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Final decision time

Poll: Place the contract quickly (17 member(s) have cast votes)

What is your next call.

  1. pass (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. 6 spades (!) (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  3. 6 notrump (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  4. 7 hearts (11 votes [64.71%])

    Percentage of vote: 64.71%

  5. 7 notrump (6 votes [35.29%])

    Percentage of vote: 35.29%

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#1 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2014-December-18, 16:09

North has shown:


  • -- 6-7 hearts
  • -- No singleton or void
  • -- 3 key cards
  • -- One side sit king
  • -- No side suit queens



3 = 6-7 hearts, no singleton or void; 5 = 3 keys, 5= king ask because the assumptionis we have a 10+ card fit, no queen ask or show is used on this auction, 6 = one side king, 6 ask side queens, 6 no side queen


In theory, after being asked for side queens, north would blast 7 with a seven card suit, in practice he has never remembered such. But lets assume he has only six hearts.


Spoiler






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#2 User is offline   eagles123 

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Posted 2014-December-18, 16:37

delete
"definitely that's what I like to play when I'm playing standard - I want to be able to bid diamonds because bidding good suits is important in bridge" - Meckstroth's opinion on weak 2 diamond
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#3 User is offline   TWO4BRIDGE 

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Posted 2014-December-18, 16:41

What am I missing ?
6C shows 1 outside K -- obviously the K .

Doesn't that add up to 13 tricks ?
2 Sp
6 Hts
2 Diam
3 Cl

Bid 7NT over 6C .
Don Stenmark
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#4 User is offline   eagles123 

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Posted 2014-December-18, 16:55

ah i see the problem now lol, partner is some 3622 so 2 to 1 odds AK clubs is tight?

i guess we still have the option of spade finesse :)
"definitely that's what I like to play when I'm playing standard - I want to be able to bid diamonds because bidding good suits is important in bridge" - Meckstroth's opinion on weak 2 diamond
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#5 User is offline   manudude03 

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Posted 2014-December-18, 17:19

I'm choosing 7H. Partner's most likely distribution is 2-6-2-3. However, when he has a doubleton club, we have a spade guess, likely with a few clues courtesy of the opponents.
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#6 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-December-18, 17:19

I'm bidding 7 to cover against the possibility of his AK being doubleton. The tiny risk of a first round ruff is surely outweighed by the chance that he's 1642, and we have a ruffing finesse for the contract.

ETA: We might also gain if he's 2632 with Jxx in Ds. I think then it's better odds than a straight finesse to play to drop the QS in three rounds of the suit then try to squeeze E in the pointy suits if it doesn't show up.
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#7 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-December-18, 17:33

Btw, maybe I'm channeling mikeh, but why did I blast RKCB if I didn't know what I was going to do over all the responses? I seem to have given up a bunch of cueing room, and whateever 3N might have been.

On this bidding I deserve to hear 5 over 4N when he has AQx KJxxxxx Q Jx.
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#8 User is offline   wank 

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Posted 2014-December-18, 18:08

View PostJinksy, on 2014-December-18, 17:33, said:


On this bidding I deserve to hear 5 over 4N when he has AQx KJxxxxx Q Jx.


i presume 5s is impossible in their methods with 2 keycards (QH is known to be unnecessary). Still, over 5H, you wouldn't be in a very good position.
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#9 User is offline   ggwhiz 

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Posted 2014-December-18, 18:30

I can't imagine not bidding 7 and can imagine hesitating even less. I'm certainly expecting a Director call and a rollback.
When a deaf person goes to court is it still called a hearing?
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#10 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2014-December-18, 19:04

Partner has 6+ , 3 keys, another K, no singleton or void, so 7 is on a -finesse at worst and is often cold. If you bid a slow 6 and partner then bids a successful 7, you would expect an adverse ruling and, perhaps, a PP for partner. So far, however, none of the pollees are in any such danger :)
YOU: K J T 9 A Q 6 5 A K x Q 6
OXO1 A x K x x x x x x x A K x
OXO2 A x K x x x x x x x x A K
OXO3 A x x K x x x x x x x A K
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#11 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-December-18, 19:55

Bid 7. It's like 75%:


if pard has Q it's cold.
if he hasn't, maybe we can finesse it lol
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#12 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2014-December-19, 02:51

Bidding grand is obvious, but playing in hearts will hardly be better, can only thinkg of Ax KJxxxx J10x AK where we can try to ruff out Q before taking a diamond finesse. I think this is too specific, and avoiding a ruff at trick one might be better.

So at MPs 7NT is obvious, at IMPs not so much but I don't think it will matter.
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#13 User is offline   chasetb 

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Posted 2014-December-19, 03:34

I would have bid 7NT after counting to 13 within 5 seconds, without thinking about the likely chance that partner has AK and NOT 2722 shape, giving me only 12 cold tricks.

I don't know if you play this, but something I do over the 3 bid is use 3 as a shape ask. You can set it up how you want, but I go:
3NT = 3622 // 4 = 2632 // 4 = 2623 // 4 = 2722, and min for your 3 bid // 4 + = non-min 2722, showing KC

If you luckily own 17+ HCP and partner tries to sign-off, you can directly answer KC. This way, you can find out shape when needed, and bid those perfect-fitting slams on less than 30 HCP.
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#14 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-December-19, 05:28

View Postwhereagles, on 2014-December-18, 19:55, said:

Bid 7. It's like 75%:


if pard has Q it's cold.
if he hasn't, maybe we can finesse it lol


P has denied the Q.
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#15 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-December-19, 07:19

View PostFluffy, on 2014-December-19, 02:51, said:

Bidding grand is obvious, but playing in hearts will hardly be better, can only thinkg of Ax KJxxxx J10x AK where we can try to ruff out Q before taking a diamond finesse. I think this is too specific, and avoiding a ruff at trick one might be better.

So at MPs 7NT is obvious, at IMPs not so much but I don't think it will matter.


The chance of a ruff must be small with 10 cards between the suits. You also have the layout I mentioned above, and another small chance I just thought of - finding P with 3622 and an opp showing out on a ruff of the third , marking the S finesse.

At MP 7N is prob better in a strong room, but most of the time I bid MP grands, I prefer to bid the one I'm most likely to make.
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#16 User is offline   NickRW 

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Posted 2014-December-19, 07:50

I think I would have bid 7, probably hearts unless MP scoring.

If I had chosen 6, I am not sure whether opps would call the director when P woke up to holding 7 hearts - I would hope not and I would *not* expect a rollback - what the devil is partner supposed to think with a 7th trump after all this poking around for a grand anyway?!
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#17 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2014-December-19, 08:14

7NT

First NT vs hearts. The only real benefit of hearts is trying to ruff out
the spade Q which is likely to succeed in only 36% of the relevant cases
far less than 50% we would have for a spade finesse. Fluffy notes an additional
benefit if opener happens to hold dia JTx but I did not bother to look and see
if that holding would come even remotely close to covering the massive 14%
difference. Hearts also benefits from 70 spades (if opener has 2) since we
would have an assured finesse or ruffing finesse but that is barely 1/2%.

With 12 top tricks we can easily imagine making 13 on at worst a spade finesse
(either way) so maybe a tad above 50%, finessing the player short in hearts, and
while that is not even close to the recommended 80% for a grand the roughly 33.3%
chance of opener holding 3 clubs pushes our chances to well around 85%. I say go for it.
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#18 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-December-19, 09:26

Quote

The only real benefit of hearts is trying to ruff out
the spade Q which is likely to succeed in only 36% of the relevant cases
far less than 50% we would have for a spade finesse.


Bollocks.

Give opener A KJxxxx xxxx AK (not a hand on which he'd show shortage in my book), and if the queen doesn't drop in 2 rounds, 7 is on the ruffing finesse while 7N looks like it needs E to have 5s and the Q.
Give opener Ax KJxxxx JTx AK, and we can try to ruff out the SQ, then fall back on the D finesse, whereas in 7N we just have to pick one.
Give opener Axx KJxxxx xx AK, and we can ruff the third D to see if either opp shows out before deciding which way to play the finesse.

Are you seriously claiming the combined odds of these add up to less than the chance of a first round ruff when, (unless P is 1642), the biggest chance of that is P with 3622, meaning Ss need a mere 6-0 split the wrong way round (approx 0.0035% by my reckoning + Wikipedia. Plus the added chance of s 9-0 or s 7-0, pushing it up to a meaty ~0.0052%, assuming the opps passed throughout NV)

Quote

while that is not even close to the recommended 80% for a grand the roughly 33.3%
chance of opener holding 3 clubs pushes our chances to well around 85%. I say go for it.


By my calculation (before accounting for the possibilities of 2722 and 1642), it's more like 66%. I dunno where this 'recommended 80%' comes from, though. It depends a lot on context, but for most purposes, I'll happily take 66% + the extra chances for 7s.
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#19 User is offline   Trinidad 

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Posted 2014-December-19, 22:43

One advantage of 7NT is that you become declarer. The opponents know everything about partner's hand and nothing about yours, other than that you have 4 hearts and -supposedly- a hand good enough to bid 7NT.

In 7, there is no hope that the defense will err when they know partner's hand and see yours in dummy. In 7NT your hand will be hidden. It will be harder for the opponents to decide which cards to hold on too when you start running the heart suit.

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#20 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-December-20, 03:18

View PostTrinidad, on 2014-December-19, 22:43, said:

One advantage of 7NT is that you become declarer. The opponents know everything about partner's hand and nothing about yours, other than that you have 4 hearts and -supposedly- a hand good enough to bid 7NT.

In 7, there is no hope that the defense will err when they know partner's hand and see yours in dummy. In 7NT your hand will be hidden. It will be harder for the opponents to decide which cards to hold on too when you start running the heart suit.

Rik


Unfortunately, playing the hand from unknown side is not a big advantage, if at all, in grandslams. Forget about expert opponents, any average player will easily construct the hands to figure where your problem is due to no claim in grandslams.

I think if you believe 7 has better odds, then you should really not worry about them seeing your hand in defense.
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