barmar, on 2011-November-14, 23:24, said:
4♠ is actually the book bid -- it prefers to play in a 7-card fit when it has a singleton (it doesn't care whether the singleton is in partner's suit or not). It does run simulations, and in some of my runs it chose to pass, and the simulations are a little less likely to pull when the singleton is in partner's suit. The simulations are also sensitive to the locations of the honors -- 3NT does much better when North has ♥Qxx rather than xxx (these are the kinds of details that are difficult to put into rules).
As I hopefully made clear in my OP, I'm perfectly happy with the fact that North is simulating -- I just want him to be simulating using the appropriate limitations on South's distribuion to get more meaningful results. The description of South's 3N should be:
2-4C; 4-5D; 2-3H; 2S; 18-19 HCP, not
2-5C; 3-5D; 2-4H; 2-3S; 18-19 HCP.