[thepossum]

How's it going over there. Much Bridge going to be played for the next few hours. I can still bet on the outcome. Is $2.88 worth it at this late stage

Have a good night everyone

[shyams]

thepossum, on 2020-November-03, 13:22, said:

How's it going over there. Much Bridge going to be played for the next few hours. I can still bet on the outcome. Is $2.88 worth it at this late stage

I too found the betting prices quoted at present to be surprising. Everyone is expecting this to be a victory for Biden. The 538 statistical site says 90% odds that Biden will prevail; yet the betting odds imply a probability of 65% - 70%.

There sure is a huge profit opportunity if one trusts all the charts & statistical models.

Edit: I'm diving in. The odds are too rich to let this opportunity go waste.

This post has been edited by shyams: 2020-November-03, 14:29

[Zelandakh]

I think it is a hangover from the 2016 polling error. I think the last real chance for dodgy D was bad weather today causing in-person Dem voters to stay at home. It is incredibly unlikely that there will be another polling error even larger than 4 years ago given the upgrades that have been done in the sampling universe. If Biden does not win I will be extremely surprised; the Senate on the other hand could well end up being on a knife-edge.

[johnu]

Zelandakh, on 2020-November-03, 14:37, said:

I think it is a hangover from the 2016 polling error. I think the last real chance for dodgy D was bad weather today causing in-person Dem voters to stay at home.

Actually, pollsters have predicted that election day voting will favor Republicans who bought in to the Manchurian President railing against voting by mail. Democrats far outnumbered Republicans in mail in ballots and early voting. It was expected that last day voters would be Republican by a wide margin. So bad weather and natural disasters would have favored Democrats in this election.

[Zelandakh]

johnu, on 2020-November-03, 14:55, said:

Actually, pollsters have predicted that election day voting will favor Republicans who bought in to the Manchurian President railing against voting by mail. Democrats far outnumbered Republicans in mail in ballots and early voting. It was expected that last day voters would be Republican by a wide margin. So bad weather and natural disasters would have favored Democrats in this election.

Republican voters also consistently score higher in terms of voter enthusiasm measures, so it is quite possible for adverse weather to impact the Democratic vote more than Republicans, particularly if it were centred on an urban centre like Miami. The simple truth is that if all Democrats come out and vote then Biden will win so only voter suppression in some form (political, legal or natural) is going to tip it back against him. Good weather is just one more potential hurdle overcome on the road to eventual success.

[cherdano]

And this, my friend Mr. Ken Berg, is why you don't use arrival date as the effective cut-off for mail-in ballots:
USPS disregards court order to conduct ballot sweeps in 12 postal districts after more than 300,000 ballots cannot be traced

A random USPS worker should not have the chance to influence the election result by taking work a bit slowly on election day.

[Zelandakh]

cherdano, on 2020-November-03, 17:14, said:

A random USPS worker should not have the chance to influence the election result by taking work a bit slowly on election day.

It is worse than this. A presidential appointee should not be in a position to decide on which counties' ballots get delivered on time and which get left on the sorting room floor. This could very easily lead to a blue legal challenge down the line in competitive states that have a "free and fair" clause in their constitutions, perhaps not for the POTUS election but certainly for some Senate races.

[barmar]

cherdano, on 2020-November-03, 17:14, said:

And this, my friend Mr. Ken Berg, is why you don't use arrival date as the effective cut-off for mail-in ballots:
USPS disregards court order to conduct ballot sweeps in 12 postal districts after more than 300,000 ballots cannot be traced

A random USPS worker should not have the chance to influence the election result by taking work a bit slowly on election day.

This is why I sent my ballot in 2 weeks ago, and then confirmed on the state web site that it had been received.

It's incredible that there were so many people who were still undecided at the time their states started accepting mail-in ballots. You either love Trump because you believe his bullshit, or hate him because of all his obvious faults, but it's hard to imagine a significant number of people on the fence. I guess there are lots of Republicans who dislike Trump but aren't sure they're willing to go all the way to voting for a Democrat, so they've been mulling this decision until the last minute.

[shyams]

barmar, on 2020-November-03, 18:00, said:

This is why I sent my ballot in 2 weeks ago, and then confirmed on the state web site that it had been received.

Received does not mean it definitely will be counted. I'm sorry to sound so sceptical but I am rapidly losing faith in the so-called democracy practised in the USA.

I don't live in the US and obviously I have no say the outcome of your elections. While I would prefer Trump to be voted out (because he is a terrible leader), I don't mind whichever candidate wins so long as the meaning of the word "wins" is aligned to what we (the rest of the world) call winning.

[shyams]

shyams, on 2020-November-03, 13:49, said:

I too found the betting prices quoted at present to be surprising. Everyone is expecting this to be a victory for Biden. The 538 statistical site says 90% odds that Biden will prevail; yet the betting odds imply a probability of 65% - 70%.

There sure is a huge profit opportunity if one trusts all the charts & statistical models.

Edit: I'm diving in. The odds are too rich to let this opportunity go waste.

At 00:40 GMT (7:40pm EST), the betting odds worsened for Biden by almost 10pts. His price now is at an implied winning odds of 57%. If I bet £100 on Biden at this price, I will win £70 (in addition to getting back my £100 stake).

[cherdano]

barmar, on 2020-November-03, 18:00, said:

This is why I sent my ballot in 2 weeks ago, and then confirmed on the state web site that it had been received.

It's incredible that there were so many people who were still undecided at the time their states started accepting mail-in ballots. You either love Trump because you believe his bullshit, or hate him because of all his obvious faults, but it's hard to imagine a significant number of people on the fence. I guess there are lots of Republicans who dislike Trump but aren't sure they're willing to go all the way to voting for a Democrat, so they've been mulling this decision until the last minute.

You know, in Europe, when we hold an election, we try to count all the votes. I guess you guys in the US have other priorities.

[Zelandakh]

cherdano, on 2020-November-03, 18:45, said:

You know, in Europe, when we hold an election, we try to count all the votes. I guess you guys in the US have other priorities.

In fairness we also try not to have one of the candidates be in charge of running the election or of having one party decide the constitution boundaries, so it is not like they are not consistent in their priorities. Besides, most of the efforts go into stopping hostile demographics from voting at all; it is only when desperation sets in that they just don't bother counting those votes that do make it past the suppression tactics.

[Chas_P]

I will not gloat if "my guy" wins.
I will not protest if "your guy" wins.
I will not say, "He's not my president" We are all Americans.
I will not love you any less because we don't always agree.
Life will go on.
We will survive.

[shyams]

Chas_P, on 2020-November-03, 19:28, said:

I will not gloat if "my guy" wins.
I will not protest if "your guy" wins.
I will not say, "He's not my president" We are all Americans.
I will not love you any less because we don't always agree.
Life will go on.
We will survive.

Call me uncharitable, but this reads somewhat like a post with the first line hidden.
The hidden line reads "Now that I know 'my guy' is winning..."

[Zelandakh]

shyams, on 2020-November-03, 19:45, said:

Call me uncharitable, but this reads somewhat like a post with the first line hidden.
The hidden line reads "Now that I know 'my guy' is winning..."

Look at the numbers coming out of Ohio and North Carolina. Biden may be down with non-Mexican latinos but he is up with almost everyone else, which may mean a sweep in the mid-West. What enquiring minds really want to know is whether our resident Racist-in-Chief will start acting like a proper human being again. Sadly I suspect it is way too late to convince any BBF regulars that he is not a deplorable. Genuine conservatives are welcome but racists? sorry, he is just the sh!t on my shoe now.

[Chas_P]

Zelandakh, on 2020-November-03, 19:56, said:

sorry, he is just the sh!t on my shoe now.

As I said, I don't love you any less because we don't always agree. I wish you happiness.

[shyams]

shyams, on 2020-November-03, 18:43, said:

At 00:40 GMT (7:40pm EST), the betting odds worsened for Biden by almost 10pts. His price now is at an implied winning odds of 57%. If I bet £100 on Biden at this price, I will win £70 (in addition to getting back my £100 stake).

At 02:17 GMT, the betting odds flipped (at least temporarily) in favour of Trump. In other words, Biden commands a longer price than Trump at this time.

Edit: 5 minutes later, the odds for Trump had strengthened much more (he is now 58% likely to win!)
Suddenly my post from some four hours ago which said "The odds [on Biden] are too rich to let this opportunity go waste" is sounding reckless.

This post has been edited by shyams: 2020-November-03, 20:24

[shyams]

OK, it is getting very late and I am unable to stay awake. So here's the situation:

According to betting markets, Trump is currently 80% likely to be reelected. Betting markets rarely get it wrong so late in the play --- so it looks like Trump is your President for 4 more years.

I guess I will check again after I grab a small nap for 2-3 hours. It is unlikely that things will dramatically have changed, but one can never be sure.

Good luck, USA. Good luck, world.

[Winstonm]

This is what democracy is up against.

Quote

Experts on comparative politics say the GOP is an extremist outlier, no longer belonging in the same conversation with “normal” right-wing parties like Canada’s Conservative Party (CPC) or Germany’s Christian Democratic Party (CDU). Instead, it more closely resembles more extreme right parties — like Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in Hungary or Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP in Turkey — that have actively worked to dismantle democracy in their own countries.

This group appeals to the authoritarian* voting block - mostly whites across a wide swath of politics and economics.

*authoritarian personality

Quote

The authoritarian personality describes a type of person who prefers a social system with a strong ruler— the authoritarian person is comfortable being the strong ruler but if the individual is not the strong ruler then he or she will demonstrate complete obedience to another strong authority figure. In both cases, there is little tolerance toward nonconservative ways of thinking. People whose personalities are structured in the manner of an authoritarian personality tend to conform to authority and believe that complete obedience to rules and regulations is completely necessary; any deviation from rules is to be treated harshly. The authoritarian personality often results in people harboring antagonistic feelings towards minority groups, whether religious, ethnic, or otherwise.

[thepossum]

But what I find curious is that it tends to be supporters of competing tendencies that like to make most rules and impose most authority over all our lives. Thats what confuses me