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Judgement

#1 User is offline   bluecalm 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 02:05



2 = gf clubs or bal
3 = 5spades - 4 clubs and 12-14hcp
3 = set spades
3NT = minimum (total junk bids 4S)
4C/4D = cuebids

Are we forcing slam now ? Or maybe 4 and pass if partner doesn't go beyong 4S is enough ?
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#2 User is offline   dake50 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 02:45

6NT.
I think I am on DJ or H10 finesse at worst.
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#3 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 04:30

View Postdake50, on 2012-August-29, 02:45, said:

6NT.
I think I am on DJ or H10 finesse at worst.

There is certainly merit in this to protect K and/or get a red suit lead at trick 1 which may take a finesse for me. Let's try a few sample hands that fit this auction:

KJxxx, xx, Kx, KQxx not a great slam, but good on a heart lead and not bad on a diamond lead, add J needs a heart lead or a finesse.
Kxxxx, Ax, Kx, Qxxx not a nice slam at all. Add J is on spade break plus 1 of 2 finesses, add J10 is good
Jxxxx, AQ, Kx, Qxxx yuck (but this is a 4 bid rather than 3N), add 10, J10 becomes not silly
KJxxx, Qx, Kx, KJxx I'm likely to get a trick on the lead, which would mean it was a finesse or Q dropping
KJxxx, Axx, x, KJxx I want to be in spades if partner has a stiff diamond rather than K, 6N is horrid, 6 a little better but not much
xxxxx, AQx, x, KQJx a poor slam, but improves a lot if the spades are 109xxx

I'd like to have a quantitative 4N or 5 available, but it doesn't seem like there's any room for this

My problem is that for choosing between spades and NT I really don't want to hear 4 over 4 if I don't know whether it's a singleton or the K. I don't think the likelihood of a slam being 70% is >50% so in a field that is not all experts, I certainly wouldn't bid a slam, and I might well have passed 3N.

In an all expert room, I probably punt 6 after bidding 4 unless 4 gets doubled in which case I pass whichever of 4 or 4N partner bids next as I think this changes the odds enough.
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#4 User is offline   Trinidad 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 06:22

Call me crazy, but I would have passed 3NT.

Rik
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#5 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 06:23

I would not force to slam. It depends a bit on whether partner can have an 11-count, which is what I would expect, or whether 12-14 really means high card points. Of course there is a quantitative invite available Cyberyeti, and it is called cuebidding. It is even better than a quantitative jump, because we show some honours on the way.

I think the auction could easily go:

1S - 2C
2S - 2NT
3C - 3S
3NT - 4C
4D - 4H
4S - 5C (confirming the ace)
5H - 5S
pass

For example, if partner has something like Kxxxx Axx x KQxx, I would expect him to bid slam for sure. He knows all his cards are good. In fact, I think that partner should move beyond 4S himself on this fine collection. Slam is not cold but on a dummy reversal it looks quite decent.

On a systems note, your auction through 3C is really good and you were far ahead of many pairs at this point. But after 3C you took away a lot of the gained ground by "jumping" to 3S, and now you are back to guessing. I would really like to ask for shortness after 3C. This looks natural to me, and will be useful on hands where we are merely looking for the best game, as well as when we have interest in a spades or clubs slam. You will need to have agreements on how to set trumps afterwards though.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

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#6 User is offline   jogs 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 07:00

View Postbluecalm, on 2012-August-29, 02:05, said:



2 = gf clubs or bal
3 = 5spades - 4 clubs and 12-14hcp
3 = set spades
3NT = minimum (total junk bids 4S)
4C/4D = cuebids

Are we forcing slam now ? Or maybe 4 and pass if partner doesn't go beyong 4S is enough ?


1.
1 - 2
2

2.
2 - 2
2NT

3.
2 - 2
3

In the following auctions what set of hands would each include?
How much does the 2 rebid suggests 6 spades?
Would partner rebid 2NT with 5332 min?
5=3=1=4. Isn't this a 3 rebid?

Rik's pass of 3NT is not unreasonable. Sounds like
at best a 50/50 slam.
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#7 User is offline   TimG 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 07:12

Quote

For example, if partner has something like Kxxxx Axx x KQxx, I would expect him to bid slam for sure.

Could opener have patterned out over 3 (by bidding 4 with this hand)?

I know this isn't a HCP max, but it sure is a good hand for "12-14" which just says to me "minimum opening bid".
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#8 User is offline   TimG 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 07:20

View PostTrinidad, on 2012-August-29, 06:22, said:

Call me crazy, but I would have passed 3NT.

Not real crazy in my book, but a bit conservative.

I would like to have been able to bid an invitational 4N over 3N. But, I suspect it would have been RKC for Spades.
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#9 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 07:58

View Posthan, on 2012-August-29, 06:23, said:

I would not force to slam. It depends a bit on whether partner can have an 11-count, which is what I would expect, or whether 12-14 really means high card points. Of course there is a quantitative invite available Cyberyeti, and it is called cuebidding. It is even better than a quantitative jump, because we show some honours on the way.

I think the auction could easily go:

1S - 2C
2S - 2NT
3C - 3S
3NT - 4C
4D - 4H
4S - 5C (confirming the ace)
5H - 5S
pass

For example, if partner has something like Kxxxx Axx x KQxx, I would expect him to bid slam for sure. He knows all his cards are good. In fact, I think that partner should move beyond 4S himself on this fine collection. Slam is not cold but on a dummy reversal it looks quite decent.

On a systems note, your auction through 3C is really good and you were far ahead of many pairs at this point. But after 3C you took away a lot of the gained ground by "jumping" to 3S, and now you are back to guessing. I would really like to ask for shortness after 3C. This looks natural to me, and will be useful on hands where we are merely looking for the best game, as well as when we have interest in a spades or clubs slam. You will need to have agreements on how to set trumps afterwards though.


Does anybody play 5 confirming the ace rather than showing AK (in a suit partner's shown length) ? I know I don't.

If I cue 4 I am not asking partner for anything quantitative, I'm telling him to cue bid particularly when he can have already bailed out if he had crap with 4 instead of 3N. If he cues diamonds, I cue hearts and he bids 4 I don't know if he has 12/13/14. I know he's shown minimum with 3N but there are some aceless 14s I'd describe as minimum, KJxxx, Qxx, Q, KQJx for example.

The problem with this hand is that partner doesn't know which cards are valuable, are you looking to bid the slam opposite K, KQ or do you need KQ, K

With my current partner, if I was cueing, I would start with 4 and follow up with 5 which is very unusual for us. Neither of these can be a shortage due to the previous auction, so it gives the impression that I was principally interested in the heart cue from partner, and if he doesn't give it when I go on suggests K and looking for no trumps so he will cue K but not a stiff. If he does show a heart cue and I bid 5, he will think I probably have the A/K but if he's looking at the K himself will probably pick that the heart control was more important than the diamond one.

With the cueing being ambiguous, I'd rather just make a quantitative invite because I think the slams are against the odds opposite the range of 12 counts he can hold, but significantly better for every extra point he has and I don't think you can ever be certain that partner has the right hand and nor can he as there just isn't room to find out about all the key cards and the K unless the small hand keycards and you happen to be playing 3041, where 4N-5(0/3)-5(Q?)-5(yes + K) tells it all.
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#10 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 07:59

View PostTimG, on 2012-August-29, 07:20, said:

Not real crazy in my book, but a bit conservative.

I would like to have been able to bid an invitational 4N over 3N. But, I suspect it would have been RKC for Spades.

Exactly the point I was making.
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#11 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 09:00

Cyberyeti, I started out replying to each of your sentences, but then I started disagreeing more and more strongly with what you wrote. While I wrote my response well meaning, I fear that my post would not have been read as such so I deleted it.

Basically I disagree that partner cannot evaluate his hand on this auction. He knows that we have a very strong balanced hand with spade support. He knows that aces, spade honors, and top club honors (his long side suit) are good. He also knows that 13 HCP is better than 12 HCP. And if partner asks for keycards, we almost certainly want to be in slam. And most of all, partner surely can't ask for the spade queen if he doesn't want to be in slam when we have the spade queen but not the heart king!

In response to your interesting initial question about people playing that 5C shows the club ace and not the AK, I can only say that yes, some people play that. Apparently you don't count me among "anybody", quite reasonably so, but I remember a recent hand from the world mind games mixed transnationals where a well known anybody held

AQJxxxx
Ax
Ax
xx

Playing with another well known anybody, the auction went:

1C - 2S (strong)
2NT - 3S
3NT - 4D
4H

The first anybody then bid 5D to confirm the diamond ace. You probably would have bid 5H (if you were going to bypass 4S). It seems to me that both styles occur, and I don't know which is more common worldwide. It would be interesting to hear what others play.

If you want the full hand you can probably find it in the second match of the first day of the round robin.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#12 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 09:08

View PostTimG, on 2012-August-29, 07:12, said:

Could opener have patterned out over 3 (by bidding 4 with this hand)?

I know this isn't a HCP max, but it sure is a good hand for "12-14" which just says to me "minimum opening bid".


I completely agree with you, but I think that bluecalm would have told us if partner could have patterned out.

I don't think that it is good to pass 3NT here, unless partner is showing a 5-2-2-4. It won't often happen, but I think that if partner bypasses 4S after we cue 4C and 4H, then slam will usually be good. That's already one reason why I think that cueing twice and then passing 4S is better than passing 3NT. Another reason is that I think that 4S has a better expectation than 3NT, especially if partner has shortness.

Maybe cueing twice and stopping in 4S is best though, especially if partner does open 5-4 11-counts.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#13 User is offline   lalldonn 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 09:22

I would cue one more time then pass 4. I think we can just look at this hand quantitatively. We have a flat 18, partner has a 5-4 12 or so, and 30 (with a slight upgrade for the spade fit) is not quite enough to be confident in slam. But since we may still have slam and partner will have a good idea how useful his hand is then we should try one more time. On han's example of Kxxxx Axx x KQxx I don't think partner should bid 4 over 4, in fact I don't think he should let us stop in 4 after the 4 cuebid. He said minimum for a 12-14 hand which is already questionable (but correct IMO), we tried for slam, and he has a nice minimum with great controls and extra shape.

Btw I don't think 4 should be last train here, just a cuebid in hearts. Partner was already 12-14 and then he was minimum for that, and he knows we slam tried even in that context so we could just bid 4 on a slam invitation with no heart control. How much more can we really want him to narrow his hand down compared to just working out if we have every suit controlled before bypassing 4?

Last comment, I find it completely weird that 3 set spades on this auction. If you had Hx of spades and were, say, 2335, wouldn't you want to show that?
"What's the big rebid problem? After 1♦ - 1♠, I can rebid 1NT, 2♠, or 2♦."
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#14 User is offline   quiddity 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 09:47

View Postlalldonn, on 2012-August-29, 09:22, said:

Btw I don't think 4 should be last train here, just a cuebid in hearts. Partner was already 12-14 and then he was minimum for that, and he knows we slam tried even in that context so we could just bid 4 on a slam invitation with no heart control. How much more can we really want him to narrow his hand down compared to just working out if we have every suit controlled before bypassing 4.


If this is true, then wouldn't partner tend to move or stop based on trump quality since every side suit has been cuebid?
Maybe it would be better to just bid 4S. We show a balanced slam invite with the ace of clubs and let partner work out whether his hand is a good minimum or a bad one. He's more likely to infer that we have good trump support since we don't bother showing anything else. Of course this could work out badly if he has Q and just needs a control bid there.
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#15 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 10:22

View PostTrinidad, on 2012-August-29, 06:22, said:

Call me crazy, but I would have passed 3NT.

It is not crazy, IMO, to observe that opener has shown a 12-14 range, and then (via 3NT) shown a minimum within that range.

With Kxxxx Axx x KQxx (Han's example), only a true bean counter would have made that 3NT call. His post alludes to strict HCP addicts when he gives that example, and I don't believe he was advocating that approach.
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#16 User is offline   lalldonn 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 10:24

View Postquiddity, on 2012-August-29, 09:47, said:

If this is true, then wouldn't partner tend to move or stop based on trump quality since every side suit has been cuebid?
Maybe it would be better to just bid 4S. We show a balanced slam invite with the ace of clubs and let partner work out whether his hand is a good minimum or a bad one. He's more likely to infer that we have good trump support since we don't bother showing anything else. Of course this could work out badly if he has Q and just needs a control bid there.

Or he might have always been planning to bid rkc but been cuebidding to learn more first or in case we could bid it, or he could have needed the heart control to move toward slam. And of course, if 4 does show a control then you can't go around denying one when you really have it.
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#17 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 11:04

View Posthan, on 2012-August-29, 09:00, said:

Cyberyeti, I started out replying to each of your sentences, but then I started disagreeing more and more strongly with what you wrote. While I wrote my response well meaning, I fear that my post would not have been read as such so I deleted it.

Basically I disagree that partner cannot evaluate his hand on this auction. He knows that we have a very strong balanced hand with spade support. He knows that aces, spade honors, and top club honors (his long side suit) are good. He also knows that 13 HCP is better than 12 HCP. And if partner asks for keycards, we almost certainly want to be in slam. And most of all, partner surely can't ask for the spade queen if he doesn't want to be in slam when we have the spade queen but not the heart king!


So he knows we have what we have rather than (probably a little less than) Axx, KQJ, KQJx, AJx where slam is poor, when we were looking for KQxxx, Axx, x, Kxxx instead (or KQxxx, xxx, A, Qxxx).

Quote

In response to your interesting initial question about people playing that 5C shows the club ace and not the AK, I can only say that yes, some people play that. Apparently you don't count me among "anybody", quite reasonably so, but I remember a recent hand from the world mind games mixed transnationals where a well known anybody held

AQJxxxx
Ax
Ax
xx

Playing with another well known anybody, the auction went:

1C - 2S (strong)
2NT - 3S
3NT - 4D
4H

The first anybody then bid 5D to confirm the diamond ace. You probably would have bid 5H (if you were going to bypass 4S). It seems to me that both styles occur, and I don't know which is more common worldwide. It would be interesting to hear what others play.

If you want the full hand you can probably find it in the second match of the first day of the round robin.

Apologies, typing too fast, it should have read "anybody ELSE".

Our auction would have been radically different in the hand from the mixed teams with also a SJS in it (although ours could be fit also) as I'd have assessed opener as too good for a weak no trump and opened a 4 card heart (or given the suit quality opened a non systemic 3 card club) plus we play 2N as denying a spade fit, so the auction would proceed 1?-2-3-3N( cue, most expensive suit)-4-4-5-5N(nothing else to cue, still interested in grand)-6-6. Knowledge that partner "doesn't have a weak no trump" helps here, and we find the grand opposite the same hand plus either minor suit queen or Kxx, Jxx, Jxx, AKQJ.
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#18 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 11:05

Yeah I am giving up after 4H 4S, wtf at forcing to slam our hand is not that good and partner couldn't even serious in context of already showing 12-14. Having 3 clubs is a serious danger sign with only 3 trumps, we will have to do something with the 4th club.

Partner can have KJxxx Axx x Kxxx easily for this auction for instance, or KJxxx xx Kx KQxx (this is not the worst slam ever but you definitely don't want to be in it).

I see I have given some of the same hands as cyberyeti in which case I don't understand why he is even moving beyond 4S
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#19 User is offline   quiddity 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 11:12

View Postlalldonn, on 2012-August-29, 10:24, said:

And of course, if 4 does show a control then you can't go around denying one when you really have it.


Even if it shows a control, why does it have to be mandatory? Partner's cuebid was forced since our hand is unlimited. As far as we know he is merely cooperating, so we shouldn't have to tell him about our heart control. We should be able to just bid 4S to clarify that we have an invitational hand.
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#20 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 11:23

View Postaguahombre, on 2012-August-29, 10:22, said:

With Kxxxx Axx x KQxx (Han's example), only a true bean counter would have made that 3NT call. His post alludes to strict HCP addicts when he gives that example, and I don't believe he was advocating that approach.


I don't agree with you. I am not bidding this hand the same as all other 12-counts. With KJxxx Ax xx KJxx I would bid 3NT but not go beyond 4S. With J10xxx AJ Kx QJxx I would bid 4S immediately.

Consider how much better our hand could be when we bid 3C, for example we could have KQxxx Axx x KQ10x! Of course, that is a hand that would move beyond 4S even after showing serious slam interest.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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