[nige1]

League Match.
Aggregate Scoring.

Rubbing my nose in another of my messes
(I excelled myself on this hand)

Please press next to reveal
dummy and the first 2 tricks.

You win LHO;s ♠ lead with ♠K.
Your ♣9 wins the 2nd trick.

How do you continue from here?

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[apollo1201]

There is way to hesitate.

If you know your opps, after winning your CQ continuation, how likely will they switch to H and get their 5 or more tricks, or how likely will they continue S, or open the H but block themselves, or crash C AK on the same trick?

On the contrary, D breaking 33 or Hx / stiff H / stiff QJ with West or stiff QJ with East is an assessable likelihood (for someone better than me with maths, a guess close to 45% as 36 + 1/2 x 48 x something that I imagine is a bit less than 1/2 but can’t compute🤣).

You picked the wrong assessment?

After Xmas at trick 1 and trick 2, Xmas by opps can’t continue, so I’d go for Xmas by the deck and play on D.

[cherdano]

What else are they going to do other than switching to hearts? Playing ♣Q is just hoping for West to go up with Kxxx IMO.