wclass___, on 2011-February-25, 14:52, said:
But maybe he has ♠Qxxxx ♥Q9xx ♦AQx ♣x and simple ♦ finesse is needed. Hard to assess.
I suspect that is not going to be good enough. South wins the diamond queen and clears spades. They win 3
♠ and 2
♦.
The bidding is difficult to place in context. South has five or six spades to the Queen-nine at best. No club honor, and at most the
♥QJ. So we can mark him with the diamond ACE and in all likelyhood the
♦Q and probably the
♦J. They are primed to win 3
♠ and 2
♦ if we play on diamonds. The best hope is the South has either any four hearts or specifically the heart QJ9 In that case, running all four clubs will lead to discard problems for him. After we play the first five tricks (
♠A and
♣QJAK, he needs to come down to 8 cards. He can not keep enough spades, hearts and diamonds among those eight cards to cause problems. If he discards a low heart (not the nine), he can't have held the QJ9 tripleton. If he discards
♦QJ you know what to do. If he discards two low hearts and a low diamond, play him for four hearts initially and duck a heart. If he keeps a bunch of spades and discards one heart and only low diamonds, you still have to play him for 4
♥ and duck a heart. If he discards nine of hearts and the
♦Q, it is harder. Does he have QJ tight in hearts and still have AJ of diamonds? Or has he got stiff diamond Ace. Or was the nine a trick from Q9x, or QJ9x.
Anyway, run clubs and try to work it out.