[lamford]

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Opponents are playing a short club, 15-17 NT and 1♦ is always 4 and usually unbalanced. A strong London league, so IMPs. Your lead.

[WesleyC]

♥J but don't have a strong opinion.

[mikeh]

Doesn't sound like a hand on which the opps have a side suit on which to pitch losers, tho finding dummy with 4 clubs wouldn't be shocking.

No need to lead a trump. It doesn't rate to give anything away in the suit, but it might give up a tempo.

I don't see a heart as rating to accomplish much. It might...maybe partner has the K and declarer lacks the Q.

A spade has a lot going for it, in that it offers a chance to set up our second trick very quickly if partner is good enough to hold the Q and, say, a club stop.

A club may establish a quick trick for us, or even two since dummy might have Kx(x)(x).

However, even if so, do we need to take the tricks right away? It is possible that dummy's majors offer a club pitch or even 2, but that seems unlikely given that dummy presumably lacks a 4 card major.

I'm going with the spade, but I think it is close. Indeed, I don't see any lead as 'bad'. The spade is the most dangerous, for sure, but also the one with the best chance of being right. I tend to be aggressive on leads: that is my style, for better or for worse, and while I have had some bad results from this approach, my subjective view is that on balance, on auctions like this, aggression is the better approach unless the hand screams otherwise.

[whereagles]

I'll go for a club.

Heart is more passive (less likely to blow a trick, but hardly productive as well), and a spade/trump probably tie for last place in a sim.

[the hog]

A S. I like aggressive leads against slams.

[lamford]

the hog, on 2014-November-06, 18:07, said:

A S. I like aggressive leads against slams.

As do I. And you would have been right on this occasion, as declarer had xxx K AKJxxx Qxx opposite AJx Qx Qxxx AKJx. So, only a spade works. I think mikeh submitted good arguments, and he produced a balanced view, admitting that a spade could be wrong too. I concur; for example, J32 Ax AKJxxx 86 opposite AQ5 Kx Qxxx AQ34 when you have just given the 12th trick. Only a club works here, and it may amuse you to work out why.

[phil_20686]

I long time ago I did an informal study on my leads vs slams. What I discovered was that if I had under led a K every time I had one, I would have beaten a lot more slams.

So put me down for a spade.

[gszes]

phil_20686, on 2014-November-07, 06:04, said:

I long time ago I did an informal study on my leads vs slams. What I discovered was that if I had under led a K every time I had one, I would have beaten a lot more slams.

So put me down for a spade.

You did not mention it but would your K underleads have allowed more
slams to make or was it all set and no risk:) (especially in the case where
the control is to your right)

[BillPatch]

The Bird-Anthias lead is a low club. The primary reason for this choice is that it is a passive lead in a relatively short suit. The third and fourth advantages for this lead are that the opponents did not cue bid a potential A in tne suit and that partner could double the final contract for the lead of a ♠ the suit cue bid by dummy. Also, the K tends to be the 2nd worst honor to underlead(A worst).

[wanoff]

You didn't say if inverted could have a major, and if so then a club is obvious.
If inverted denies a major then it's less clear but I'd still lead a club.

[wank]

partner forgot to double 3♠ evidently

[Jinksy]

It's a brave P can who double 3♠ with both opps unlimited and slamhunting on Qxxx Axxx xx xxx. There's nothing stopping the opps from having a Moyesian in my book, if the player with 4 has slam interest. On a really bad day, when both of them are slamming, they might show up with an 8 card fit.

[wank]

you think the opps with a 10+ card diamond fit are going to stop off to play 3s on a 4-3 fit?

[Jinksy]

If they can XX it and were otherwise thinking about the 6 level, sure.

[wank]

you're leaving in a dream world. it doesn't happen. and even if it did, it wouldn't matter much. 3sXX + 3 is 1060 against 920 in 6d.

most people can't even redouble for penalties here anyway, because it's such a pointless thing to aim for. XX by opener should show a control, not KJ9x, so responder can't float it on his axx.

[Jinksy]

Makes sense, though it's not the hands where slam's making that I expect to show a profit from a natural XX. At what point do you switch from XX as for blood to control showing, though? My default has always been the four level.