mcphee, on 2011-December-08, 05:30, said:
Double is for take out, and 4S sure appears to be the move. If I went for 1100 on this hand partner did not have a double or someone had 100 honors is trump 5 times.
Some days players hold AKxx x AQxx AJxx and make this take out dble and passing 4H dbled to me is not in the program.
It can be worse: He might hold:
♠AKxx
♥-
♦AQxx
♣AJxxx.
Nevertheless, 4
♥ rates to go down and 4
♠ is unlikely to make.
Dare I bring up the Law of Total Tricks?
I dont't really care whether trumps = tricks in this case. But I know that, most of the time, the total number of tricks doesn't really change with the location of honors. In other words, when we get a trick more in our contract, we would likely also have gotten a trick more on defense. The same holds for the opponents. I would estimate that the total number of tricks would be 17, but I may be wrong and it may be 18. (My estimate is based on total trumps, the duplication of shortness in partner's hand opposite mine and gut feeling.)
Let's score:
18 total tricks:
Our tricks in 4♠ Theirs in 4♥X Result if we bid and they pass at the other table
11 (+650) 7 (+800) -150: -4 IMP
10 (+620) 8 (+500) +120: +3 IMP
9 (-100) 9 (+200) -300: -7 IMP
8* (-500) 10 (-790) +290: +7 IMP
7 (-800) 11 (-890) +90: +3 IMP
*They start doubling
Conclusion: Hard to say which one is right.
17 total tricks:
Our tricks in 4♠ Theirs in 4♥X Result if we bid and they pass at the other table
11 (+650) 6 (+1100) -450: -10 IMP
10 (+620) 7 (+800) -180: -5 IMP
9 (-100) 8 (+500) -600: -12 IMP
8* (-500) 9 (+200) -700: -12 IMP
7 (-800) 10 (-790) -10: 0 IMP
6 (-1100) 11 (-890) -210: -5 IMP
Conclusion: Easy to say passing is right.
And now over to the next chapter because there is another way to lose lots of IMPs if you bid 4
♠:
In this, I have assumed that partner will pass if we bid 4
♠. But I could easily imagine that on the hands where we have 10 tricks and can make 4
♠, partner might get us to the five level. This leads to -100 where we would have gotten a juicy penalty, if only I would have been happy with what I had, rather than hope and wish for something better. In that case, the decision to bid costs us 600 (instead of winning 120) or 900 (instead of losing 180).
In short, bidding 4
♠ only wins
if they can make 4
♥X
and there are 18 total tricks.
Rik
I want my opponents to leave my table with a smile on their face and without matchpoints on their score card - in that order.
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