[mycroft]

My concern is "usually, sitting over the opener helps because your minor honours should grow up. Here, you have no minor honours other than the spade Qxx, and a high honour in lefty's hand can kill that. So where are your tricks coming from?"

Yes, if LHO has 6 or 7 and partner has 5 or 6, you're getting out for safe, as you'll get to dummy once, you should be able to scrounge a sixth trick, and you won't be doubled. But make that 9-4, either way, and you're less happy.

These points are different from other points. We're white, which means if we can get out for -100, we're golden. If we don't get doubled, we're probably getting out for -100.

There are lots of upsides here, especially if partner bids. I guess I agree with you, though - when you lose here, you lose big.

[mikeh]

 mycroft, on 2013-September-03, 16:47, said:

We're white, which means if we can get out for -100, we're golden. If we don't get doubled, we're probably getting out for -100.

There are lots of upsides here, especially if partner bids. I guess I agree with you, though - when you lose here, you lose big.

I think this analysis is simply wrong, and I think that the error that I see in it has also played a role in cyberyeti's approach.

I have no idea why anyone, looking at this hand after a 1♥ opening on one's right, would think that any minus score, let alone -100, would be 'golden'.

We can't at this stage know where they will play if we pass. We can't know what partner's hand will be worth on defence against that contract. If a 1N response is forcing, and LHO is 3=2=4=4, then there is a real chance that we'll be defending 2♥!

We don't need to be defending hearts to get a plus on a hand on which 1N fails our way. We don't even need to defeat 2m, when 1N is -100 our way.

It seems to me that at mps, the odds that the hand belongs to us, in the sense that we will have a bigger plus declaring or that our minuses will be good scores, ignores that fact that the opps may well be headed for a bad score if we pass. Bridge is a hard game to play well, and sometimes even the best players can't get to the optimum contract, nor do the average mp players cope well when hands suddenly turn ugly on them, and if we pass there is a decent chance that the opps are about to have that very experience.

I also feel that to some degree this whole thread got off on the wrong track when we were told that 1N led to a top.

[PhilG007]

"Many players forget that 'pass' is also a bid;one that you will make
more often than not and,in the long run,is often the most profitable"
-the late Jeremy Flint

[gordontd]

 PhilG007, on 2013-September-04, 01:03, said:

"Many players forget that 'pass' is also a bid;
-the late Jeremy Flint

Actually it's not.

[gwnn]

I reread the thread and I think there may have been a confusion. I was talking about the supposed scenario where it would have gone 1H-p-1S-p; 2S-? In that case our LHO rates to have significantly more HCP than CHO (LHO has, say, 5+ and CHO has 0+). In that context giving pd 6 hcp does not seem like utterly useless to me. Giving him an ace and JT9xx of diamonds also isn't bad at all.

[PhilG007]

 gordontd, on 2013-September-04, 01:18, said:

Actually it's not.

I prefer to take the opinion of JF who was a World Class player when he was alive.

[gordontd]

 PhilG007, on 2013-September-04, 01:32, said:

I prefer to take the opinion of JF who was a World Class player when he was alive.

It's not a matter of opinion, but of fact. Pass is a call, not a bid.

[mycroft]

 mikeh, on 2013-September-03, 17:49, said:

I think this analysis is simply wrong, and I think that the error that I see in it has also played a role in cyberyeti's approach.

I have no idea why anyone, looking at this hand after a 1♥ opening on one's right, would think that any minus score, let alone -100, would be 'golden'.

Well, I didn't say, and I don't believe, that -50 will be a good score. -100 almost certainly will be, though (yes, it loses to 2m=, but if they can take 8 tricks on defence to NT, they might just take 8 tricks on play to NT, or 9 in diamonds).

You'll note that I don't actually like the bid, because I don't think we're developing anything, and there are way too many downsides. If we are, we're in the danger zone that nobody can make anything, and that will be bad.

But yes, I missed the -90, and the possible defence of 2♥.

[ArtK78]

In a recent online ACBL pairs game (IMP scoring), I picked up this collection, at favorable vul in 3rd seat:

Q7
KQJ85
A3
AJ42

My partner passed in first seat and my RHO opened 1♥. I chose to pass, and my opps had the following uncontested auction:

1♥ - 1♠
2♦ - 2♥
2NT - 3♥
P

At this point I had had enough, and I doubled. We collected 1100.

I will admit that opener's 2NT call was quite poor (s/he had Kx AT9xx QTxx Kx), but I was still getting 300 against 2♥ (perhaps 200 with some better declarer play) with only +130 in clubs available to us our way (partner was 4-0-4-5 with the ♦K and the ♣QT - even with the Kx of clubs onside, the opps have 4 spades and the ♥A against NT and we cannot get 11 tricks in clubs unless they do something very silly - like lead the ♥A).

[Free]

I see only 4 tricks (or are you counting on a doubleton ♥ in partner's hand?), a ♦ stopper makes it 5. That's -200 (or -500 doubled) opposite nothing...

[eagles123]

thanks all I think I was carried away with my luck streak earlier in the day through opps doing daft things! Will be more sensible next time

[the hog]

Pass. I really dislike the 1NT bid here. The comment about the opps competing is S is a spurious one. Who says they have S?

[PhilG007]

 Wackojack, on 2013-September-02, 16:03, said:

Overcalling 1NT looks like a reasonable bet. Presumably you are playing "system ON" responses. You would then be very well placed if partner bids 2♥ showing a 5 card spade suit. The danger is if partner has a weak hand with 5 diamonds and 4 spades. He may well then bid 2♣ Stayman and then pass your 2♦ response. It then could even be right to lie with a 2♠ bid to avoid this. Even with this risk I think it is better than pass. Not because it could be passed out but because it would be more dangerous to enter the bidding if say the bidding went 1♥-1NT-2♦-pass to you.

So you would overcall 1NT eh? Then LHO doubles(penalties) and it's passed round to you.....your play!

[Zelandakh]

 PhilG007, on 2013-September-08, 15:23, said:

So you would overcall 1NT eh? Then LHO doubles(penalties) and it's passed round to you.....your play!

You would need to tell us what partner's pass meant. For some, this would be a request for us to redouble, either to play there or to show two suits. For others, it would tell us that partner thinks 1NT is our best spot. Whatever runout method we are playing, it should be pretty obvious what overcaller's next move is.

Please note: this does not in any way mean that I am advocating the 1NT overcall. Nor does it mean that I think we will get a good score after such a double - Mike already made this point. It is only that the question of what to do after double and 2 passes has a simple answer.