[GrantK]

I watched a tourney on BBO 2 days ago. In a hand the declarer (He was west) played 6♠ and there was a key suit, Q8642 A93. He could lose 1 trick only. In the acutual layout south had singleton J and declarer played low toward ace and low from dummy. As you can know no matter how he played the contract would fail. With this combination, assuming no entry problem, what's the best way to lose only 1 trick. Also, what if A8642 Q93?

[Trpltrbl]

A93 opposite Q8642 49,1739% for 4 tricks by playing the Ace and a low towards the Q.

Q93 oppsite A8642 becomes 43,5217% again by playing the Ace first and low towards the Queen.

Mike

[paulg]

If you run Windows then the tool you need to compute this is SUITPLAY - it allows you to easily compute lines of play for any suit combination.

It can be downloaded from

http://home.planet.n...rcis45/SuitPlay

and is available free and unlicensed for personal use.

I recommend emailing Jeroen Warmerdam (as suggested on web site) as he will inform you about new releases.

Regards

Paul

[slothy]

'A93 opposite Q8642 49,1739% for 4 tricks by playing the Ace and a low towards the Q.'

49,1739% seems rather good odds Mike or you using European numerical punctuation ;0

[mpefritz]

Someone can correct me, but the answers so far are not complete. Assume you need 4 tricks:


Q8642


A93

Assume A in declarer's hand.

Cash A. If J or T falls to right, lead NINE and let it run (or cover if covered).


If both follow small on 1st round, lead towards Q. If K does not show up from LHO, go up with Q (restricted choice against JT).

thoughts?

fritz

[Jdmaine]

I need an extra trick to make 3nt from silent opps. I can get the extra trick from a 3-3 split in spades where I hold axxx-xxx, about a 36% chance. Or I can get a trick from jxx-qxx if both ace and king are on the same side. I have entries and enough stops in other suits, but I can’t try both without losing 5 tricks. Which option should I chose. I can’t find the odds of ace king being on the same side missing 7 cards

[smerriman]

Jdmaine, on 2022-September-17, 14:27, said:

I need an extra trick to make 3nt from silent opps. I can get the extra trick from a 3-3 split in spades where I hold axxx-xxx, about a 36% chance. Or I can get a trick from jxx-qxx if both ace and king are on the same side. I have entries and enough stops in other suits, but I can’t try both without losing 5 tricks. Which option should I chose. I can’t find the odds of ace king being on the same side missing 7 cards

It's probably better to start a new thread, than post in one that's 18 years old

But if everything were completely equal, the latter is about 49% - the rough idea is that someone must have the Ace, and then it's basically 50/50 which hand the King is in.

Though it's rare that everything is equal.

(To be fully accurate, if it's trick 1, there are 12 spots for the king in the same hand as the ace, and 13 spots in the other hand, making it 48%. But you get a little back if the A/K is a singleton on your left).

[pescetom]

smerriman, on 2022-September-17, 14:31, said:

It's probably better to start a new thread, than post in one that's 18 years old

But if everything were completely equal, the latter is about 49% - the rough idea is that someone must have the Ace, and then it's basically 50/50 which hand the King is in.

Though it's rare that everything is equal.

I know the forum software is a legacy, but it would be nice if there was some protection against necrology:)
At least this one is on thread.