[lamford]

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IMPs; 8-board matches.

East decided to bid game, rather than invite, on this hand from today's Chairman's Cup, and North led the ace, king and another spade, South showing ostensibly an even number. Declarer ruffed in dummy, South following with the jack, and cashed the ace of hearts on which it went four, three, nine. Now the five of hearts on which it went seven ...

What is theoretically correct if God and Angel Gabriel are North-South, and what would you play at the table?

[Lovera]

In the hands of West and East are 23 points remaining 17 : with opponents silent we may coinsider that points are divided 8 - 9 or 7 - 10 and North has just showed 10 points then the Lady is in South.

[Lovera]

Sorry, has just showed 7 points then may have Queen yet.

[lamford]

The theoretically best line against perfect defenders is to play the jack. However, that requires them to false-card half the time with 9x with North, and two-thirds of the time with 10xx with South, playing the ten on the second round. This could therefore be the one-sixth of the time that North false-carded and South did not. However, Occam's razor suggests that it is more likely that neither of them did, in which case you should play the ace. This gathers in the queen and wins 12 IMPS. If neither has false-carded, then Q9 doubleton is as likely as 109 doubleton, but the latter is reduced by half because of restricted choice.

[gszes]

lamford, on 2014-July-27, 16:44, said:

The theoretically best line against perfect defenders is to play the jack. However, that requires them to false-card half the time with 9x with North, and two-thirds of the time with 10xx with South, playing the ten on the second round. This could therefore be the one-sixth of the time that North false-carded and South did not. However, Occam's razor suggests that it is more likely that neither of them did, in which case you should play the ace. This gathers in the queen and wins 12 IMPS. If neither has false-carded, then Q9 doubleton is as likely as 109 doubleton, but the latter is reduced by half because of restricted choice.

the evidence has pointed to the opps original holdings as (we need these in order to have any play)
lho rho

T9 Q73
Q9 T73

The play of the 37 or 73 from rho is actually a pretty crummy play if they held T73 since showing the 2 lowest
cards eliminates a possible holding from consideration in their partner's hand (ie 95 or 93 whichever low card
they conceal) which would increase the odds rho started with the Q. IMHO the only reason for such a play (other than
lack of attention) is the MONTY HALL RULE rho could not reveal what was behind door number 3 because it was the grand
prize take the finesse. rho is also favored to hold the queen for a couple of other reasons they started with 3 hearts
vs 2 and the opps HCP are too one sided if lho has the Q along with the already shown AK of spades.

[lamford]

gszes, on 2014-July-28, 12:50, said:

the evidence has pointed to the opps original holdings as (we need these in order to have any play)
lho rho

T9 Q73
Q9 T73

The play of the 37 or 73 from rho is actually a pretty crummy play if they held T73 since showing the 2 lowest
cards eliminates a possible holding from consideration in their partner's hand (ie 95 or 93 whichever low card
they conceal) which would increase the odds rho started with the Q. IMHO the only reason for such a play (other than
lack of attention) is the MONTY HALL RULE rho could not reveal what was behind door number 3 because it was the grand
prize take the finesse. rho is also favored to hold the queen for a couple of other reasons they started with 3 hearts
vs 2 and the opps HCP are too one sided if lho has the Q along with the already shown AK of spades.

It is indeed a restricted choice problem, but neither opponent has enough to bid over a strong NT, so that does not come in to it. The interesting case is when both the nine and ten have been played (by different defenders) in the first three cards, as that is the only time you know a false-card has been found. You then have to judge which is the easier false card to find. I would play for the drop if that does not happen.

[Lovera]

What's happen if we lose a trick in heart ?

[Lovera]

So i think Queen is second and all the other honors are in South : then running hearts and leads diamond Ace South falls under a delayed duck criss cross squeeze at 8th trick (delayed duck occours when you cannot rectyfing the count).

[jgillispie]

lamford, on 2014-July-26, 16:56, said:

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IMPs; 8-board matches.

East decided to bid game, rather than invite, on this hand from today's Chairman's Cup, and North led the ace, king and another spade, South showing ostensibly an even number. Declarer ruffed in dummy, South following with the jack, and cashed the ace of hearts on which it went four, three, nine. Now the five of hearts on which it went seven ...

What is theoretically correct if God and Angel Gabriel are North-South, and what would you play at the table?

Perhaps it would have been best to play a low club towards the queen earlier. If the swindle works, you can lose a heart. If it doesn't, then you have to consider what inferences can be taken.

[Lovera]

jgillispie, on 2014-August-27, 18:00, said:

Perhaps it would have been best to play a low club towards the queen earlier. If the swindle works, you can lose a heart. If it doesn't, then you have to consider what inferences can be taken.

I don't think you realize : infact little for Q for K and returning club down 1 because you cannot leads club and diamond J..already squeeze works for this case.

[Lovera]

43 "The two-loser squeeze : delayed duck". The last of the three species mentioned in par. 37 might be called the "delayed duck squeeze". This play is intimately related to the elementary simple squeeze, and "all conditions for that squeeze must be present", except that there are "two losers" with no way to drop just one trick.(..) (From "Bridge Squeezes Complete ..[= called Love text] in chapter IV "The two-suit strip-squeeze" pag. 112)

[lamford]

Lovera, on 2014-July-29, 09:14, said:

So i think Queen is second and all the other honors are in South : then running hearts and leads diamond Ace South falls under a delayed duck criss cross squeeze at 8th trick (delayed duck occours when you cannot rectyfing the count).

If North has Qx of hearts and you lose the second heart to him you cannot make it, as there is no squeeze. The line of leading the low club from hand cannot be right, as it does little to help discern the heart position. However, there is also no squeeze if I get the hearts wrong, rising with the king and finding South had Qxx, as I can ruff the fourth diamond anyway, and still have a club to lose. I cannot afford to lose a heart, unless the king of clubs is singleton. I cannot make the hand on the actual layout without getting the hearts right.

[Lovera]

lamford, on 2014-August-31, 04:54, said:

If North has Qx of hearts and you lose the second heart to him you cannot make it, as there is no squeeze. The line of leading the low club from hand cannot be right, as it does little to help discern the heart position. However, there is also no squeeze if I get the hearts wrong, rising with the king and finding South had Qxx, as I can ruff the fourth diamond anyway, and still have a club to lose. I cannot afford to lose a heart, unless the king of clubs is singleton. I cannot make the hand on the actual layout without getting the hearts right.

Now the five of hearts on which it went seven ...and King of heart..