[the hog]

"You are still a little shell shocked after the 1st board, so you PASS this fine collection. "

Seriously, the only reason you would pass this is that you have mis sorted your hand. You see this sort of thing quite often from middle rank players who try to be smart or "walk the dog" or similar. They nearly always end up paying for it. If you have a bid, make it! The hand you quote in the above post is a case in point. Bidding 7S is insane as it is a total shot in the dark. A 4S opening at least involves your partner in the decision making process.

[paulhar]

The_Hog, on Aug 11 2004, 05:32 PM, said:

"I think there is a fair case for being very conservative in slam bidding"

Disagree with this. I think there is a case for bidding 50%+ slams. Being very conservative is losing tactics.

There are very few absolutes in bridge.

On one memorable board from my youth, I bid an about 70% six club slam. This time I got lucky and got 920. When I looked at the matchpoints, I saw that if I had bid TWO clubs and make six, I would have got 7 out of 8 matchpoints, as there was only one other score higher than +140. I had foolishly given 7 to 1 odds on this slam. (It was +400, so if I was bidding 5C anyway, I was risking all the matchpoints for none )

In theory, even playing against a good team, if there are no sacrifice issues involved, you need a little better than 50% to bid a slam. Even a good team will have an accident once in a great while, playing in a bad strain or going to a grand or being dropped in a forcing bid or having the wheels come off their relay system. In any of these instances, you'd rather not be in the 50% slam. After all, your teammate might have made some bodacious bid making it very hard to reach a decent contract at the other table, something that wouldn't be clear from your opponents' silence.

The worse your opponent's teammates are (these may be the pairs sitting in your direction in a MP game), the higher percentage you need to bid the slam, since there's more accident IMPs or MPs available to you only if you bid a game.

All this changes if a likely result at other tables (the other table in a match) could be +800 against your teammates' sacrifice or the like.

[Free]

I agree with you Paulhar on a certain level. If you bid a slam, it should be more than 50% makeble, otherwise you just need luck, and that's never on our side.

In weak competitions, you never need to bid slam, since your opponents won't reach it anyway, so just win by playing better than them. I've known a team which was known to 'never bid a slam', and they did quite well. Ofcourse, they didn't get to top level with that attitude, but in fact they NEVER bid a slam! Opps bid 3 slams, 2 went down, they were the big winners.
However, if you look at the top bridge players, they win because they bid their slams and make them. We had a thread about why the Italians always win a while ago, and this was one of the reasons. They have a sharp sense for slams, and they play and defense is almost flawless. If you want to win much imps, you need slams imo, just to make a difference. I read a while ago that the 'play-technique' isn't the field where you can improve and where you'll win bigtime in these topclass tourneys, these days you need to devellop a bidding system which can find slams with the most accuracy as possible, and stay out of games when they're not possible.

BBO isn't something to compare this with, I know, but look at the facts:
- if you're in a sharp game and you make it, you gain lots of imps
- if you're in a normal or sound game, you might win a few imps by making overtricks
- if you bid and make a slam, you win bigtime

[pclayton]

The_Hog, on Aug 11 2004, 04:11 PM, said:

"You are still a little shell shocked after the 1st board, so you PASS this fine collection. "

Seriously, the only reason you would pass this is that you have mis sorted your hand. You see this sort of thing quite often from middle rank players who try to be smart or "walk the dog" or similar. They nearly always end up paying for it. If you have a bid, make it! The hand you quote in the above post is a case in point. Bidding 7S is insane as it is a total shot in the dark. A 4S opening at least involves your partner in the decision making process.

In 1986 if someone referred to me as a 'middle rank player', I would have been thrilled

[the hog]

Whoops sorry - I did not mean it the way you took it.

[the hog]

"I dont care much for slams"

"There are very few absolutes in bridge.
In theory, even playing against a good team, if there are no sacrifice issues involved, you need a little better than 50% to bid a slam. "

I found those two comments interesting. Over 14 boards from last night, here are 3 slams. You are playing against a good team.

KQx
Axxxx
Kxx
Kx

Axx
x
AQxxxxx
xx
------------------------------------------
Kx
KQxx
AKxxx
xx

AJx
Axxx
x
AJxxx
----------------------------------------------
xx
Kxx
AQxxx
Kxx

x
AQxx
JTx
AQJTx
-------------------------------------------

None of them are clear cut to make or to bid. You need to bid and make all three to TIE the match. Before anyone makes a smart aleck comment, no I did not go for 1100 on one of the other boards; they were virtually all pushes or a couple of imps either way.

I somehow think Paul and Whereagles might have lost this match by over 30 Imps.

[twcho]

Ron, your hands did not prove anything.

Hand 1. If 6D play be north, it is an excellent contract but it is normal to play by south, then the chance may just slightly better than 50% (good opp likely to lead C).

Hand 2. You have a sure loser in C, and you have to hope H breaks and you have to establish either C or D, seems that the total chance less than 50%.

Hand 3. Almost a straight 50% bear any ruff possibility.

So the result can be either way if cards are placed the other way round.

[Free]

1) 6♦ by north is EXCELENT, 6♦ by south is 50% (a little less - 0.00005% or so, cause someone might have a singleton ♣ and the other plays A and small).

2) Is a great slam imo! If the ♥ don't break, you can still finesse in ♠ to discard your ♣ loser. Combine your chances, imo this one is a fair amount above 50%.

3) I hate this one, it's on a finesse... I wouldn't bid it in either case with the tools I've got, unless I really need some imps.

[whereagles]

The_Hog, on Aug 12 2004, 09:34 AM, said:

I somehow think Paul and Whereagles might have lost this match by over 30 Imps.

Not a chance. If I were playing, I would be winning by 50 imps at the time, not losing by 30 as you were

[Free]

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight

[the hog]

"Ron, your hands did not prove anything."

What on earth are you talking about? I did not say they are in the refrigerator - read my post! What I said was that if you don't bid and make these 3 you will lose on each of them. The point is that if you play a strong team, they will bid slams of this sort. The slam bonus favours bidding 50% slams. Work it out. If you play against poor players there is an argument for staying out of them, but not against quality opponents.

[MickyB]

I disagree, it seems to me that saying out of a 55% slam is an excellent roll of the dice in a match that you otherwise expect to lose.

[inquiry]

The_Hog, on Aug 12 2004, 07:28 AM, said:

The slam bonus favours bidding 50% slams. Work it out.

Vulnerable if you don't bid a slam (let's say in hearts) that makes, you get 680 versus possible 1430. A difference of 750 points. If you bid the slam and it goes down one, you lose 100 versus the 650 you could have made, also 750 points.

You win 13 imps (or keep from losing 13 imps) when you bid a 50/50 slam that makes, and you lose 13 imps (or fail to win 13 imps) when you bid a 50/50 slam that goes down. I hardly see how "SLAM BONUS FAVORS" bidding these slams.. .it is a push.

Even if you go two (or one doubled), you avoid +650 and lose 200, that si 850, which is still 13 imps (takes 900 to get to 14).

So if a slam is EXACTLY 50% or better, the math shows no preference when vul. If the slam is less than 50-50 (needs a finessee AND a good break), the math favors not bidding it vul.....

Now to the situation when not vul. The slam bonus is 500, the game bonus you lose if it goes down in 300 then plus the trick score.

If you bid slam and it makes you win 11 imps, if you bid slam and it is down one, you lose the 450 you could have made in game, and you gain lose the 50 for going down, the same 500 pts and the same 11 imps. In a minor, you would gain 11 imps if right, but lose only 10 imps if wrong. Down two in the slam is the same 11 imps.

So either way you slice it, bidding slams need a 50% to break even (slighlty less if you are stickler for math when slam is in the minor)... the SLAM BONUS doesn't favor bidding slam or stopping with the slam is exactly 50-50.

Ben

[whereagles]

Trouble is.. how can you be sure a slam is on a finesse ONLY? For instance, slams on a 44 fit can go down on a 4-1 break (28%) on suit management problems, even when your side holds AKQJ of trumps and the finesse works. Even a solid 54 fit may have trouble opposite a 4-0 break (10%). And, have you considered the chance opponents won't even reach GAME?

It's never easy to calculate real odds at table.

[paulhar]

Naw, I wouldn't have lost by 30, I would have already been losing by 30 already so I need the three slams to go down to win!

I forgot something. My analysis is for MP or team matches. If you're playing a short BBO X-IMP tourney, then bidding a close slam is a good thing because you need to pick up tons of IMPs somewhere to win the tourney.

[inquiry]

whereagles, on Aug 12 2004, 10:00 AM, said:

Trouble is.. how can you be sure a slam is on a finesse ONLY? For instance, slams on a 44 fit can go down on a 4-1 break (28%) on suit management problems, even when your side holds AKQJ of trumps and the finesse works. Even a solid 54 fit may have trouble opposite a 4-0 break (10%). And, have you considered the chance opponents won't even reach GAME?

It's never easy to calculate real odds at table.

well if a 4-1 will get you, I assume a 5-0 will get you too, so the odds change.. instead of 28.26, it becomes 32.174.. but let's don't be pendantic about it. I understand what you mean...

My rule is not to bid any slam I can figure out needs a finessee and a good break in one or more suit. I am willing to risk a 5-0 split in one suit where they might get o ruff at trick one, but thats about it.

And yes, it is hard to figure out the odds.. my post was poking a hole in Ron's statement that the "ODDS FAVOR" bidding the slam. When in fact, they are exactly equal. And the odds are actually aGAINST bidding a grand slam, but that is a different issue.

ben

[mishovnbg]

Hi whereagles!
Did you try your skills playing poker? If not imho will be good idea to change the game you play . There is a big difference between pressure bidding and gamble. The right pressure bid must aim opps, not your own p. Have you regular p and how many years you play with him? If you have, will be nice to ask him what he think about your preempts with such hands... If you don't have the question "why" have clear answer...
Normally experts hate to guess, as well as to open high with unusual hands. They prefer to receive more info about board, include from opps and they believe in their right decision based on additional info.
Misho

[whereagles]

Misho: as I said, I would open the second hand 1S or a strong club if I'm playing a system that allows me find out about the key cards (S K, C A, D AQ). If I'm not playing a precise system, I'd be more than happy to risk losing a slam in order to play my 4S in peace and quiet.

Partner has nothing to do with this. Nor poker.

[Free]

A strong ♣ opening? You MUST be kidding, come on! Open 1♣ with something like this and you have no chance at all to find out about keycards, since opps will intervene like hell with ♥s or ♣s...

[whereagles]

I don't see what's the problem of opening a strong club. If they overcall my 1C with hearts, they would have overcalled a 1S opening just as well. If I had hearts instead of spades, there might be a preference in opening 1H, but as it is I can outbid them all the way to 4S, so I'm ok.

Besides, give pard a not-so-unlikely 1534 and they might regret the heart overcall. You don't always need to think in terms of the worst-case-scenario