[lesh]

Imps

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[nige1]

lesh, on 2014-June-15, 10:37, said:

Imps

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Guessing: Double = 10, 5♥ = 8, Pass = 6.

[mikeh]

5♥

Doubling seems wrong on several grounds, not least is that my defence isn't as good as I'd like, should partner pass with some 1=4=4=4 5 count

In addition, I am always bidding hearts over any action by him, so I choose to do it now, rather than have RHO start doubling whatever partner bids (including 4N).

Admittedly, this could work out badly and I consider this to be a minimum range hand/suit for the action.

[whereagles]

This sucks.. lol

Dbl and "correct" pard's 5m bid to hearts.

[gszes]

The 4s bid has provided us with some interesting information since it limits
the power of rho--if rho was looking at Kxxx x AKQxx Axx surely they would
have been interested in slam---we can step it down a bit but every card we
remove has a strong chance of belonging to partner. That is the top side
elimination but there is zero reason why rho cannot be very very weak and
p have the wrong distribution for tox or overcall. risk vs reward time again
but we have a bit more information to work with.

Assume 4s makes and 5h goes down opposite a broke (almost impossible given the
bidding) partner. Down 3 is a very realistic possibility so -800 to save vs
their 450 or 480 seems like a bad deal. If that was the end of the story pass
would be simple but all we need to make 5 is the seeing eye club AQ and the
reasonable chance of a singleton spade. That is not too much to ask for and
suddenly we are looking at +650 vs their still possible +420 but next is
what about p having a hand they couldn't quite bid something like
x Qx Axxxx AQxxx ???? suddenly 7h is starting to look like a massive favorite
and we have (far less than no chance?) to get there if we pass but still have
a foot in the door if we bid 5h. Sure p will probably balance with 4n over 4s
if they hold this hand but they will not move over 5h and surely we will have
great difficulty since we correctly will be worried about a poor trump split
after hearing p is minor suit oriented. Upside is 2210 vs their down 3 maybe
not even x but more realistically lets just assume we will not bid 7 and
+1430 is our top side that is still a massive swing so it seems the risk
vs reward has tilted in favor of reward ---------------preempts work keep
using them

5h.

[wank]

lesh, on 2014-June-15, 10:37, said:

Imps

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i pass. partner didn't have many spades either but he couldn't bid. there's an entirely fair chance that we'll get killed at 5 level when 4s is off.

[MrAce]

Clear Pass for me also. I gave up overcalling at 5 level, red vs white with 6322 long time ago.

EDIT: Ahh i see now. This is the extension of other problem by Lesh. Bidders are trying to recover from their early pass by North by bidding now with 6322 by South at 5 level. Tbh I do not mind the pass by North, as I said i am minority to take action but this 5♥ is awful imho. Sorry Mike

[PhilKing]

Problem 3 - will partner raise to 6♥ with his junk.

[MrAce]

PhilKing, on 2014-June-16, 16:21, said:

Problem 3 - will partner raise to 6♥ with his junk.

Problem 4 - Who is responsible for not bidding the slam when the junk passes but 5♥ bidder has a real 5♥ overcall at these colors and level over a preempt?

[Zelandakh]

MrAce, on 2014-June-16, 15:43, said:

Tbh I do not mind the pass by North, as I said i am minority to take action but this 5♥ is awful imho. Sorry Mike

Seems a little unfair. I saw this one first (it is labelled #1 after all) and also went narrowly for 5♥. The other hand seemed a completely obvious pass.

[lesh]

I see you have picked that Problem 1 & 2 are the same board

So depending on the action this raises further problems

1. If partner decided to bid 3♦ - 4♠ inevitably comes and what are we going to do now? 4nt? 5♥? Just jump to 6?

2. If partner decides to pass what is happening over our 5♥ bid? Raises to 6?

3. If we decide to dbl and correct 5♦ to 5♥, well then partner is raising isn't he?


Pre-empts work

[MrAce]

lesh, on 2014-June-17, 07:54, said:

Pre-empts work

Yes they do.

To me, rightly or wrongly, hcps do not overcall at 5 level red vs white when balanced, they double or pass. Shape acts, especially 6-4, at lower level. Now there may be exceptions to that of course. For example make that 6322 hand same values with xxx ♠ then things change a lot.

Did you guys watch the homicide investigation series on TV ? First 48 hours is called "Golden 48" and the cases which are not improved in first 48 hours, the chances of case going cold increases by a lot. I see this kinda similar. When they preempt and you hold shortness in their suit, and colors are favorable for them, your chances of being shut down increases a lot if you are unable to act right after the preempt. This is why i stretch borderline hands at this seat. Otherwise I found myself to make decisions later which are much harder and riskier than now.

@Mikeh and Zel : Although it is a big NO NO for me, It is true that my "awful" comment about 5♥ is unfair as Zel said.

[mikeh]

MrAce, on 2014-June-16, 17:21, said:

Problem 4 - Who is responsible for not bidding the slam when the junk passes but 5♥ bidder has a real 5♥ overcall at these colors and level over a preempt?

Your reasoning is circular, in a sense.


If we have the partnership style agreement that one overcalls at the 3 level with crap, then there is less reason, than I would have in my partnerships to bid the aggressive 5♥ call on the given auction.

Conversely, if one passes the direct 4=6 hand, then one has to cater to that at the 5 level.

We each have our experience to guide us, and I doubt that it is possible to demonstrate mathematically which is the better, since no matter how one approaches the analysis, one has to create constraints for the opps as well as for us....constraints for the choice of opening and for the raise.

To me, the direct overcall can lose in two very important ways. I am not saying these are the only bad things that can happen, but they seem to me to be the worst.

One is that we may be about to get to a bad contract when LHO doubles. I accept that he won't often hold KQJx in diamonds, but at this heat he doesn't need that. He is white v red: he needs only to smell 500 to lower the axe, and we are down and sometimes on a partscore hand...especially if he has shortness in spades (which, I agree, is not likely but which is possible).

The second and to me at least as bad a possibility is that we get too high when partner has a real hand.

Give him the hand he had: don't you think that there is at least the possibility that he will drive to the no-play slam?

What if he had Ax AKJ10xx Qx Kxx? That is still a no play slam but wtf do you expect him to do over 4♠ after a red v white 3 level overcall?

Of course, passing in direct seat isn't risk free either. No matter which school you support, the fact is that on some hands the bear bites you and on others you bite the bear (a saying I have never really understood....who the heck would ever bite a bear?).

I know where I stand. I happen to think (know?) I am right But I know others think (know?) differently. That is why nobody has yet discovered perfection in the game.

[rhm]

mikeh, on 2014-June-17, 17:55, said:

Your reasoning is circular, in a sense.


If we have the partnership style agreement that one overcalls at the 3 level with crap, then there is less reason, than I would have in my partnerships to bid the aggressive 5♥ call on the given auction.

Conversely, if one passes the direct 4=6 hand, then one has to cater to that at the 5 level.

We each have our experience to guide us, and I doubt that it is possible to demonstrate mathematically which is the better, since no matter how one approaches the analysis, one has to create constraints for the opps as well as for us....constraints for the choice of opening and for the raise.

To me, the direct overcall can lose in two very important ways. I am not saying these are the only bad things that can happen, but they seem to me to be the worst.

One is that we may be about to get to a bad contract when LHO doubles. I accept that he won't often hold KQJx in diamonds, but at this heat he doesn't need that. He is white v red: he needs only to smell 500 to lower the axe, and we are down and sometimes on a partscore hand...especially if he has shortness in spades (which, I agree, is not likely but which is possible).

The second and to me at least as bad a possibility is that we get too high when partner has a real hand.

Give him the hand he had: don't you think that there is at least the possibility that he will drive to the no-play slam?

What if he had Ax AKJ10xx Qx Kxx? That is still a no play slam but wtf do you expect him to do over 4♠ after a red v white 3 level overcall?

Of course, passing in direct seat isn't risk free either. No matter which school you support, the fact is that on some hands the bear bites you and on others you bite the bear (a saying I have never really understood....who the heck would ever bite a bear?).

I know where I stand. I happen to think (know?) I am right But I know others think (know?) differently. That is why nobody has yet discovered perfection in the game.

There is no question that South has a stronger hand than North.
Taking action over 2♠ with the North hand has risks and I believe doubling is safer as well as more rewarding than overcalling.

I would like you to answer one question raised and implicitly answered by MrAce:

What action is safer? Entering the bidding at the 5 level with the South hand opposite a partner, who has passed, or taking initial action over 2♠ with the North hand you call crap?

I think for anyone, who has a feeling for this game, the answer is clear.

As to the question of reaching the no play slam, I admit I would reach the no play slam, no matter what strategy would get employed.
If I pass with the North hand I would certainly raise if my partner bid 5♥ in red. In fact that slam has no play tells you something about how dubious South 5♥ bid is in red.
However I admit, if North overcalls and certainly if North doubles, I would not stop below 6♥ with the South hand.

I do not see either strategy avoiding the slam and if you find one I can assure you then you will miss many small (and grands played in game!) on some other layouts.

Rainer Herrmann

[lesh]

I think everybody is getting carried away on this particular hand.

I really liked mikeh saying about the bear: "on some hands the bear bites you and on others you bite the bear". That's why I am not really concerned about reaching the non-playing slam - after all the action might be the same at the other table.

I think the more important question is "What is the right action or the one that will bring us more + scores than -"

[wank]

both hands are passes. if you're both top of your range you occasionally miss a contract. sad story, crying profusely.

of course you can be indisciplined and stretch but then you risk going overboard, as would happen here.

[gszes]

whereagles, on 2014-June-16, 06:17, said:

This sucks.. lol

Dbl and "correct" pard's 5m bid to hearts.

That is indeed possible but most use that sequence to show the true powerhouse
type hand that was strong enough to not mind playing 4sx and had enough power
(at least ten tricks) and suit quality to convert to hearts. This concept leaves
a lot more wiggle room for a direct overcall at high levels. The principle is not
that different choosing x first then bidding ones suit later to show extra values
over a normal opening bid. It also mimmicks the pass and pull in forcing auctions
show a hand with extras.

Equal level conversion has its uses at low levels where there is maneuvering room
but at these sky high levels there is little room to explore so we try and keep our
choices to a minimum and it seems much more important to be able to show the difference
between an overcall fo 5h and the much more slammish x followed by 5h especially at imps.

[whereagles]

Well, Robson/Segal advocate ELC at higher bidding levels, not low ones.

The idea is you need to keep flexibility, as finding suit is much more important than finding level after a pree.

[gnasher]

I think it's normal for double-then-bid to show a flexible hand rather than a powerhouse, anywhere above the two-level.

In this type of auction we sometimes get away with reaching a poor slam because the opponents sacrifice. I suppuse that's unlikely here, because we have too much in their suit. That's one way in which partner's ♠K is a negative value.

[MrAce]

http://bridgewinners...g-problem-5006/

Here is the poll in BW for this hand incase anyone interested, 5 he is popular choice.