mycroft, on 2010-December-22, 12:10, said:
"Normal" isn't relevant to score adjustment - it has the same problem as looking at the traveller. It is certainly the normal contract to reach ab initio, but if, without the MI from the failure to Alert, we say that South will pass (reasonable), then the auction will go 1H-p-3C-X; p-p-3H-p (repeating myself, if West bids 4H, that is clear use of UI). Is East going to raise automatically? Is it "likely" per Law 12C? Can East prove that she knew that it was a Bergen raise, and just forgot to Alert it? Of course, if it is, then it's going to make 9 tricks. But I'm not sure that *at this table* it would be likely reached.
Ok, I think I understand your point now. East's failure to alert creates UI and that UI may prevent EW from bidding a game they would perhaps ordinary have bid.
I think this is a tricky argument. I haven't heard such a thing before and I don't have an opinion about it yet. But I think that even with that, it would still be "likely" that EW end up in game:
Just because east forgot to alert 3
♣, it doesn't mean that it is not "likely" (as per law 12C) that he either knows immediately what it means (and just forgot the alert itself) or that he will remember later when west bids hearts. So east is still "likely" to make the right bid, either directly over 3
♣X or as a catch-up later in spite of the missing alert.
Opposite a bergen raise east will probably (very "likely") think his hand is worth an invitation or better.
So within being "likely", east's pass was (1) systemically invitational, leading to an obvious acceptance by west, (2) just marking time with the intention of bidding game later, or (3) temporary just a pass but when west removes to hearts he will feel compelled to raise to take insurance. In either of those cases (that are "likely") the game will be bid.