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Speaking of whether or not opener should run, here's a slightly different auction:
From the Australian Bidding Forum Hand Four
1D-P-P-X-P-P-?
A lot of the discussion was about whether or not opener should have pulled with 4432. It's not the exact same (since responder still has a chance to run), but it does have a lot of parallels with the OP auction.
respond to double
#41
- - - A AKQJT9876543
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Posted 2011-August-15, 18:57
Wayne Somerville
#42
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Posted 2011-August-15, 23:46
Cool. So is the 75% shot at getting a partscore-penalty (200/500) better than your shot of finding game if you bid?
#43
- Csaba the Hutt
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Posted 2011-August-16, 02:33
Antrax, just because declarer has 5 clubs, he is not going to make it automatically. The points will be after him and despite what you might think, dummy will not have a lot of entries to finesse trumps through us so many times.
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
George Carlin
George Carlin
#44
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Posted 2011-August-16, 03:11
I mostly worry about the layout where dummy has some shortness and we can't draw trumps fast enough. Is it really that difficult to get to seven tricks in clubs when you have half the deck and a 5-2 or 5-3 fit, even with clubs breaking badly?
#45
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Posted 2011-August-16, 03:13
5-3 fit? 
I don't have the numbers in front of me but dummy had 3 cards something like 5% of the times that his partner had 5 cards. But that's OK, you're trying to make a point...
I don't have the numbers in front of me but dummy had 3 cards something like 5% of the times that his partner had 5 cards. But that's OK, you're trying to make a point...
This post has been edited by gwnn: 2011-August-16, 03:13
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
George Carlin
George Carlin
#46
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Posted 2011-August-16, 03:32
Okay, so 5-2. 4-4, 4-3. I don't know, I'm just really not sure how easy this is to beat and how likely it is we're missing game. Mike Lawrence advocates you only sit for a doubled low-level contract if you can guarantee drawing declarer's trumps early, and you have sure trump tricks. I'm trying to understand if I understood him wrong, or if people disagree with this view.
#47
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Posted 2011-August-16, 03:45
Antrax, on 2011-August-16, 03:32, said:
Okay, so 5-2. 4-4, 4-3. I don't know, I'm just really not sure how easy this is to beat and how likely it is we're missing game. Mike Lawrence advocates you only sit for a doubled low-level contract if you can guarantee drawing declarer's trumps early, and you have sure trump tricks. I'm trying to understand if I understood him wrong, or if people disagree with this view.
You understood him correctly. It seems some disagree with that advice.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.