[Antrax]

Playing simple 2/1

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Sitting east, I had a difficult time deciding between 7♥ and 7NT. I tried counting tricks, got to 11 in NT (AKQ♣, AK♦, AKQxxx♥, A♠) and since I don't really know how to visualize, figured 7♥ is safer. It still won 100% of the matchpoints, but I'm wondering how I could know to get to 7NT (the hand was a complete laydown, partner had Kx spades and KJxx clubs, as well as JT9 hearts just in case it's a bad break).

[Cyberyeti]

 Antrax, on 2011-August-29, 00:45, said:

Playing simple 2/1

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Sitting east, I had a difficult time deciding between 7♥ and 7NT. I tried counting tricks, got to 11 in NT (AKQ♣, AK♦, AKQxxx♥, A♠) and since I don't really know how to visualize, figured 7♥ is safer. It still won 100% of the matchpoints, but I'm wondering how I could know to get to 7NT (the hand was a complete laydown, partner had Kx spades and KJxx clubs, as well as JT9 hearts just in case it's a bad break).

Bid 6♦ over 6♣, partner will bid 6♠, what can partner have ? K♠, A♦, K♣, that's 12 on top if the hearts run, where are you getting the 13th from in hearts that you're not getting it from in NT ? If partner has a doubleton diamond and not ♣KJxx or ♦Q or ♠Q, but he needs at least one more high card, and J♥/J♠ would be unlucky, J♦ would give you a finesse, ♣Kxxx would give you break and squeeze possibilities.

I'd probably bid 7♥ playing 2/1, but 7N playing 4M Acol as I'd know partner had 4 clubs so 7N can't be no play.

[Antrax]

What is the 6♦ bid after a specific king reply? Some kind of king cue?

[Mbodell]

Different people play 6♦ different ways. Some play it shows the diamond K and asks for more help for 7. Others play it asks about diamonds. In both cases it suggests that you are quite interested in 7 but need more than partner has shown. Partner has the ♦A and the ♣K and 12-14 points. You are missing ♠KQJ, ♥J, ♦QJ, and ♣J which is 11 points of which partner has 5-7. Would partner by pass a 4 card spade suit to bid 1nt (or show it before showing 3 hearts over nmf)? If not then partner must be 3=3=3=4 or 3=3=2=5 or 2=3=3=5 or maybe 2=3=2=6. If partner would then there are more shapes he could be 4=3=3=3 or 4=3=2=4 as well. The hands where hearts are better are mostly only the ones where he has 2 diamonds and you can ruff a diamond in the short hand (the only other good extra heart chance is a ruffing spade finesse). In contrast, there are a number of hands where nt is better than hearts. Any hand they get an opening lead ruff, plus a number of hands where hearts don't split but you have 4 clubs, 4 diamonds, 3 hearts, and 2 spades (or move a minor trick to a third spade trick). So I think 7 has a pretty high chance of making, and I'm not sure which is safer 7nt or 7♥.

And I think safety matters more than 10 points here, because I think it is instructive though that 7♥ was worth 100% of the matchpoints. Partner has 12-14 and you have a control rich 22 and a major fit and a stiff and with 34 to 36 combined including all the A and all of the K (except maybe the spade K) you still were the only pair in 7. Out of curiosity, do you know how many matchpoints 6nt making 7 was worth? In most fields you don't need to bid 7 much of the time. Just finding slam can be pretty good, and playing 6nt might well be a pretty high probability of making (6 or 7) for a good score.

[P_Marlowe]

 Antrax, on 2011-August-29, 01:58, said:

What is the 6♦ bid after a specific king reply? Some kind of king cue?

It asks for the King of diamond, unless you already denied the king.

Regarding oyur first question:

Alternative, you could have bid 3H instead of 4NT.

3H is forcing, showing SI, the advantage being, that you have enough room
to find out, what partner happens to hold.

You alredy know, that you wont stop below 6H, and if you dont have
sophisticated methods after 4NT, not really needed, uless you play at the
highest level, you give your self the chance to hear p describe his hand.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[Antrax]

 Mbodell, on 2011-August-29, 02:13, said:

Out of curiosity, do you know how many matchpoints 6nt making 7 was worth? In most fields you don't need to bid 7 much of the time. Just finding slam can be pretty good, and playing 6nt might well be a pretty high probability of making (6 or 7) for a good score.

Here's the scoresheet for that board:
0.00% 50 100.00%
14.29% -230 85.71%
28.57% -260 71.43%
50.00% -520 50.00%
50.00% -520 50.00%
71.43% -800 28.57%
85.71% -1010 14.29%
100.00% -1510 0.00%

I have no clue how game can be missed, and I know the table that went down went down in 7♦.

[Antrax]

We play checkback stayman with inv+ hands, so if I understand correctly, for us 3♥ is nonforcing.

[P_Marlowe]

 Antrax, on 2011-August-29, 02:37, said:

We play checkback stayman with inv+ hands, so if I understand correctly, for us 3♥ is nonforcing.

Depends of course on agreement, but for us 2H showes also a min, which would make the 3H bid forcing.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[Mbodell]

 Antrax, on 2011-August-29, 02:35, said:

Here's the scoresheet for that board:
0.00% 50 100.00%
14.29% -230 85.71%
28.57% -260 71.43%
50.00% -520 50.00%
50.00% -520 50.00%
71.43% -800 28.57%
85.71% -1010 14.29%
100.00% -1510 0.00%

I have no clue how game can be missed, and I know the table that went down went down in 7♦.

So it is pretty instructive that if you bid 6nt and made 7 you would have also got 100% (since you were the pair in 7H). Also, if you bid 6H and made 7 you would have received 93% (since you would have tied the other pair in 6). So what do you think is safer 7H, 7nt, 6nt, or 6H and do you think the bid you choose (from 7H, 7nt, and 6nt) makes enough that you want to risk a 93% to try for a 100% where if you are wrong and it is down 1 you turn a 93% into a 7%? In a better field it likely not quite as extreme because many people will be in 6H, but you'll still likely to get an ave+ for 6H in many fields.

Also, with respect to the 3H being forcing or not, you may want to consider 2-way nmf where your hand could have bid an artifical 2♦ which would ask the same question but create an unambiguous game force (the invitational hands would go through 2♣). I'm not as familiar with a checkback stayman system where 2♣ is always inv+ checkback (as usually I see people play either 2-way new minor force; or regular new minor force where your 2♣ call would have been to play).

[Antrax]

Thanks MBodell, these considerations are interesting and I hadn't given them much thought at the table.
We're learning 2-way NMF (and XYZ) and planning to integrate it. Currently we're stuck with checkback stayman, though, until we're done discussing the new stuff.

[han]

Generally slam investigations shouldn't be madee at the 6-level, they should be made below 4M. Jumping to 4NT over 2H and then wondering what slam you should bid over partner's answers is a very bad sign. Judging from the changing focus in this thread, you are already on the right track.

[Antrax]

Yes, 4NT felt like it was stealing precious bidding spade, but I didn't see a useful forcing call I could make. I won't splinter with an ace, and honestly I wasn't sure what 3♦ would show.

[BunnyGo]

 han, on 2011-August-29, 04:47, said:

Generally slam investigations shouldn't be madee at the 6-level, they should be made below 4M. Jumping to 4NT over 2H and then wondering what slam you should bid over partner's answers is a very bad sign. Judging from the changing focus in this thread, you are already on the right track.

Han, the forums lacked a simple elegance and clear teacher when you stopped posting. Math can't be that important, can it?

[han]

I didn't stop posting, I was on vacation. But math certainly is that important, no matter what that means.

[VM1973]

I guess I don't get it. So I'll just ruminate a little.

You got a top. That should mean something.
You figure you're cold for 11 tricks opposite partner's 7 count (♦A, ♣K). Since he's opened (theoretically 13 HCPs) surely there must be two more kings (or the equivalent) in there somewhere. Shouldn't that be worth 2 more tricks?
You have 43 ZPs opposite partner's promised 26 ZPs that puts you at 69 ZPs so statistically you're cold for 13.4 tricks.
Partner's most likely shapes are 4-4-3-2 or 5-3-3-2, both of which are more likely than a 4-3-3-3 shape. If partner has ♦A and ♣Kxxxxx that's probably enough for 7NT and he must surely have something more than that in the hand.

Edit: The only way 7♥ beats 7NT is if you need to ruff diamonds in dummy. So you'd need partner to hold:
♠QJ10x
♥Jxx
♦AJ
♣Kxxx

Except he can't hold that because he'd have bid 1♠ over 1♥ and even if he did there must still be play for 7NT considering clubs might go 3-3, you might have a squeeze, or you could fall back on finessing the ♦J.

Anyway I don't get why 7♥ is safer than 7NT. Couldn't hearts go 5-0 or a club lead get ruffed?

[Antrax]

4-3-3-3 isn't the most likely shape? Or do you mean given the bidding?

[TWO4BRIDGE]

This is a "poster child" hand for using 4S! kickback RKC when ♥ are trump -- because you can get an efficient ♠K reply :

1C - 1H
1NT - 2C!
2H! - 4S! ( kickback RKC )
5C (1/4) - 5S ( specific K-ask )
5NT ( ♠K; NT shows the asked for feature ) - 6C ( 2nd K-ask
6NT ( ♣K ) - ??

But now I can only count to 12 -- I don't know about the ♣J ... not to mention the ♥J.
I think I'll pass 6NT .

[VM1973]

 Antrax, on 2011-August-29, 07:52, said:

4-3-3-3 isn't the most likely shape? Or do you mean given the bidding?

I meant the likelihood a priori of any given hand occurring.
From http://www.durangobi...rSuitStats.html we learn that the chance of holding the following pattern is:

4-4-3-2 - 21.55 percent
5-3-3-2 - 15.52 percent
4-3-3-3 - 10.54 percent

So if you've been proceeding on the assumption that your partner is usually 3-3-3-4 when he opens or rebids 1NT then I will tell you that this is against the odds.

[BunnyGo]

One sidenote piece of advice (along the lines of MBodell above), in a club where most pairs didn't even get to a small slam you should "never" stretch for a grand.

More so, if you do ever bid a grand, bid the most likely grand to make; don't worry about minors vs majors vs NT. I learned this from Mark Leonard (I dunno if he posts here) after thinking for a long time and eventually bidding 7S when I knew 7D was slightly higher percentage to make. After 7S wrapped he said, "in this club, 7D is enough." (He was right, either would have been a top)

In bigger events, with more better players, etc. you should still strongly consider just taking the plus. The ten points rarely are worth stretching for if you're not sure it's there.

That said, Han is also right about bidding slower.

[vuroth]

 han, on 2011-August-29, 04:47, said:

Generally slam investigations shouldn't be madee at the 6-level, they should be made below 4M. Jumping to 4NT over 2H and then wondering what slam you should bid over partner's answers is a very bad sign. Judging from the changing focus in this thread, you are already on the right track.

I had the same feeling about 4NT, but since 3H isn't forcing here or in NMF, I really don't know what the right bid is over 2♥