[Hanoi5]

Cyberyeti, on 2014-June-21, 04:20, said:

Not surprising at all, the spanish had half their team playing in the (all Spanish) champions league final and/or involved in the title race that went down to the last day, the English premier league is the toughest league to play in because of its relentless pace and they play more games than most European leagues. Very few players were 100% fit and a number missing due to injury.

And yet Luis Suarez took charge of beating England with all the English players he plays with.

[mike777]

Thursday USA vs Germany

Germany as I have stated is the best team with the best players(brazil wins on passion)

I only hope we do not embarrass ourselves against this truly great team; clearly we have no chance for a win or tie.

[Cyberyeti]

Hanoi5, on 2014-June-23, 19:29, said:

And yet Luis Suarez took charge of beating England with all the English players he plays with.

He's been injured for a few weeks so had a nice rest (even though he's way less than fully fit now).

[Trinidad]

mike777, on 2014-June-24, 00:03, said:

Thursday USA vs Germany

Germany as I have stated is the best team with the best players(brazil wins on passion)

I only hope we do not embarrass ourselves against this truly great team; clearly we have no chance for a win or tie.

?!?

If I were into betting (I'm not), I would consider the probability that this match ends in a tie... well, let's be careful and say "above average".

Rik

[Mbodell]

mike777, on 2014-June-24, 00:03, said:

I only hope we do not embarrass ourselves against this truly great team; clearly we have no chance for a win or tie.

A team the US beat this tournament drew the German team. The German team will win the whole group if they just tie this match (and will very likely advance, in second, even if they lose this match). I agree Germany is the odds-on-favorite in this match (betting line suggests about 56%), but a US win is not inconceivable (betting lines imply about 9% chance) and a draw is not that unlikely (betting lines suggest about 35%).

But if the US lose by 1 goal, they still probably advance. They advance if Por-Gha draw, and also if Portugal wins by less than 4 goal difference (and possibly by a +4 GD as well) and also if Ghana wins by exactly 1 and don't score more goals than Germany does. All in all that put the odds of the US advancing to the KO at about 75%.

[mike777]

I thought betting lines mean the vig....


Many use betting lines, not use the vig.

In fact many admit they are not betting.


Please do not confuse betting lines which encourage you ...yes you to bet as equal to math, math to show other.

fwiw doing math in public is tough.



------


The usa advancing at 76% is not the same as Germany kicking our buts. Not the same as Germany showing skill at the game of football.

[helene_t]

Trinidad, on 2014-June-24, 01:46, said:

?!?

If I were into betting (I'm not), I would consider the probability that this match ends in a tie... well, let's be careful and say "above average".

Rik

Haha I will remember this next time somebody asks me about a probability that is impossible to calculate: "above average"

[gwnn]

jjbrr, on 2014-June-22, 23:08, said:

• lol@our defense. just garbage.
  
• im a huge demarcus beasley hater but he played an elite game.
  
• after we scored our first goal i said i'd be very happy with a tie, but jlall was adamant that we needed to shoot for a win. he was right obv.
  
• lolfournier

FYP. Could you stop saying lolmexico already, there's a match against the Dutch coming up!

[Aberlour10]

World Cup Tales>>>The Shame of Gijon 1982


http://twohundredpercent.net/?p=6088

[Trinidad]

For the record. I have no problem at all with Germany and the USA playing the ball around on their own half for 90 minutes. I wonder who agrees with me.

The reason why I don't have a problem with that is that it could have been the other way around: Had Portugal won against Germany and had Ghana beaten the USA, they could play like that too. That was different in Gijon. Germany and Austria played after Algeria and Chile. If the results would have been reversed, Algeria and Chile could not have agreed to a 1-0 result since they wouldn't have known the result of the Germany - Austria game.

A second reason why I don't have a problem with this is that Portugal knew this scenario too. Portugal knew before they started against the USA that a tie would not be enough since it would open up the possibility for a "Gijon scenario". So, they should have beaten the USA... and they didn't.

The "new Algeria" (in comparison to Gijon) is Ghana. When they tied the Germans it was hard to foresee that Portugal and the USA would tie to lead to this. On the other hand, if you lose the first match, you should not be surprised that a tie in the second might lead to not advancing even if you would win the last match.

This might be a reason to decide that the second group matches should be played simultaneously too.

Rik

[hrothgar]

I'm very interested in the US - Germany game, not the least because of the relevance to the never-ending debates about sportsmanlike dumping

[jjbrr]

gwnn, on 2014-June-24, 02:43, said:

FYP. Could you stop saying lolmexico already, there's a match against the Dutch coming up!

You're resulting

[cherdano]

There will be no gijon-like non-attack treaty between the US and Germany - the incentives are just not right for it for the German team. Consider that

• The "shame of Gijon" is still in everybody's mind in Germany, and is a taint on the reputation of everyone who was involved;
  
• Germany is almost certain (>99%) to qualify, and thus all it can gain from an collusion is
  
• avoiding the mighty.....BELGIUM, and
  
• they are confident they can beat the US in a fair match,

there is just no way they will embarrass themselves for very little gain.

[Aberlour10]

Italy vs Uruguay is on, how many red cards do you expect?

[Cyberyeti]

Aberlour10, on 2014-June-24, 09:56, said:

Italy vs Uruguay is on, how many red cards do you expect?

One that won't happen, but I don't know what the result of it would be if it did. There is a number, I think it's 7 where if you get reduced to that many players the game is abandoned (and usually awarded to the opps 3-0 unless the score is worse). What happens if both teams are reduced to 7 by a multiple sending off ?

[Aberlour10]

30 min remains. I dont understand Uruguays tactic. Both teams still play safety first, reasonably...for Italy...but for Urus? No power, no pressure , not much time for it..

[cherdano]

Can we please please ban Suarez for life?

[MickyB]

cherdano, on 2014-June-24, 11:40, said:

Can we please please ban Suarez for life?

Good idea. Ban him for life and discount all goals he has scored in this tournament

[Aberlour10]

the red given to the Italy was yellow one

the red not given to Uruguay was purple

thats all

[billw55]

Aberlour10, on 2014-June-24, 12:03, said:

the red given to the Italy was yellow one

I thought it was barely a foul, not even a yellow.

cherdano, on 2014-June-24, 11:40, said:

Can we please please ban Suarez for life?

I agree but it won't happen. FIFA loves drama. They'll ban him maybe one game for show, then back to business as usual.