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Contract is 7♣S. That dastardly devil West leads trump.
What hand do you win the trump lead in, and how do you go about bringing this Grand Slam home?
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How do you make this Grand?
#1
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Posted 2011-April-13, 10:43
Contract is 7♣S. That dastardly devil West leads trump.
What hand do you win the trump lead in, and how do you go about bringing this Grand Slam home?
"It's not enough to win the tricks that belong to you. Try also for some that belong to the opponents."
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"One advantage of bad bidding is that you get practice at playing atrocious contracts."
-Alfred Sheinwold
"Learn from the mistakes of others. You won't live long enough to make them all yourself."
"One advantage of bad bidding is that you get practice at playing atrocious contracts."
-Alfred Sheinwold
#2
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Posted 2011-April-13, 12:03
I see two lines:
A: Win the trump in hand, play the ♠T to the Ace, cash the ♥AK pitching a spade and play the ♠Q from the board. If the King obliges, draw trump and claim. If the King does not drop, ruff a diamond, ruff a spade and hope trump are 2-2. In a vacuum, I make this line about 41% ((.68 x .40) + (.28 x 50)). In reality, its better than this since LHO is much more likely to have 2-3 trump instead of a singleton. If we were to say he will 'never' lead a trump singleton, and since trump are not 4-0, I think the odds of a 2-2 now become more like 60% and a 3-1 closer to 40, which make the success of this line 48%.
B: Start on a crossruff - win in hand, ♦A, ruff ♦, ♥AK (discarding spade), ruff ♥, ruff ♦, ruff heart and trump. I'll make on a spade finesse, or if I can guess a ♠ + ♦ squeeze, so I'm getting 50% from the get-go + some points for the ♦K dropping. Calculating the squeeze odds seems dependent on what I find out in the red suits, but it seems LHO would have to have a lot of hearts for the squeeze to be right. Depending on the auction, an evil LHO might lead a spade looking at the K. Obviously thats great for me here, but surely it is a consideration for the success of the spade finesse.
"B" looks superior to me.
A: Win the trump in hand, play the ♠T to the Ace, cash the ♥AK pitching a spade and play the ♠Q from the board. If the King obliges, draw trump and claim. If the King does not drop, ruff a diamond, ruff a spade and hope trump are 2-2. In a vacuum, I make this line about 41% ((.68 x .40) + (.28 x 50)). In reality, its better than this since LHO is much more likely to have 2-3 trump instead of a singleton. If we were to say he will 'never' lead a trump singleton, and since trump are not 4-0, I think the odds of a 2-2 now become more like 60% and a 3-1 closer to 40, which make the success of this line 48%.
B: Start on a crossruff - win in hand, ♦A, ruff ♦, ♥AK (discarding spade), ruff ♥, ruff ♦, ruff heart and trump. I'll make on a spade finesse, or if I can guess a ♠ + ♦ squeeze, so I'm getting 50% from the get-go + some points for the ♦K dropping. Calculating the squeeze odds seems dependent on what I find out in the red suits, but it seems LHO would have to have a lot of hearts for the squeeze to be right. Depending on the auction, an evil LHO might lead a spade looking at the K. Obviously thats great for me here, but surely it is a consideration for the success of the spade finesse.
"B" looks superior to me.
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#3
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Posted 2011-April-13, 12:58
Why in your line A would you play ace then queen of spades lol?
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#4
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Posted 2011-April-13, 13:00
JLOGIC, on 2011-April-13, 12:58, said:
Why in your line A would you play ace then queen of spades lol?
Why does it hurt?
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#5
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Posted 2011-April-13, 13:01
Because sometimes RHO has 4 of them?
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#6
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Posted 2011-April-13, 13:01
JLOGIC, on 2011-April-13, 13:01, said:
Because sometimes RHO has 4 of them?
(headslap)
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#7
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Posted 2011-April-13, 16:26
It would be fun to win the trump in hand, play the ♠T to the A, then a low spade off dummy.
Please note I said "fun" and not "smart".
Please note I said "fun" and not "smart".
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#8
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Posted 2011-April-13, 17:13
Phil, on 2011-April-13, 13:01, said:
(headslap)
By the way, as he indirectly points out, I can make with RHO having 4-2 in the blacks. This gives "A" a lot more credit (and might well be superior)
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#9
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Posted 2011-April-13, 18:04
This hand gets weird late in the play. I mean, one alternative line is to simply ruff one diamond and then finesse spades. That hook is allowed to work. But, at about the 8-card ending, things get Geza Ottlik weird and geavily conditional.
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