[han]

Scoring: none

1C-(2D)-2H
3C - 4H

---

Too bad you missed 3NT but the rest of the field probably did too. RHO leads the diamond 8, how do you play it? (It's matchpoints!)

[Fluffy]

I'm hungry, and wont eat anything in 3 hours more .

I hate this problem, whatever I try can be very wrong.

Take ♦A and play trumps, don't wanna take risks, lead is lieklly to happen everywhere.

[kenrexford]

Heck, too tempting for me.

I'd admittedly try to cash the clubs for the diamond pitch, hoping for the person with the doubleton club to have stiff Ace, stiff King, or AK tight in hearts, or a void.

No guts no glory, said the crazy man.

[Apollo81]

edit

hidden:

Spoiler

I would play the clubs, yeah. This wins in the likely scenario that hearts are 2-2, RHO has a doubleton club and 1 high heart.

[mikeh]

It's mps, so I win the ♦A and play the AQ of ♣s. This is intended to make RHO at least consider the possibility that I am trying to ruff out the ♣K. This shouldn't fool him often, but it is a slight extra possibility: if he pitches, I cross to the ♠ K to lead another top ♣.

BTW, this wins when west has the AK8x of trump as well.... if I win the 1st ♦ and play trump, west wins, crosses in ♦s and the 3rd round of ♦s is fatal.

[Apollo81]

Mike,

Spoiler

in the scenario I mentioned, I think you need to keep the ♠K in dummy as an entry to the 4th round of clubs.

Let's say RHO has 3262 shape (I think extremely likely) with one heart honor. You play
K,A,Q clubs. RHO must ruff low. You overruff and lead a spade back to ♠K and lead a 4th round of clubs. If RHO ruffs high pitch a diamond and you're good. If LHO ruffs low you win the return and knock out both high trumps at once.

Am I missing something?

[Free]

I'm hungry, I'm going to take ♦A and play 3 rounds of ♣, hoping for a singleton ♥A or ♥K with the doubleton ♣.

[pclayton]

Forget about hungry; this is the kind of hand where you can crash their heart honors with a little imagination.

Play three rounds of clubs. I don't even need a stiff honor, I can do it most of time that RHO has a doubleton club, which seems very possible on the auction. If RHO ruffs low, play a spade to the board and the 4th round of clubs. If RHO again ruffs high, we are in good shape, and if RHO pitches, we still have chances, since we can crash their honors with Ax opp Kx. If RHO ruffs low with the other small spot, pitch, but for reasons below they can still hold you to 4.

If LHO has the doubleton club, I'm not any worse off, and still benefit from a stiff honor, although this is unlikely as it leaves RHO with a 1=3=6=3 and LHO with a 8=1=2=2.

I think I make anytime RHO's hearts are A, K, or Ax, Kx. Curiously, Axx / Kxx doesn't help me. I can pitch if RHO ruffs small a 2nd time, but LHO can also pitch his presumed diamond, and they can make their high trump separately.

This seems like a very good return on the moderate risk of catching either opponent with a stiff club.

Playing 3 clubs also thwarts a trump promotion when LHO has ♥AK8x.

[mikeh]

Apollo81, on Jun 26 2007, 10:55 AM, said:

Mike,

Spoiler

in the scenario I mentioned, I think you need to keep the ♠K in dummy as an entry to the 4th round of clubs.

Let's say RHO has 3262 shape (I think extremely likely) with one heart honor. You play
K,A,Q clubs. RHO must ruff low. You overruff and lead a spade back to ♠K and lead a 4th round of clubs. If RHO ruffs high pitch a diamond and you're good. If LHO ruffs low you win the return and knock out both high trumps at once.

Am I missing something?

No... that's what comes from reading the forum 1st thing in the morning, before my coffee has reached my brain Oddly, it crossed my mind that there may be a flaw in leading to the ♠K after winning my ♣K, but I couldn't be bothered to think about it

[han]

A lot of opinions but no hard arguments so far.

It's quite hard to get a good estimate on the odds, as it depends a lot on what the opponents would bid 2D with (or pass 2H instead of bidding 2S). It seems reasonable to assume that the whole field is in 4H (top flight of 3, and really no other contract seems reasonable even though 3NT is superior given the 2D call). That means that we should go for it if the odds for the overtrick are larger than the odds for going down.

The shapes for east that seem most consistent with the auction and lead are (A) 3-3-6-1, ( 4-2-6-1, © 3-2-6-2 and (D) 4-1-6-2. It is also likely that RHO does not have AK of hearts for the 2D bid. Ignoring the diamond suit that gives the following number of hands:

A: 84*2*5 = 840
B: 126*5*5 = 3150
C: 84*5*10 = 4200
D: 126*4*10 = 5040

But only 80% of the C hands and 50% of the D hands give you an overtrick for a total of 3360+2520 = 5880 against the 3990 hands where you go down.

So my rough estimate (ignoring several more unlikely shapes) is that it is quite a bit better to go for the uptrick.

Of course, I didn't do this computation at the table but estimated that it was right to go for the overtrick. LHO was 4-1-6-2 with a small heart so it didn't matter.

[han]

Jlall, on Jun 27 2007, 06:49 AM, said:

You seem to have just totally ignored 2263 with RHO (not sure why). You also ignored 3361 with RHO. You also ignored 2164 with RHO.

I ignored 2263 with RHO because I think that both lines would take the same amount of tricks in that case.

I didn't ignore 3-3-6-1, see (A).

I ignored 2-1-6-4 because I thought LHO would possibly/likely bid 2S with 7-3-2-1 shape. I agree that this isn't clear and there are other shapes that are possible. As I said, it is very hard to make an accurate estimate and my computation should not be seen as hard evidence that playing for the uptrick is better.

[FrancesHinden]

What card does LHO lead from 3 low diamonds?
Call me an out-and-out rebel if you will, but Qxx x KJ109x xxxx looks like a 2D overcall to me....

[han]

LHO would lead low from 3, so the 8 suggests a doubleton.

[Fluffy]

Being hungry ain't much better, when I answered I counted only 8 trumps in our line :S

[han]

Jlall, on Jun 27 2007, 08:46 AM, said:

Hannie, on Jun 27 2007, 07:01 AM, said:

Jlall, on Jun 27 2007, 06:49 AM, said:

You seem to have just totally ignored 2263 with RHO (not sure why). You also ignored 3361 with RHO. You also ignored 2164 with RHO.

I ignored 2263 with RHO because I think that both lines would take the same amount of tricks in that case.

I didn't ignore 3-3-6-1, see (A).

I ignored 2-1-6-4 because I thought LHO would possibly/likely bid 2S with 7-3-2-1 shape. I agree that this isn't clear and there are other shapes that are possible. As I said, it is very hard to make an accurate estimate and my computation should not be seen as hard evidence that playing for the uptrick is better.

Sry it is 8:45 AM and I haven't gone to sleep I will refrain from posting in this state

On the contrary Justin, it is good for the forum morale to see that you also can make posts like that.

[nige1]

Hannie, on Jun 26 2007, 07:39 AM, said:

Scoring: none

1C-(2D)-2H
3C - 4H

---

Too bad you missed 3NT but the rest of the field probably did too. RHO leads the diamond 8, how do you play it? (It's matchpoints!)

I guess ♦ A, ♥ Q,
Losing when LHO has 4 ♥ and 2 ♦
but gaining when LHO has a singleton ♦ and ♥ A K

[cherdano]

2164 is 36*5*5 = 900 shapes, they should be weighted with the likelyhood that LHO passes with 7321, maybe 50%? This wouldn't be enough to swing Han's analysis. I am more worried about the fact that RHO is more likely to bid 2♦ with a singleton than with shape C.

Also, I am not so sure we can assume everyone is in 3N, I could imagine North rebidding 2N over 2♥, with South rasing happily. We need the traveler