[Free]

I would like the opinion of experts on this matter. Consider standard agreements only!

You hold following hand:

---

LHO is dealer, All Vulnerable, and the auction goes:
Pass - Pass - 1♦ - ...

What do you bid? (if it depends on scoring, please explain)

Note: partner may hold up to 11HCP balanced (no singleton or 4441), or up to 9HCP unbalanced.

[foo]

You've got a strong NT overcall. Make the "book bid".

Oh, and 4441's are not "balanced" as the term is usually defined...

[Free]

foo, on Jul 14 2007, 01:50 PM, said:

Oh, and 4441's are not "balanced" as the term is usually defined...

That's why I specified...

[MickyB]

This would be a blindingly obvious pass if partner had dealt and passed, but given that LHO has passed also it is close. I'm still passing though.

[pbleighton]

Assuming your agreements allow mediocre 15 counts for 1NT overcalls, 1NT, although at IMPs I might pass, at MPs never.

Double is not an option.

Peter

[hrothgar]

I admit that I am lacking strong conviction on this hand. I don't object strongly to Pass, Double, or 1NT. I suspect that my decision at the table would primarily depend on whom I was partnering.

The bid that I like least is 1NT. I think that the hand is close to being strong enough for a 1NT overcall, however, not quite. 1NT has some advantages -primarily the fact that it immediately clarifies and limits strength - however, it strikes me as too much of a stretch.

If I have a partner who is an aggressive balancer, I will probably pass.

If partner doesn't normally stretch in the balancing position, I'll double. I really dislike a double on this shape, however, I prefer this to 1NT.

Of the various options available, I prefer pass, however, I know a number of folks who are more liberal with their doubling style and would choose this. I'll be interested to see what Justin has to say about this one.

[mcphee]

Overcalling 1NT with bottom on the heap 15 counts that are flat can be suicidal when the majority of the time, you are not making a game. How would we feel if we bid 1NT and the next hand finds dble pass pass ? Is it not true that on a bad day if 1NT bid got dbled you may end up taking just those 2 aces?

Dble for take out is a consideration that makes me cringe, although styles around the globe vary, double is a bid I find silly. Does dble mean partner I have points? Something like, DBLE = pard let me advise you I have the points, we may not have any safe place to play, but I believe in controlled activity. Clearly 15 points is more than my average and you should know about it. Also pard, you will play the hand while I uncork another bottle of vino (my 3rd, the excuse for bidding).

Pass and await developments. I have no fear of missing game.

[P_Marlowe]

1NT, if you think that the hand is not
strong enough (fair enough),
than pass, anything else is sick.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[Winstonm]

Pass at imps. Risk/Reward is skewed.
1N at MPs. Risk? We don't care about no stinkin' risk.

[pclayton]

Much as I try, I can't evaluate this as a 15 count. This is one of the lousiest 15's I've seen. The only redeeming feature is the positional aspect of my diamonds.

1N is unappealing at all forms of scoring, but especially matchpoints. We'll probably defend 1N, which makes passing clear, because:

If they make 7 and we make 6 its -90 if we pass and -100 if we bid.
If they make 6 and we make 7 its +100 if we pass and +90 if we bid.
If they make 5 and we make 8, its +200 if we pass and +120 if we bid.
If they make 8 and we make 5, its -200 if we bid and -120 if we pass.

Anyone seeing a pattern here?

The only way bidding is right is when we can make 9 tricks, which seems like a big long shot.

Double isn't appealing either. I'm not enamored with playing a suit contract with this 4333.

[helene_t]

I voted 1NT but just changed my mind. My reasoning was that ♦QJ are two tricks for only three HCP which must be a bargain. But LHO my have one of AK. Non-vulnerable I would probably have bid 1NT still. As it is, I pass.

[foo]

IMPs, Red All.

♠ AJ4 ♥ J83 ♦ QJ72 ♣ AQ6
pa-pa-(1D)-??

I agree with those that say this is not the greatest 15 count.

OTOH, I've got problems figuring out how We get to game if I pass here.
Surely pd isn't expected to balance on all 10 counts with a 5 card suit are they?
Yet if we pass, We rate to miss a game unless pd does exactly that.

The other advantage to 1N is it consumes the entire one level. Robbing Them of the easy ability to bid the majors.

X is not even a logical alternative with this hand in my POV.

[FrancesHinden]

Pass at all forms of scoring. Not close.

I'd even pass NV at MPs, but 1NT is closer.

[Halo]

1NT

At all forms of scoring, and without any hesitation whatsoever.

First win the auction then play the hand.

[Gerben42]

Quote

Sorry to disappoint, I'm as passer

Why is that disappointing? I pass in tempo, hoping that opps won't believe my 15 HCP in the play.

The 1NT bidders deserve to be -800. Double is closer but too much HCP in ♦ for that. Not that I'd never Dbl with this shape, Justin gave a nice hand for that.

[the hog]

Pass. The reason for passing is that I have no source of tricks, no decent suits and a sterile distribution. To be honest, I don't even think this is close.

[Echognome]

One thing I'm learning from these forums is to stop being a bean counter on the balanced hands (I was never a walrus on the shapely hands). So consider me a convert to passing this hand.

[foo]

Strangely enough, I'd be far less tempted to act with the OP hand under any other circumstances than Red @ IMPs.

Red IMP games are just too important to ignore reasonable ways of finding.

For the passers, I repeat the question I asked earlier:
Do you expect pd to balance with just about all 10 counts with a 5+ card suit in them?
...because if pd does have that hand, We rate to have a game that should be bid almost always in any form of scoring.

Either pd has to aggressively balance (...From my POV. Maybe you don't consider such balances aggressive) to cater for us possibly having this sort of hand -or- we have to take a bid with this hand.
Or we have to risk missing a reasonable number of games Red @ IMPs.

Unless one of the simulation fanatics can show that passing is best with this hand in this auction, I'll remain concerned that to not take action here has too great a risk of missing a Red IMP game We should be in.

[skjaeran]

I overcall 1NT more often than most, but this is an easy pass.
If partner could have a hand where we should be in game, he'd have opened, not passed in my style. I'm not afraid of missing a partscore, since partner will often be there balancing if it goes pass-pass.

And as Phil pointed out, often one of the sides will end up declaring 1NT, and we'll get a better score defending than declaring every time we score less than 9 tricks.