I went through the Portsmouth reference, most of it anyway, and it left me uneasy. I had trouble putting my finger on exactly why, but a Post article
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...ST2009081301797
that helps me get it straight.
In the Portsmouth article the president goes on about Medicare. His initial comments don't seem to amount to much but on page 7 we find:
THE PRESIDENT: Well, first of all, another myth that we've been hearing about is this notion that somehow we're going to be cutting your Medicare benefits. We are not. AARP would not be endorsing a bill if it was undermining Medicare, okay? So I just want seniors to be clear about this, because if you look at the polling, it turns out seniors are the ones who are most worried about health care reform. And that's understandable, because they use a lot of care, they've got Medicare, and it's already hard for a lot of people even on Medicare because of the supplements and all the other costs out of pocket that they're still paying.
Now to the Post article, discussing some work on a possible bill:
In the Senate, where the Finance Committee is painstakingly crafting the only bill that has a chance to win support from both parties, Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) announced that his bipartisan working group had come up with a plan that would save the government money by 2019. With Congress in recess, the "Gang of Six" finance negotiators will probably continue to meet next week via teleconference, a Finance Committee aide said.
Baucus has declined to release details. But people involved in the talks said the plan would make more than $500 billion worth of changes to Medicare over the next decade, charging wealthy seniors more for prescription drug coverage, cutting $120 billion in payments to private insurance companies that serve some seniors and trimming projected payments to hospitals by $155 billion in an effort to spur efficiencies.
This is merely a sample. I could give similar examples with, say, cost and scope. What I get out of this is that no one, not you, not me, not Mr. Obama, knows what will be in the bill that reaches his desk. This is not a settles issue. Mr. Obama's explanation of "The Plan" is more a recital of a wish list. It is not possible to say what the bill will or will not do or will or will not cost because it is still in the ether. That's OK, but it's not OK to call concerns about the effect on Medicare a "myth". I realize the Baucus approach may not be the one favored by Obama, but as the CBO report of a while back makes clear, Obama may not be able to reconcile everything in his wish list while staying within budge constraints.
I am going to go out on a limb here and predict that there will be a bill and that Mr. Obama will sign it. The ex-governor of Alaska might wish to have the tribute "effectively killed health care reform for the foreseeable future" as something that she can put above the fireplace next to the moose heads, but others would want no part of such an honor. Better to have "worked across party lines to get a bipartisan bill through the House and Senate and then signed by the President". This is a tribute that first and foremost a guy can tell his grandchildren about, but it can also be the basis for a very strong political career.
So I will place my bet: We will have a bill. Even more, I suspect I will like it (but not love it) when I see it. But I do not think any of us have seen it yet.