[hanp]

Scoring: IMP

3NT* - p - 7C

* = gambling

---

Your call.

[gwnn]

huh.

i dont bid 5 card suits on the 7 level.

[Phil]

Depends who I'm playing against.

LHO's hand is very well defined. Assuming RHO isn't wearing a straitjacket and understands what he needs to bid a grand, I would expect 7♣ to be cold. There aren't any bad breaks to beat it.

A representative hand looks like: Axx AKxxxxx, Ax, x (plus or minus the ♠Q). I'm hoping he doesn't have the ♥Q because he can bid the cold 7N (and might have already anyway). With a hand like this we can expect to lose 5-7 tricks or 1100 - 1700. Any of these outcomes is a nice result against -2140.

I don't see why RHO would try to play games with us here when he has no idea what my hand is and whether or not my hand is suitable for a save. Why would he bid a speculative grand just because I might dive at this vulnerability?

He might have caught his fish, but this looks like a good one to take the plunge on.

I also don't see any reason why my counterpart won't be in this identical position, but a knowledge on my teammates system might help.

[kfay]

Well... I wouldn't have bid over... seems strange that I'd probably pass any call up to and including 6♣ but now...

Seems like a guess to me. But I don't know... I do feel like they're going to make it so maybe I'm being dumb.

[gwnn]

I'd like to have opps who always bid their 5 card suits on the 7 level

[jdonn]

Two things wrong with bidding. You need 6 or more tricks to show a reasonable profit even if you're right (5 for a small profit), and partner could have Jxxx of clubs if the 7♣ bidder has like Axxx AKQxx Axx x. No thanks!

Phil not only queen of spades, what if RHO has the queen of hearts like in my example (he won't bid 7NT with that he needs a heart ruff)? AJT9 of diamonds?!?! Your opponents bid a grand on the first round of the auction, you hold this, and your estimate of tricks goes as high as 8?? Mine goes as low as 3, sometimes even when the grand was down if partner had a club trick.

[bluecalm]

Interesting.
I am afraid I will not collect enough tricks. I have no idea how often partner has Jxxx ♣ there (I guess 10%?). Another danger is that sometimes they will bid 7NT and collect 13tricks when partner has this Jxxx of ♣.

I am not bidding it but I wouldn't be surprised if it's slightly +EV vs sane opponents.

Thinking about it more, responder should have a lot of hearts which may require a ruff to be established (hence no 7NT bid). In that case we are guaranteed to have a decent fit it would be sad though if partner was 6-3-2-2 or something and we take 3 tricks in diamonds having 7 or 8 in spades available.

[Phil]

jdonn, on May 3 2010, 12:33 PM, said:

Two things wrong with bidding. You need 6 or more tricks to show a reasonable profit even if you're right (5 for a small profit), and partner could have Jxxx of clubs if the 7♣ bidder has like Axxx AKQxx Axx x. No thanks!

Phil not only queen of spades, what if RHO has the queen of hearts like in my example (he won't bid 7NT with that he needs a heart ruff)? AJT9 of diamonds?!?! Your opponents bid a grand on the first round of the auction, you hold this, and your estimate of tricks goes as high as 8?? Mine goes as low as 3, sometimes even when the grand was down if partner had a club trick.

What do you think the odds of this going down are? As I said, this depends on the quality, etc., of your opponents, but I'd say against competent opposition its less than 5%.

You think a r/w 3N opener is making the call on AKQxxxx (we have the 10)? (LOL?) For this parlay to be right, RHO has to have a small stiff too.

3 tricks? Really? That would be a really bad day when I'm only taking the ♦KQ and a long trump, when we infer RHO doesn't have a stack. I'm sorry but this isn't realistic at all.

4 -5 tricks is a small loss / small gain, and RHO may make the losing decision to pull to 7N sometimes on AKQxxx, which can be a huge gain if pard has Txxx (We can probably can't get squoze).

8 tricks is unrealistic on my part I admit, but 6-7 (9-12 IMPs without checking) tricks seem very possible and represent very nice pickups.

[mikeh]

Bidding is being superman.....and RHO may be holding the kryptonite.

In addition to the reasons others have advanced for his not biddng 7N, consider what he should/would bid with say AQ AKQxxx AJ109x void, if 3N promised a solid suit.....maybe he shouldn't bid grand, but how can he ask if partner holds AKQJxxx or AKQxxxxx? (Of course, on this layout even those holdings are inadeqaute, but the contract would be fine, single dummy)

And even AKQxxxx gives him play.

I don't think he rates to be void, and mention this only to emphasize the degree to which bidding is a mastermind action.

[Cyberyeti]

Your serious chance of gain is where the 7C bidder has Ax, AKxxxxxx, none, xxx or similar and partner say Qxxx, x, Axxxxx, xx.

The downside is also pretty large, particularly if 7C isn't making which is a possibility. Wouldn't you bid 7C with AQx, AKQ10x, Axxx, x ? Unlucky if opener doesn't have the JC and a 7 level contract might not be pretty.

I don't think I sac, but it could very well be right.

[Jlall]

Han,

I'm sure I would not sac here, but this may be one of those positions where people are naturally much too risk averse so maybe I am wrong.

[rogerclee]

Here are some numbers I made up, which I do not claim to be accurate in any way, except that I find them to be within reason. I operated under the assumption that their likelihood of making and the number we were down was not correlated.

down         7C making         7C down     % likelihood

4  (800)         16             -14                3
5  (1100)        14             -15                8
6  (1400)        12             -17               20
7  (1700)        10             -18               27
8  (2000)         4             -19               24
9  (2300)        -4             -20               14
10 (2600)       -10             -21                4

EV:             6.7            18.08

In terms of bidding 7D:

If 7C has 75% chance to make, EV is .505

If 7C has 80% chance to make, EV is 1.744

if 7C has 85% chance to make, EV is 2.983

If 7C has 90% chance to make, EV is 4.222

If 7C has 95% chance to make, EV is 5.461

The point at which bidding 7D has neutral expectation is 72.96%.

[rogerclee]

Cyberyeti said:

Your serious chance of gain is where the 7C bidder has Ax, AKxxxxxx, none, xxx

uhhhhhhhh...

[jdonn]

Phil, on May 3 2010, 01:51 PM, said:

You think a r/w 3N opener is making the call on AKQxxxx (we have the 10)? (LOL?)

Almost everyone does this. Jlall (and some people he has talked about this to) is the only person I've ever met in my life who even considers the vulnerability when opening a gambling 3NT. So if his partner has a singleton what is he supposed to do, assume the suit won't run??

Phil, on May 3 2010, 01:51 PM, said:

8 tricks is unrealistic on my part I admit, but 6-7 (9-12 IMPs without checking) tricks seem very possible and represent very nice pickups.

We still seem to be living on different planets. You are just giving your partner every card in the deck that rho (or lho) wouldn't absolutely need for their bids. Why wouldn't they still have some/most/all of those cards?

[Jlall]

Oh they opened 3N? LOL yeah I'd save all day, I thought it went 2N p 7C hahhaa and I was like wow I would never save but maybe thats nasty.

[hanp]

The 7C bidder was Elly Schippers, former women international for the Netherlands. A very trustworthy player.

Frans Borm (former open internationalist) bid 7D.

Before tabling dummy his partner said she had jack fourth in a minor. Fortunately it was in diamonds.

7D goes for 1100, 7C is cold.

[Free]

They didn't have 7NT?

[hanp]

No.

[jdonn]

The one thing I wouldn't worry about is them having 7NT, if it's good enough for them to bid later then they would have bid it the first time.

[Jlall]

jdonn, on May 4 2010, 10:34 AM, said:

The one thing I wouldn't worry about is them having 7NT, if it's good enough for them to bid later then they would have bid it the first time.

Yeah I mean I wouldn't be surprised if it made on 3-3 hearts or the HJ coming down but they won't bid it.