[Winstonm]

Fluffy, on 2014-July-06, 16:07, said:

Spoiler

Actually I didn't bid the slam that was on with the favourable club lie out, and I got a bottom since RHO read the bidding and led a heart getting 1♥ + 1♣ for +660 when everyone was getting +690

You and I would have shared that result if I had been playing with Bob - I would have trusted his bidding enough, and he mine, to understand there must be a problem in the trump suit or elsewhere that made slam an iffy proposition.

Now, maybe the game has changed so much that 50/50 slams are indeed averages at mps, but when I was playing tournaments that type of slam would be more of a zero/top affair.

[Cyberyeti]

AyunuS, on 2014-July-06, 18:36, said:

I don't even think it's good to bid 6 with ANY 11 HCP partner could possibly have.

KJx, x, KQJxx, J10xx or KQx, x, KQ10xx, J10xx are fine, but I agree in general that it won't be great.

At MPs, you have to think how the auction will have gone at other tables, and if you think you're more likely to get a disadvantageous heart lead, then you might consider gambling slightly against the odds.

[bluechip10]

Fluffy, on 2014-July-05, 04:46, said:

---

Match points, In case you don't get the bidding I will hint what partner has:

Spoiler

Partner has ♠KQx, ♥x, 11 points, and dreadful clubs, so probably ♦KQJ and 4 bad clubs.

Being MPs, I'll bid 6NT instead of 6 ♣. While I am pretty certain your pard opened with the most minimal hand, I still think the field will be in 6NT--given your hand. What's the worst that can happen? A zero? Average minus? The best? A top!

[gnasher]

Even at matchpoints, isn't there some advantage to bidding better than the other competitors?

[Mr Rat]

gnasher, on 2014-July-06, 13:29, said:

You also make with J10(x) or KJ10x onside, so it's actually around 60%


You already had J10x onside, but now you have J10xx onside too, for an extra 3%.


That's not quite true: it's one of two finesses if the suit is 3-2, but you can't also pick up all the 4-1s with the honours split.

Yep, true enough - as I said in the post, it was only showing the thought process, not the exact %s and not intending to deal with all the lower % cases.
As you say, the JTx is clearly picked up when pard has rubbish - the key question is/was... here are the cases, this is the thought process at the table... is it a slam that should be bid?

[Mr Rat]

gnasher, on 2014-July-07, 14:27, said:

Even at matchpoints, isn't there some advantage to bidding better than the other competitors?

Exactly.

It depends if you assess the field as being your peers or... something else.
Against your peers you bid the slam if > 50%. Against a a weak field, all things being equal, you may bid it down and expect that making 12 tricks will be good anyway.

All things being equal...

But they're not. On this hand NT contracts look to be screwed in tempo terms. When they knock out the ♥A you're constrained - and will probably end up with the 10 tricks you started with, maybe 11.

So - do you think these opponents will understand the auction and lead a heart? I assumed that we're playing decent (or plain old 'sensible') opps, in which case... well, that's one reason I opted for 6♦ not 6NT, unless partner is Kx Kx in the majors - and it's been confirmed that he's not (or shouldn't be!).
Note that on a heart lead any losing C finesse is instant death in 6N.

[bluechip10]

I guess I tried to put things into perspective. It is one board. Has anyone ever won a section or overall getting a zero on a board? I know I have. If this hand comes up in a tough field, I believe that most will bid a slam of some sort. Of course, the NT slam--if makeable, will beat all. Many experts, including myself, have made leads that hand the contract to the opps. I have to believe that experts think the same way. Now, if this hand is played in a weak field, then I know bidding a slam is a top or bottom issue. I would be more conservative in a weaker game.

[PhantomSac]

bluechip10, on 2014-July-07, 18:54, said:

I guess I tried to put things into perspective. It is one board. Has anyone ever won a section or overall getting a zero on a board? I know I have. If this hand comes up in a tough field, I believe that most will bid a slam of some sort. Of course, the NT slam--if makeable, will beat all. Many experts, including myself, have made leads that hand the contract to the opps. I have to believe that experts think the same way. Now, if this hand is played in a weak field, then I know bidding a slam is a top or bottom issue. I would be more conservative in a weaker game.

Yes obviously you can do well with a zero. And sometimes you might risk a zero if you will get a top more often than you will get a zero. That said, do you have any bridge reason to think that 6N is a good contract a majority of the time, to offset the times you get a zero? It seems like your sole reason for wanting to bid 6N is to get a top. To go with your comment, people have also won bridge events without getting a top on every board. It is still a bridge competition and it is not a valid bridge reason to do something because it is your only chance to get a top.

To my eyes, I have no idea what the field will do on this, I'm sure there are many possible results. I don't care. Based on our auction, it looks like 6C will be pretty good (clubs coming in) and 6N will not be (no heart lead + clubs coming in). Sure I might not get a top but I will get consistently above average results by having good auctions to good slams and hopefully making them.

[PhantomSac]

gnasher, on 2014-July-06, 13:29, said:

You also make with J10(x) or KJ10x onside, so it's actually around 60%

I'm not going to check your math but I assume that 60 % must be wrong for xxxx opp AQ9x for one loser? I have always thought of that as about even money. If I knew my partner had xxxx I would think it's not great since they might get a diamond ruff or w/e, but partner could have Txxx or T8xx or Jxxx which is awesome obv so I would always bid this slam.

[Fluffy]

There is a great chance the field won't open partner's hand as we play very agressive openings due to precision/strong club, and it was in fact that case.
Partner had ♠KQx ♥x ♦KQ10xx ♣10xxx, ♣10 was the key as RHO had ♣Jx I think.
It was the first time I see my partner open a 10 count in first position without 10 cards between longest suits or a 6 card major.

After reading all comments I think I might had been influenced by the speed in wich partner bid 4NT, so it is fair that I got a bottom for it and will serve as a lesson

[whereagles]

And your partner was clearly ashamed of his sub-par opener (even for precision standards), hence his 3NT and 4NT bids, which I think are not optimal.

For instance, after 3♣ he should bid 3♠. Why couldn't you have, say, Axx xxxx Ax AKJx? (or even AKQ clubs.)

And after 4♣, why didn't he bid 4♦? He already said he wasn't interested in slam with 3NT. His 4NT bid is consistent with a more quacky hand and broken suits.. say KJx Q KJxxx Jxxx.

[Fluffy]

BTW, in Grotheim's Viking precision (at least the one I learnt) after 1♦-1♥-2♣ you couldn't play 2♦, because you needed 2♦ as strong relay because you needed the extra space to be able to stop below 3NT with some shapes.

[whereagles]

2♠ didn't work well in that case?

[gnasher]

PhantomSac, on 2014-July-07, 19:22, said:

I'm not going to check your math but I assume that 60 % must be wrong for xxxx opp AQ9x for one loser? I have always thought of that as about even money.

Yes, you're right, sorry. Calculations below.

Quote

If I knew my partner had xxxx I would think it's not great since they might get a diamond ruff or w/e, but partner could have Txxx or T8xx or Jxxx which is awesome obv so I would always bid this slam.

If we're sure of Fluffy's conclusion that partner has bad clubs and therefore good diamonds, we can avoid the ruff by playing it in diamonds. That may also give us the extra chance setting up a heart winner to cope with a 4-1 club break.


AQ9x opposite xxxx:

With trumps 3-2 we make with
  K?-??? (4 combinations)
  K??-?? (6)
  J10-Kxx (1)
  J10x-Kx (2)
so 13/20.

With trumps 4-1 we make with
  KJ10x-x (2)
so 2/10.

13/20 * 68 + 2/10 * 28 = 49.8

[PhantomSac]

You have some edge if it goes low to the 9 and J/T, followed by low towards the AQ whether they play the H or low. Against bad players if it goes low I assume you will always play the ace, losing to JT on your left and winning vs KJ/KT since RHO will never falsecard. More importantly against really good players I assume they play the H almost every time the 2nd time so you can play for the drop against the H play on the second round and if they play low play for JT doubleton. I can def say I have done the first but not the 2nd but I think I would do it in the right circumstances heh. And yeah I know this means they are not so good in this spot if they always play the H the 2nd round with Hx heh.

But I am glad to know I have not been wrong to think of this combo as about even money my whole life, did not know it was actually so close to that though!