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Make the strongest play

#1 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2013-March-05, 12:25

I think what seperates the very good from the good is more often making the strongest play to give the contract a chance to go down, or give the contract a chance to make. These hands are all solvable but getting them right at the table every time is very difficult. Heres hand 1:



You are 4th seat and the bidding goes, P P 1S P 2C(drury), 2H from partner, 2S on your right (min with 5 spades), you bid 3H (you open very light and are w/r so no need to try for game), 3S on your left AP.

You lead the DK ruisnow, partner plays the 6 (std suit preference), RHO low. You shift to a heart, partner wins the ace and plays a heart. RHO wins the king, ruffs the 9 of diamonds in dummy (partner playing low standard present count) and runs the SQ to you (PARTNER PLAYING THE 9: EDIT). You play a heart, and surprisingly everyone follows. Your play?

Edited in partners play on the 2nd D
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#2 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2013-March-05, 16:40

We have score four tricks and need one more. The obvious is to play declarer for Jxx in clubs and I would have to be pretty sure that this is wrong before I try for something else. I guess the main problem is that this gives partner QJxxx in diamonds which means that he could easily afford the Q at trick 1 for his suit preference.

Still, I am not leading the club to give declarer a chance to score his Jack, I am not leading a diamond for a possible sluff.ruff, I have no more hearts, I am leading a trump. I look forward to learning why this is wrong.
Ken
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#3 User is offline   manudude03 

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Posted 2013-March-05, 17:33

I'm playing a small diamond. It may be tempting for declarer to play another trump, in which case he's unable to set up the last club (assuming declarer has doubleton club). Low is better than the ace incase the ace allows declarer to set up a diamond trick.

edit: changed my mind lol
Wayne Somerville
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#4 User is offline   GreenMan 

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Posted 2013-March-05, 17:46

I like kenberg's analysis. We know 10 of declarer's cards (5, 3, 2) and the rest are in the minor suits. If declarer has any diamonds left, he can ruff one in dummy, and the AK take care of the other two unknown cards. So we need declarer to have 3 clubs. If they're xxx then a club or trump exit will do, but if Jxx then only a trump is safe.
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#5 User is offline   quiddity 

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Posted 2013-March-05, 17:53

If I believe declarer started with 5 spades then I'd lead the Q. If declarer has Jxx it won't cost (he was dropping the queen anyway) and if partner has Jxx this should keep him from pitching any clubs by mistake. If declarer has only two clubs then he's home (4 spades, 1 heart, 2 clubs, 2 ruffs) and with AJ9x of spades he can always play a trump to hand, ruff the last diamond, ruff the third club high and draw the last trump. By sticking him on the board I give him the chance to ruff the third club low; maybe he'll forget the 9 is high.
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#6 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2013-March-05, 18:05

Ok, on the 9 of diamonds partner played low (standard count). He could have Qxx since he couldn't play the Q, or he could have Qxxx/Jxxx. Sorry should have said that, forgot it might not be clear that partner does not have QJxxx (though I would play the Q and probably not overcall 2H with that).
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#7 User is offline   cnszsun 

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Posted 2013-March-05, 19:50

I will play a trump back in case delcarer had 4 spades and 4 diamonds. If I don't, he can make it by cross-ruff.
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#8 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2013-March-05, 21:28

Skip this, see Justin's post below. Skip lightly over his fretting, the important part is that partner held the spade 9.

I am leaving tis up, but don't bother reading it.


OK, not having QJxxx is good, I was sort of wondering about how he could have it. So declarer has at least three diamonds. At most one club.

You would have told us if partner's spade was the 9 right? So declarer, after I get my K, holds AJ97 in spades. T6 of spades still on the board.

I lead my Q of clubs. Declarer cashes the AK, ruffs a club with the 9, ruffs his last diamond with the T, leads dummy's last spade to the AJ. Makes.

Declarer is on track to take four spade tricks, one heart trick and two club tricks He has one diamond ruff so far, and if he can get another without destroying his trump holding he has nine tricks. This rules out leading a diamond, and leading a trump does not stop him from ruffing, and no matter which trump I lead he will be able to win in hand, ruff a diamond, cash high clubs, claim with his high trump.

Beats me as to how to put a stop to this..

It is not so rare that I fail to see a winning line. It is more unusual for me to be able to convince myself that there is no winning line when there is one. A blind spot somewhere I guess.
Ken
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#9 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2013-March-05, 21:31

Oh my god I'm such a dumb drunk idiot. I am really sorry, I thought I said partners spade was the 9, but that is because I said the D was the 9 (which it actually was, GJ me!).

Im really sorry to everyone, this is why I don't make new threads. Partner played the S9. Wow, awful. I should be banned.
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#10 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2013-March-05, 21:35

Hah! Just saw that the 9 was played. I will leave what I had written up, though it is now irrelevant. Yes, I can now score my trump 8 by leading a club! Or so I think.
Do not fret, and in particular do not, please do not, stop posting hands such as this that yopu find interesting.
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#11 User is offline   GreenMan 

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Posted 2013-March-05, 22:00

View Postkenberg, on 2013-March-05, 21:35, said:

Do not fret, and in particular do not, please do not, stop posting hands such as this that yopu find interesting.


THIS. I love these challenges. GO MAKE MOAR.
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#12 User is offline   CamHenry 

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Posted 2013-March-06, 04:31

Known: partner started with 1=4 majors. It's most likely he's 1=4=4=4. Could be 1=4=5=3, but his count signal in D makes that unlikely. If he's 1=4=4=4, declarer has 5=3=3=2 and scores 4, 1, 2 ruffs, and 2 for 9 tricks. (If he's 1=4=2=6, declarer's already screwed up by not pitching losers on the honours.)

If partner's 1=4=5=3, declarer could have a slow club loser (assuming partner has the J, or he has the T and declarer misguesses the suit). In that case a diamond return is fatal, as it gives a ruff-and-discard.

The "safe" option is a spade return now. That gives nothing away, but gives up on setting the contract unless partner's made a strange canape overcall. Also, let's consider declarer's honours: he's shown the K, presumably not the J as you'd have mentioned it. He's got the AJ, making 8HCP; he's therefore guaranteed to have something in the minors. QJ seems implausible as he didn't take the (marked) ruffing finesse, so I think he's got the J.

So, declarer's hand:
AJxxx
Kxx
Hxx
Jx

or
AJxxx
Kxx
9x
Jxx

In the first case there is no way to defeat the contract; in the second case we need partner to have the CT (and not do anything stupid). The risk of a club switch is that declarer guesses the position correctly and plays small from table; the risk of a diamond return is a ruff-and-discard (more embarrassing and therefore to be avoided); a spade return seems best as it cannot (that I can see) cost a trick.
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#13 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2013-March-06, 05:49

Partner has bid 2 on a 4 card suit from AJ. He's just telling us what to lead, and assumes opps will bid game anyway. He can't know we have the strongest hand at the table. So I don't suppose he has anything else, except perhaps a J somewhere.

Opener has shown 3, 2+ and has 4-5. Although 2 was explained as min with 5, I'm sure that a 4 card suit would bid the same.
- If opener has a 5 card and a 3 card with the J there's nothing we can do. With Jxx he'll just cash AK, with JTx he'll finesse. Both lines work.
- If he has a 5 card but only holds 2 s, it means he has to ruff another in dummy. But he has some blocking issues! If we lead a ourselves he can ruff and overtake . If we lead a trump he can take with a low , ruff a , play AK and ruff a 3rd high. Leading a seems like the only chance we have, but in that case partner needs J (or declarer needs to make a mistake). If we lead a low , declarer may be convinced that partner holds Q and take in dummy, after which he'll fail his contract. If he lets it run, he'll make his contract. Playing the Q ourselve is suicide when declarer holds J.
- another alternative is that opener has only a 4 card . In this case he has a 4333 or 4342 (4324 is undefeatable). Leading a doesn't help, because declarer knows we have A and we'll develop his s. Leading a trump is interesting, but partner won't hold the J (otherwise declarer wouldn't start by playing Q). So again, only a low is left.

I play a low .
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#14 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2013-March-06, 07:15

I play a . Not sure it's beating it, but declarer is down for sure if partner has five clubs as long as I don't let him make the stiff jack, since we will get a trump promotion. if declarer has two clubs he can make it if he is good.

If declarer is a champion, I play the Q. If he is not, I think a low club is best, since I doubt many declarers will run it to the Jx. The point is that if declarer is 5332, he can play three rounds of clubs ruffing high and finesse the 6. I think this is the indicated line but a poor declarer will not find it. However, the queen is suicidal when he has Jx.
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#15 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2013-March-06, 07:20

I was writing this while Phil posted his winning declarer line of establishing dummy's last club. It's important for this that dummy has the spade 6, declarer has spade 5 (or spade x<6). But he does.

Justin has stipulated that on the ruff of the diamond, partner gave count. Partner played a low diamond, standard count, current count. So he started with four diamonds, gave suit preference at trick 1, then gave current count on the diamond ruff. It follows that partner started with four diamonds, declarer with three. Declarer started life with 5=3=3=2.

It now matters just what declarer's spade holding is, and Justin has stipulated (see the edit in the OP) that partner played the spade 9 when the Q was led from dummy.

Declarer's sure tricks are four spades, one hear, two clubs. He has one diamond ruff and a second must be prevented. This prevention can be done when declarer's remaining spades are AJ76. We have to trust he does not hold the club Jack. Since his majors were AJ76x / Kxx and he has something in diamonds, maybe QJx, he might well open 1 with or without the club J. And he did give a negative response to Drury.

We lead a club. A small club since if he holds Jx he might misjudge. He is on the board and cashes his clubs. He now has to get to his hand, ruff a diamond, get back to his hand, and then draw your last trump. With only the A and J to outrank your 8, he can't do it.

Partner showing up with the spade 9 was the key here.

I like this hand.
Ken
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#16 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2013-March-06, 07:37

View Postkenberg, on 2013-March-06, 07:20, said:


We lead a club. A small club since if he holds Jx he might misjudge. He is on the board and cashes his clubs. He now has to get to his hand, ruff a diamond, get back to his hand, and then draw your last trump. With only the A and J to outrank your 8, he can't do it.



He ruffs a club high (this is the obvious play) and finesses the spade six (the more I think about it, any good declarer will do this). Dummy is good. If we insert the eight to block trumps, he has a high cross ruff.

And partner cannot give count on the second diamond when he has Jx or Qx. The more I think about it, the more inclined I am to play the Q.
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#17 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2013-March-06, 07:53

View PostPhilKing, on 2013-March-06, 07:37, said:

He ruffs clubs high and finesses the spade six. Dummy is good. If we insert the seven to block trumps, he has a high cross ruff.

And partner cannot give count on the second diamond when he has Jx or Qx.


Partner started with four diamonds. At the time of the second ruff, he had three diamonds and gave count. Now can the count be trusted? It's true that if he started with only three diamonds, giving declarer four, then he might be shy about playing the Q from Qx on the ruff of the 9. But it doesn't matter. If declarer started with four diamonds and we lead a club (well, the club Q to cater to the stiff J) , he can toss two diamonds on the clubs but he still needs to ruff the last. As long as declarer will need to ruff a diamond to make the hand, the club lead should work out. unless declarer holds the club Jack.

Or maybe I am just repeating what you are saying? I'm not sure.

If declarer holds AJ75 of spades (dummy has the 6, I missed that) then I think he can indeed establish the fifth club.
Ken
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#18 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2013-March-06, 07:59

View Postkenberg, on 2013-March-06, 07:53, said:


Am I missing something?


When declarer has two clubs, the five-card ending is something like:

..........-
..........J
..........Qx
..........T9
T6..........AJ75
.............
..............J
742........
..........83
..........
..........AT8
..........

Declarer ruffs a club with the A and plays the 5 to dummy's six before ruffing another club high.

So to beat it we need declarer to have a stiff club, and partner to have played low with Qx where it would be insane to drop the queen.

I must say, declarer has adopted a rather odd line of play so far, whatever his hand.
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#19 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2013-March-06, 08:21

View PostPhilKing, on 2013-March-06, 07:59, said:

When declarer has two clubs, the five-card ending is something like:

..........-
..........J
..........Qx
..........T9
T6..........AJ75
.............
..............J
742........
..........83
..........
..........AT8
..........

Declarer ruffs a club with the A and plays the 5 to dummy's six before ruffing another club high.

So to beat it we need declarer to have a stiff club, and partner to have played low with Qx where it would be insane to drop the queen.

I must say, declarer has adopted a rather odd line of play so far, whatever his hand.


Right, got it. I agree.
Ken
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#20 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2013-March-06, 08:28

As mentioned, I like this hand. And I want to repeat: Having high level players post hands like this on the Intermediate/Advanced forum is a great service. Yes Justin first didn't mention partner had the spade 9, and yes if partner started with four diamonds then declarer can establish the fifth club by finessing the spade 6 but this just makes the discussion more interesting.

I had realized the importance of the spade 9, I had not thought of the possibility of establishing the clubs, I had said something utterly dumb about declarer holding the Jxx of clubs. All in all, it provoked thought and I hope such postings continue.,
Ken
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