[FrancesHinden]

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1♣ = strong, 16+ any (might be weaker with a lot of playing strength)
1♦ = negative
rest of the auction natural. Pass was not forcing over 2S.

Partner leads a low spade which is consistent with a singleton, or one of Kxx/Jxx/10xx
You win with the ace, declarer following low.

Now what?

[han]

Declarer is unlikely to hold a singleton club. On most hands where he does, partner would have bid 2C directly or would lead a club.

Thinking about it some more, it's almost impossible for declarer to hold 5 spades.

That makes declarer very likely to be 3-5-3-2, 3-5-2-3 or 3-6-2-2. On most of these hands it doesn't matter what we do, but there are a few hands where we should play diamonds. For example when we have 3 diamond tricks, or when declarer has K10x A109xx AJ AKx. Here we can always beat it, but a heart return would make it difficult for partner.

A club is right when declarer has J10x AJ10xx AQx KQ, certainly a possibility.

I'm sure a heart could also be right, but I don't see how a spade could be right. On the hands where a spade lead is needed to shorten dummy before the clubs are set up, an immediate diamond seems to be just as good.

I'm playing a diamond.

[Antrax]

Whoops, deleted.

[paulg]

I agree with Han, but would add that the danger of declarer holding ♠KJx increases the likelihood of a diamond being right.

[dwar0123]

I would lead trump.

Reasons
1. They are very light on points, making a cross ruff a likely way of making up for that lack of points.
2. Doesn't look to give up a trick.
3. I don't see declarer holding 5♠ with that auction but I do see him potentially having 1♣. If declarer has more then 1♣, we probably have natural ♣ tricks anyway.
4. I really want to deny as many ♠ ruff's by dummy as I can.

[gnasher]

FrancesHinden, on 2011-October-17, 02:29, said:

Partner leads a low spade which is consistent with a singleton, or one of Kxx/Jxx/10xx

Can partner have KJx or K10x?

[FrancesHinden]

Yes, sorry (although he might have raised spades if you give him enough shape outside + honours).
You lead MUD from 3 low, so he can't have that.

[han]

There's only 1 outstanding small spade so that was clear, but do you really lead mud in partner's suit? It seems to me that partner will often have a hard time figuring out whether you have 3 or 2. Of course this is always an issue when you lead mud, but especially in partner's suit it seems really important to me to lead a count card.

[cloa513]

I don't think the return matters the contract is hopeless anyway but return a heart. South never expected to be in 4♥. He has a mediocre 16HCP afterall he passed 2♠ and expected more from partner's 3♣ maybe 5-7HCP- certainly not 4

[FrancesHinden]

cloa513, on 2011-October-19, 05:28, said:

I don't think the return matters the contract is hopeless anyway but return a heart. South never expected to be in 4♥. He has a mediocre 16HCP afterall he passed 2♠ and expected more from partner's 3♣ maybe 5-7HCP- certainly not 4

My teammates were -620 on the hand. And you should always assume it matters, otherwise why not just not bother playing?

[han]

I was quite an interesting hand! I would like to see the layout and read your thoughts Frances.

[FrancesHinden]

I could also have posted this as an 'ATB' from both sides.
Declarer has

KJx
AK109x
AJ9
Kx

the easy way to beat this is to switch to a trump. If you do that, nothing can go wrong.
if you switch to a diamond, it's still off as long as (i) partner wins the first club and plays a trump, and (ii) you ruff the second club when played from dummy to organise your trump promotion
it is still off on a club switch as long as partner wins and plays a trump.

However, when a club was played at the table, your partner won the ace and cashed another club. He was concerned that declarer had KJx A109xx AKx Kx and as long as he stayed passive you have a trump trick to come.

At our table we defended 4Sx and were disappointed to lose 8 imps...

[phil_20686]

if you play a club partner can also return a diamond - its still off with 2c 1d 1s or 2c 1s 1 trump.