Posted 2019-January-29, 17:42
BBF has fallen on hard times. While there are still some reasonably competent players posting here, there are very few experts. Which means that a lot of, frankly, silly ideas get posted. I am late to the thread and maybe some will see my ideas as silly as well, but here goes:
1. South has a tough call. His LTC is 3 which is exceptional. Yet his shape is such that he can expect further bidding, both by the opps and by his partner, that may make his later actions even tougher, depending on his initial action.
Double is fine for now, if only one could be assured that one will later be able to bid clubs and, hopefully, hearts at a reasonable level. That's not quite impossible but it has to be against the odds. Someone is likely to get the auction to at least the 3 level before we get a chance (as it happens, on the lay of the cards, it is possible that in a good game we get to double then bid 3C, since North will not usually bid 3S. Of course he could bid 4S)
However, bridge is a game of percentages and the odds have to be that when we have a stiff in rho's suit and a void in spades, the bidding is going to get high quickly. So double is the sort of call one makes when one is thinking one round at a time.
1H, as suggested by one poster, is silly beyond belief: the only sillier comment being that bidding 1H and then clubs shows this hand. No, it doesn't. It is basic bidding theory (absent systemic canapé agreements) that one bids the longer suit first. There can be exceptions such as say a weak 5+6 opening hand where opening 1H may make bidding spades impossible. But here, the way to show longer clubs and secondary hearts, by overcalling in one of those suits, is to bid 2C first. If one bids 1H then clubs, partner should assume that your hearts are as long or longer than your clubs. That will not fare well when he pulls 5C to 5H with 2=2 in the suits.
2C has the benefit of getting in your best/longest suit. It is almost surely the optimal way to start the auction provided that one will get another chance.
We would have no concerns about coming in with any number of hearts, to and including 4H, if the bidding continues.
I'd have no problem either if the bidding went (as would be improbable, given my hand) (1D) 2C (2S) P (4S).....I'd bid 4N which would, in fact, come very close to showing this hand.
The main risk of 2C is that there is some small chance that it might end the auction. However, our clubs are so long that there has to be a good chance that RHO has a real opening bid short in clubs (doubleton or less) and will feel obliged to reopen. Negative doubles are deservedly popular but they can be exploited, and here we may well be able to survive 2C followed by 2 passes.
Of course, LHO may be raising diamonds or doubling, or partner may be bidding, and so on. Finally, if the auction ends with 2C, we haven't necessarily missed a game anywhere.
In short, 2C offers an excellent chance of being able to bid our hand such as to convey its nature to partner.
The other calls are 2N, rounded suits, or 3D, which frankly would never occur to me at the table: I mention it only because someone else mentioned it. So partner stops diamonds...why does that make 3N a good contract? If he has the diamond Ace, we may well do pretty well in a suit contract, possibly even slam, while if he lacks the diamond Ace, it won't take a rocket scientist to lead spades. Our diamond King, combined with partner's announced stopper, means that opening leader won't exactly be staring at an easy set of 3N based on his diamonds.
2N is attractive in that it won't be passed (at least not often, lol). However, it really understates the playing strength and implies (but does not promise) 5-5.
Now, we can bid 4C over 3H, if the auction permits, and that should convey our shape and strength to some degree. Furthermore, 2N leaves us better placed than does 2C in the unlikely situation in which LHO jumps to, say, 5D and partner has long hearts. He's never (realistically) bidding 5H over 5D after a 2C overcall but might after 2N. That is highly improbable but not impossible. Otoh, 2N does compel us to a high level, especially since I cannot see us passing 3H. So on a bad day 2N gets us too high.
On balance, I think that the decision between 2N and 2C is very close. Ask me one day and I will choose one, ask me another and I might well go the other way.
If I had to rank them on a 0-100 scale, I think I'd give both 2N and 2C 90, double 50 and other calls 10 or less. 1H would get a minus score if available.
After the double, what North should do depends on methods. The way I learned and still play is that 3S is preemptive (although can be raised, it is based on a shapely hand with at least 6 spades and less than constructive values). Thus for me this is either 4S or 2S. Pass would not occur to me. It could well be the winner, but I always bid on the assumption that doubler has a minimum type opening hand with 4441, short in their suit. They have 7 diamonds, we have 9 spades....I'd rather try for our game than to defeat 1D when my trumps are in front of declarer. Were they red, especially if we were white, pass is a reasonable gamble at mps, but I wouldn't risk it at imps.
I have seen a number of quite strong players, especially European, argue that 3S would show this type of hand...invitational with 5 spades. I don't personally like that, but there are good players who do, so whether 3S is 'correct' systemically depends on agreements.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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