[HighLow21]

cherdano, on 2014-February-05, 17:37, said:

I am not sure how Phil is supposed to know whether you are able to analyse what would happen on any given deal.

I simply was asking whether there were any automated analytics on the site, perhaps that I'm not seeing--or if it is left to the user to perform any analytics on the output hands.

[whereagles]

I would join the 3NT bandwagon.

It's a guessing game after all...

[aguahombre]

Having never done any kind of sim before, other than in my fertile mind, I ran a small sample from Phil's reference site, and came to a mixed conclusion about a 3NT overcall.

My process might have been flawed, however, (or at least different from that of others).

Plugging in the South hand was the easy part. Next, I had to choose an East hand representative of what I think a red/red 1st-chair 3♠ bid missing the AQ should look like. The bias of my selection included no quacks which might cause me to open 1S instead, and I came up with KJTXXXX X AXX XX -- the 7321 pattern more likely to have heart shortness because of South's length.

Each sample derived was actually two..West and North interchangeable. The choices I used for South were 3NT and PASS, intending to bid 3NT if North balanced with a Double. No consideration was given to us getting to a heart contract now or later.

Win, lose, or break even for 3NT or Pass was then dependent upon:

-successful 3NT if partner would have floated 3S.
-What if Pard would have balanced with something else?
-Will partner allow 3NT to sit if we bid 3NT and it is the last successful contract?
-Will LHO raise to 4S with or without my 3NT bid? (biased by what I would do)
-combinations of the above

LHO didn't have a running suit to cash when partner would have reopened with a Double. On those we break even by bidding 3NT directly if CHO let's us play it there. But, if pard would have floated, LHO had cashers off the top a few times.

Going exactly minus 100 vs minus 140 occurred. At some point I got a headache.

[the hog]

PhilKing, on 2014-February-04, 06:42, said:

It's very tempting to bid 3NT.

It is even more tempting to pass. 3NT is off with the fairies considering the fact that your Hs are not solid and you have nothing in 2 suits.

[rmnka447]

I'm a passer also, for now.

Any bid at this point in the auction is pure speculation on who has what. The hand isn't good enough to bid 4 ♥ directly here.

Maybe I'm gun shy, but that's from years of wandering into these auctions and having the corresponding West nail me.

So I'll await developments. If pard can make some noise in the pass out seat, it becomes a lot easier to make a call.

Since preempter can have a suit headed by no better than KJ10, I'd expect his/her hand to have some extra distribution -- trump length or maybe a second suit.

[whereagles]

The point of 3NT is that pard is very likely to have xxx/xx of spades. If he has xxx, there's no way he'll balance (unless he has a monster) because he'll put you with short spades and hence no hcps (you passed). If he has xx, then he's likely to dbl (after which all is well).

Probably pass/4H is more sensible, but hey it's a guess.

[PhilKing]

aguahombre, on 2014-February-08, 12:50, said:

The bias of my selection included no quacks which might cause me to open 1S instead, and I came up with KJTXXXX X AXX XX -- the 7321 pattern more likely to have heart shortness because of South's length.

My methodology was somewhat simpler - I cast the net much wider in terms of East's potential hands and then decided whether it was likely that someone would preempt on the hand the generator produced. My feeling is that your hand, although classic and the most attractive, is outnumbered by non-classic preempts (when East has more than one heart and/or no entry, 3NT does a lot better). In a recent European, most players opened 3♠ at game all on ♠KJ98754♥2♦8♣JT43. And the fact that we hold the AQ is a mild Baysian indicator that East does not bid according to Hoyle, but that is difficult to prove.

Anyway, whilst perusing my database for parallels, this hand caught my eye:

---

It's a little different, since we are in the so-called protective seat, but our hand is significantly weaker. So who was the clown who balanced with 3NT? World number two, Claudio Nunes. If only he could cut out the wild overcalls, he might get somewhere.

The point is that there are some decent players out there who have noticed that, if we have a trick source and a good chance of shutting out the long suit, traditional yardsticks of when to punt 3NT are far too rigid.

[Lord Molyb]

I found an interesting situation in the 25 simulations I went through.

---

What do you do? What if partner had passed 3♠?

[the hog]

I would bid 4C over 3S if possible. For me this asks on what basis pd bid 3NT - a strong flat balanced hand, in which case he bids 4NT, or a long running suit with a stopper, in which case he bids that suit - presumably 4H.

Obviously that does not apply in your scenario. Here 4NT would be to play. Not sure what I would do, probably bid 6NT as I would expect partner to have 7 solid H and a S stopper.