Posted 2010-June-21, 09:32
There are three lines, aren't there?
(1) Spade to the queen, planning to guess what to do if it holds.
(2) ♠J, club ruff, ♥A, ♠A, diamonds from the top. Loses when someone has ♠Kxx/Kxxx and 1 diamond, or LHO has ♠Kxxx and 2 diamonds
(3) Ruff two clubs, dentist's coup, trumps from the top. Loses when someone has ♠Kx and ♦xxx, or we lose an extra trump trick through an overruff.
(1) is obviously much worse than the other two, unless you think they're likely to give away the position of the king. That depends upon what you think of the opponents - the range of abilities in a junior European Championship is quite wide.
Comparing (2) with (3), both lines lose against a layout one hand has two spades and three diamonds. However, for (3) to fail, ♠K also has to be in the short hand, whereas for (2) to fail ♠K has to be in the long hand.
The secondary chances of failure probably roughly balance out, so I'd say that (3) is rather better than (2). It's also, I would think, well over 80%.
I like (3).
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn