[lamford]

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Pula Point a board (BAM for those on the other side of the pond); Lead Q♣. East's card would be discouraging. If you cash the top hearts, East shows out on the second round.

[The_Badger]

Quick look only. Straightforward if West is 3334 distribution as you can eliminate/partially eliminate the suits and throw him in with the winning ♥ to lead away from the ♣J. That's only a quick look as there is probably much more to this problem than meets the eye

[lamford]

The_Badger, on 2017-September-06, 08:56, said:

Quick look only. Straightforward if West is 3334 distribution as you can eliminate/partially eliminate the suits and throw him in with the winning ♥ to lead away from the ♣J. That's only a quick look as there is probably much more to this problem than meets the eye

That was my plan. If you play ace, king and another diamond and ruff, West will over-ruff and play a spade. What now?

[Tramticket]

lamford, on 2017-September-07, 05:02, said:

That was my plan. If you play ace, king and another diamond and ruff, West will over-ruff and play a spade. What now?

You could duck the spade, playing west for both the QJ of spades or rise with the ace of spades hoping to drop a singleton Q or J spade with East (meaning that west started with six spades).

We know that East started with seven red cards and West with four, so there is room for west to have a six-card spade suit. But with six spades and six/seven points he may have found a bid on the first round.

I would guess to play a low spade on the spade switch.

[The_Badger]

Deleted

[lamford]

Tramticket, on 2017-September-07, 06:05, said:

You could duck the spade, playing west for both the QJ of spades or rise with the ace of spades hoping to drop a singleton Q or J spade with East (meaning that west started with six spades).

We know that East started with seven red cards and West with four, so there is room for west to have a six-card spade suit. But with six spades and six/seven points he may have found a bid on the first round.

I would guess to play a low spade on the spade switch.

West seemed confident with the spade exit, and I played for either player to have QJx of spades, by ruffing the third round, as the eight of hearts is still an entry. That seems slightly better than playing for West to have QJxx(x)

[Fluffy]

Assuming west has ♣J there is no point in finessing spades, west will be squeezed on the run of the trumps anyway.

[The_Badger]

Needed some coffee, but I've got this now. What needs to happen is to rectify the count immediately by letting West have the ♥Q after ♥AK. Forget about cashing ♦AK. This allows you to both play for ♠QJx in both hands, and ♠ QJxx in West's hand.

Let's say West returns a ♠ at trick four. Cash ♠AK and ruff third ♠. Play ♦K and remaining trumps. The end position is

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I believe we can assume that West led from ♣QJ9. He is squeezed on last trump and last ♦ led towards dummy.

[johnu]

Tramticket, on 2017-September-07, 06:05, said:

We know that East started with seven red cards and West with four, so there is room for west to have a six-card spade suit. But with six spades and six/seven points he may have found a bid on the first round.

Does the fact that West started with ♥Qxx and 2 diamonds change your analysis?

[cherdano]

The_Badger, on 2017-September-07, 14:11, said:

Needed some coffee, but I've got this now. What needs to happen is to rectify the count immediately by letting West have the ♥Q after ♥AK. Forget about cashing ♦AK. This allows you to both play for ♠QJx in both hands, and ♠ QJxx in West's hand.

Maybe a 2nd cup of coffee?
You don't need West to have QJxx - Hxxx (or Hxxxx or QJxxx) is also fine - all as long as he has the club 9, which I wouldn't take as a given - North denied a club control, hence leading QJxx is safe.

[rmnka447]

Once trump do not break, you have to start thinking about a possible squeeze. Given that West has the ♣ guard, you should be able to see that there can't be any squeeze on East because there is no pointed suit threat in the South hand (upper hand vs. East). So the only squeeze possible has to be against West.

[The_Badger]

cherdano, on 2017-September-07, 16:38, said:

Maybe a 2nd cup of coffee?
You don't need West to have QJxx - Hxxx (or Hxxxx or QJxxx) is also fine - all as long as he has the club 9, which I wouldn't take as a given - North denied a club control, hence leading QJxx is safe.

Yes, the ♣9 is the all important card. Well spotted that a ♣ lead was safe and that North had denied a ♣ control. By the time I had worked out the squeeze play, the bidding and the inferences the defenders would have drawn had all but eluded me. You're right: Maybe a 2nd cup of coffee needed