[mr1303]

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What say you here? 1NT was 12-14.

[mike777]

I will try double.

[helene_t]

unless I have agreed with p that double asks for some non-heart lead, I will double.

[wyman]

dbl should win unless pard has a heart void or declarer has Jxxx (and even then sometimes we will be fine).

[hrothgar]

mr1303, on 2013-December-15, 15:14, said:

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What say you here? 1NT was 12-14.

I pass. The opponents could easily have 9 or 10 tricks off the top.

Yes, my hearts are very nice, but what are the odds that partner will open lead one?

[wyman]

hrothgar, on 2013-December-15, 18:23, said:

I pass. The opponents could easily have 9 or 10 tricks off the top.

Yes, my hearts are very nice, but what are the odds that partner will open lead one?

a helluva lot better if you dbl to tell him to lead his short major

[MrAce]

wyman, on 2013-December-15, 18:48, said:

a helluva lot better if you dbl to tell him to lead his short worst major

[nige1]

mr1303, on 2013-December-15, 15:14, said:

What say you here? 1NT was 12-14.

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Agree with majority: Double (Lead a bad suit) = 10, Pass = 8, 4♥ = 3.

[mr1303]

Alas partner didn't have any hearts to lead, and declarer has 9 top tricks in 3NT.

[Lurpoa]

Genii all around

[MrAce]

Well if that's the case, opponents have 4-3 5-2 6-1 hearts and they did not use stayman, did not use transfer. And those who predicted this, saved themselves from letting them make a doubled 3 NT. Of course not using stayman or xfer does not warranth pd to hold a card in heart suit, but the odds are very slim.

I am with those who doubled, unless you have an agreement that says DBL asks for spade lead, instead of asking for your worst major which i think is pretty std.

[mr1303]

LHO was 3334, RHO was 3433, and decided not to use Stayman.

[madongjun]

I would like PASS.

[MrAce]

mr1303, on 2013-December-18, 07:10, said:

LHO was 3334, RHO was 3433, and decided not to use Stayman.

This is very normal, and i expect them to hold 4-3 even 5-2 hearts now and then.

But i won't pass trying to guard against this at the table


Think about this way; You hold a suit of AKQT72. What are the odds of opponents holding the rest of the 7 hearts ? You are not done yet, you have to also take out the 7-0 and 6-1 splits due to bidding. Not done yet, you have to also give a value or a number to the holdings that they would stayman or xfer and take out that too. ( i am not saying only 3433 hands would skip stayman, i am aware we all also bid 3 NT with 3442 kinda hands too now and then) By passing you are guarding against what ever is left to you.

On the other hand, i have to admit, when pd has heart, it does not mean double will always win. Pd may not be able to read which major suit to lead.But considering that they did not use stayman or xfer, most of the time pd will lead spades. Imho dbl is still the big time winner, obviously not this hand.

[Zelandakh]

Out of interest, since leading a major is something of a normal lead in the auction 1NT - 3NT, is there an argument for having the Lightner Double here ask for a minor rather than the traditional major?

[Jinksy]

I've been wondering the same. One counterargument whose strength I'm thoroughly uncertain of is that when you get the lead right on such hands they often go two or three down, so the penalty value of the double is quite high. If you only get to use it when you need a minor suit led, you'll be trading quite a few 300s and 500s for 100s and 200s.

[MrAce]

Zelandakh, on 2014-January-13, 10:19, said:

Out of interest, since leading a major longer/stronger major is something of a normal lead in the auction 1NT - 3NT, ...