[BillPatch]

Auction N E S W
Pass Pass 3♦ Pass
Pass ??

East Hand
AKQ96
9762
97
JT

[ayebee]

BillPatch, on 2014-May-29, 11:18, said:

Auction N E S W
Pass Pass 3♦ Pass]
Pass ??

East Hand
AKQ96
9762
97
JT

Given the quality of the spade suit I would have opened thereby avoiding the problem but I would bid 3s at match point scoring - too risky to pass and pass at imps - too risky to bid.

[gszes]

the only player in the bidding that may have been messed with
is partner. We know p is not broke because rho made no effort
to do anything. We are close to the top of our passed hand and
have pretty decent spades (makes it tough for opps to x so a lot
of the risk is reduced) so coming in here with 3s is virtually
mandatory at IMPS and still seems like a reasonable action at MP.

P may have had a hand like xxxx Ax Ax Axxxx and had nowhere to go
after 3d and yet this hand offers excellent play for 4s (and p should
raise with this hand)

[BillPatch]

gszes is spot on. The initial simulation of 50 at this vulnerability exceeding .95 Confidence level E must take action,
and 3♠ is much better than double. 3♠ beats defending 2,90 imps/bd, and beats double by 1.48 imps/bd. Double beats
defending by 1.48 imps/bd. Incidentally, this appears to be the only vulnerability at which 3♠ is the best choice.