but i really like 2nt now.

[kenrexford]

Fluffy, on Jun 8 2007, 02:50 PM, said:

did you really make an analysis for a direct club lead on this auction from xxx?

Isn't that the obvious lead?