[lamford]

phil_20686, on 2015-September-08, 10:43, said:

Finally, you cannot seriously be arguing both that its right to duck here and that its trivial for lho to win the K from KT98 on the second round. If its right to duck the Q then it can hardly be trivial to play the K from KT98, since ducking would set the contract on layouts like this!

I am not arguing that the defence or declarer play are trivial. West has no decision with K98 (when his partner plays the jack) nor with T98 (except whether he can afford to vary his carding). With KT98 he should
a) play the ten on the first round
b) probably play the king on the second round. More so because you consider that the correct line is to rise with the queen, and therefore playing the king is the only chance hoping declarer has Ax.

Yes, playing low from Ax does gain in that they have not had a chance to give count. Not so good if an opponent has a stiff king!

[nige1]

lamford, on 2015-September-08, 10:33, said:

And there a host of hands where declarer has a likely loser outside spades, where the defender with KT98 has to win the second spade. For example, South might have Ax AKQ AKQJ AKJT

Here again, declarer might consider legitimate end-plays, first cashing (at least) ♦AKQJ ♥AKQ ♣A.

[lamford]

phil_20686, on 2015-September-08, 10:49, said:

Sorry didnt read it properly. But I still think that it doesn't follow from this that he can't have KT98, he might just have decided that on this auction against this pair he will play to disguise the spade solution, trusting south to have been expecting this dummy. Or he might just have played badly on the first trick. It happens quite a lot!

Indeed. I originally thought the queen was the correct card for declarer. And I am not suggesting the problem is trivial; I would have put it in the beginner's forum if I thought that! I think ducking is probably right against all but the very best. I think it is unlikely that West has played 8, 9 from KT98 without giving the second round a look, which we will presume. Firstly, he should have started with the ten, and secondly, if you are playing the queen with either Ax or Axx, then he must rise. And I think he will almost always play upwards with T98.

Probably a mixed strategy is needed. But the opponents will have no time to work one out.

[blachowski]

East has one of: singleton J, JT, or KJ. Being dealt a singleton is less likely than a doubleton. The possibility of his having JT is reduced because he could have played the Ten instead. It is best to duck this trick.

[lamford]

blachowski, on 2015-September-09, 07:34, said:

East has one of: singleton J, JT, or KJ. Being dealt a singleton is less likely than a doubleton. The possibility of his having JT is reduced because he could have played the Ten instead. It is best to duck this trick.

I disagree with most of this, as I think I have explained. If East has a singleton jack, then West might well have risen on the second round, and should have played the ten on the first. If East had jack-ten doubleton he should play the jack all the time, as his partner needs to know he has two. East might, indeed, have played randomly from JT doubleton, or played the ten at least some of the time, in which case you would be right, but I think the theoretical position is that it is exactly equal.