[JLOGIC]

Cyberyeti, on 2014-February-10, 05:56, said:

I would have bid 5♣ first time, but was going with the OP, and from my point of view with a passed hand I'm only going on here with something exceptional, so 5♣ IS a void almost all the time.



don't get this maths at all

Assuming game at the other table, going off in 5 costs you 12, making 6 gains you 13 so why 5:1 ?

Also you seem to think partner will bid on much more often than I do.

Your EV of bidding a 60 % slam is (.6*13)-(.4*13) which is 2.6 imps. If you are going to lose 12 for being in 5 down you need to bid a almost 5 60 % slams for every time that you go down in 5. If you think you are going to get to some really good slams, that is a good reason to bid, but cherdano did say he did not think slam would often be better than 60 %.

[Mbodell]

At the table result: I passed. Partner had AKxxx - KQxx Txxx and we made 6.

[Cyberyeti]

JLOGIC, on 2014-February-10, 15:40, said:

Your EV of bidding a 60 % slam is (.6*13)-(.4*13) which is 2.6 imps. If you are going to lose 12 for being in 5 down you need to bid a almost 5 60 % slams for every time that you go down in 5. If you think you are going to get to some really good slams, that is a good reason to bid, but cherdano did say he did not think slam would often be better than 60 %.

Thanks, I misread his post slightly and was thinking that he was suggesting that they were not ALL exactly 60%, some will be lots better like the actual hand which is practically even better than its theoretical odds as it won't be auto to find the diamond ruff even if it's available.