I agree with most of the AC's comments. Whilst they have certainly improved on the TD's ruling, they have not followed through their logic quite far enough.
Quote
However, we feel that 9 tricks will always be made as
A} the Q diamonds lead is far from clear, and
B} even if the Q♦ is led, it is normal to play North for the ace after North has opened and South has made a pre-emptive raise.
Comment B is correct and 3NT would almost certainly make 9 tricks on the lead of
♦Q.
However, comment A is also correct. Without the benefit of seeing all four hands, North rates to be relatively short in diamonds and it looks normal to lead the suit in which the opening leader's side is known to hold a 9-card fit. On a spade lead, normal play leads to 10 tricks.
Even allowing for sympathetic weighting to the non-offending side for the possibility of
♦Q lead and/or a very lazy play be East on a spade lead, an appropriate weighting for the score an assigned 3NT contract might be:
25% of 3NT = by E , N/S -600; plus
75% of 3NT+1 by E, N/S -630.
However, when the matchpoints from this weighting are compared with the matchpoints from the table result of 5
♣+1 by E, N/S -620, it seems likely that the scorers would conclude that there is no damage from the alleged infraction.
But was there an infraction at all?
Quote
We feel that in accordance with the Director's ruling UI has been conveyed by the slow 3NT
True.
Quote
and that pass is an logical alternative to bidding 4D, especially as East may be balanced.
Also true, but in order to merit an adjustment, pass would also have to be demonstrably suggested by the UI. I agree with the scepticism of Frances, Robin and Paul on this point. In all UI cases it is imperative for the TD/AC to consider all likely hand types which could give rise to a hesitation. Whilst I agree with Bluejak that East's hesitation suggests doubt, it is not clear from the UI what makes East doubtful. West's actual hand has two potentially useful features which may be just what East was hoping for if he has guessed to bid 3NT on a good hand without an obvious route to 9 tricks on his own.
It is important to remember that an adjustment under Law 16A can only be made when the UI
demonstrably suggests one logical alternative over another.
1♠ Dbl 3♠
P P 3NT[1] P
4♦ P 5♣ P
P P
Result
5♣ =
NS -620