[Liversidge]

Partner opens 2♦ and I have 5 diamonds and (say) 5 HCP. I can see the sense of bidding 5♦ as our opponents have game points and possibly slam, or...
Partner opens 2♥ and I have 4 hearts and 5 points, and for the same reasons I will bid 4♥, or.....
with 14+ HCP and 4 hearts I will bid 4♥ or 2NT (enquiry), expecting to make.

What troubles me is bidding to the level of the fit in the 9-13 HCP zone, where it's unlikely that either side has enough for game, and by bidding to the level of the fit I will be making what I think is called a phantom sacrifice. I have read a lot of expert 'stuff' on weak 2 and weak 3 preempts but can't find anything that cautions about this. Maybe I am worrying unnecessarily and should still 'bid to the level of the fit' for good reasons that I just haven't twigged yet. Help much appreciated.

[FelicityR]

Not the easiest topic to clarify as hand shape and vulnerability will play an important part here, and whether the opponents have overcalled or one has passed, etc. Bidding to the level of 'the fit' as in the Law of Total Tricks is a subject, as you rightly said yourself, that is discussed and commented upon at advanced/expert level, and even I have difficulty getting my brain around it sometimes.

The Law of Total Tricks works reasonably well at the 2,3 and 4 levels. It also works well, but not perfectly, when the division of high card points is evenly spread between yours and the opponents' hands, and the hands are distributional in shape. There will always be hands that ill disobey the law, but in the vast majority of cases it is a good rule of thumb to use in the absence of any other.

I personally tend to adjust it slightly if vulnerable against non-vulnerable as at MPs you can end up with the dreaded -200 or obviously at IMPs a phantom sacrifice which will not make your teammates happy.

[Liversidge]

FelicityR, on 2019-September-22, 02:07, said:

Not the easiest topic to clarify as hand shape and vulnerability will play an important part here, and whether the opponents have overcalled or one has passed, etc. Bidding to the level of 'the fit' as in the Law of Total Tricks is a subject, as you rightly said yourself, that is discussed and commented upon at advanced/expert level, and even I have difficulty getting my brain around it sometimes.

The Law of Total Tricks works reasonably well at the 2,3 and 4 levels. It also works well, but not perfectly, when the division of high card points is evenly spread between yours and the opponents' hands, and the hands are distributional in shape. There will always be hands that ill disobey the law, but in the vast majority of cases it is a good rule of thumb to use in the absence of any other.

I personally tend to adjust it slightly if vulnerable against non-vulnerable as at MPs you can end up with the dreaded -200 or obviously at IMPs a phantom sacrifice which will not make your teammates happy.

Is the format (duplicate pairs vs teams) a determining factor the 9-14 HCP zone when vulnerable?

[FelicityR]

Liversidge, on 2019-September-22, 04:40, said:

Is the format (duplicate pairs vs teams) a determining factor the 9-14 HCP zone when vulnerable?

No. Because the last thing you need at any bridge format is a bad score. There's an element of bluff too with using The Law of Total Tricks, and also there are other considerations to make like whether you are using it after partner has opened, or if partner has overcalled. In principle they should be the same, but usually an opening hand is better than an overcalling one generally so there's the likelihood of more quick tricks on defence or an extra trick on offence. [I am sure you now see how complicated it can get if you analyse this too far.]

As long as you have a shapely hand, not balanced, and partner knows you are bidding up to level of the trump fit as a pre-emptive tool, this is ok. Let the opponents guess is a good maxim. Plus, surprisingly, it pays sometimes to raise a weak two to the three level with only two card trump support, semi-bluffing the opponents into making decisions a level higher.

It's not uncommon to get a bad result with using LOTT, but in the long run what you will find is that there are many plus scores that will compensate for that.

[Stephen Tu]

Shapely outside should probably bid to LAW level as double shot. Flatter, particularly with some length in other major(s), and enough strength that you think you might buy it (but not enough to contemplate game), passing and hoping LHO can't balance is certainly reasonable strategy. Or raising to 3 only and not to 4.
Takes some experience to gauge this accurately, and won't always guess right what works out better in practice.

[Cthulhu D]

Liversidge, on 2019-September-22, 00:59, said:

Partner opens 2♦ and I have 5 diamonds and (say) 5 HCP. I can see the sense of bidding 5♦ as our opponents have game points and possibly slam, or...
Partner opens 2♥ and I have 4 hearts and 5 points, and for the same reasons I will bid 4♥, or.....
with 14+ HCP and 4 hearts I will bid 4♥ or 2NT (enquiry), expecting to make.

What troubles me is bidding to the level of the fit in the 9-13 HCP zone, where it's unlikely that either side has enough for game, and by bidding to the level of the fit I will be making what I think is called a phantom sacrifice. I have read a lot of expert 'stuff' on weak 2 and weak 3 preempts but can't find anything that cautions about this. Maybe I am worrying unnecessarily and should still 'bid to the level of the fit' for good reasons that I just haven't twigged yet. Help much appreciated.

The first thing is that it's possible to overstate the 'strength' of the law: It's just a guideline and you need to use your judgement. It's only 'correct' 35-40% of the time, but it's accurate +/- 1 trick a much larger percentage of the time, and you really, really want to make the 'correction' to work out if this is a case where your 9 card heart fit should bid 2, 3 or 4 because getting that right vs someone just bidding 3H every time is a big improvement! (to the tune of 2 IMPs a board!) So don't blindly bid to the level of the law! This is a rough rule of thumb and you absolutely need to use some additional judgement.

The rationale is generally a combination of two things:

A) if you have a 10 card heart fit or 11 card diamond fit the opponents have a 10 card fit somewhere else (probably).
B) If you have very fitting shapely hands your offensive potential might be quite a bit higher than your raw HCP might indicate, and you might be very well able to make game via cross ruffing or something. For example

x
AQxxxx
xxx
Kx

opposite

Axxx
KJxx
x
Axxx

Will make if trumps are 2:1, two rounds of hearts, a spade, a two clubs, ruff three spades in north's hand and ruff two diamonds in Souths hand and that's a total of 21 HCP. Trumps are probably 2:1 so you absolutely want to be in it (and there are other chances as well e.g. if an opponent, ideally LHO, shows out on the first round of hearts, you can try and ruff three spades in dummy), but if the hands are:


xxx
AQxxxx
x
Kx

opposite

Axxx
KJxx
x
Axxx

It's got fewer chances because of the duplication of shortness (You can, with some luck, do a dummy reversal to make 10, but I think as a practical matter it will be hard), so if you're south it's probably right to try an inquiry rather than just blast 4H. Use that judgement!

[dsLawsd]

Look at your fit/number of trumps and vulnerability. Does partner need to know in order to compete at a high level? Yes then raise.
Will you be happy if the opponents get to play their best suit at the two or 3 level? If not make it harder within reason if you rate to go down less than their part score.

Kit Woolsey's excellent book "Matchpoints" explains the concept so well= so look for it.

[ray_p]

To answer you question simply; Yes you are worrying unnecessarily, So don't worry!

The easiest answer is that the LOTT is at it's most accurate predictive power precisely when points are evenly spread - in the 20/20 point part-score range. (Those 4H/5D bids are bigger gambles but pay-off because the returns are commensurately bigger).

But remember it is a defensive tool to minimise loss rather than voluntarily bidding risky contracts - then it becomes better to accept or double their sacrifice instead of making a 'phantom' sacrifice.

And, as with any statistical technique, like a finesse, one still considers context that may contra-indicate; in particular vulnerability, defensive vs offensive trick, other bidding, as noted elsewhere.

[pescetom]

FelicityR, on 2019-September-22, 07:28, said:

Plus, surprisingly, it pays sometimes to raise a weak two to the three level with only two card trump support, semi-bluffing the opponents into making decisions a level higher.

I don't think that is even surprising in the case of a red suit - you don't often want them playing in 2S at MP.

[Vampyr]

Cthulhu D, on 2019-September-22, 18:04, said:

The first thing is that it's possible to overstate the 'strength' of the law: It's just a guideline and you need to use your judgement. It's only 'correct' 35-40% of the time, but it's accurate +/- 1 trick a much larger percentage of the time, and you really, really want to make the 'correction' to work out if this is a case where your 9 card heart fit should bid 2, 3 or 4 because getting that right vs someone just bidding 3H every time is a big improvement! (to the tune of 2 IMPs a board!) So don't blindly bid to the level of the law! This is a rough rule of thumb and you absolutely need to use some additional judgement.

The rationale is generally a combination of two things:

A) if you have a 10 card heart fit or 11 card diamond fit the opponents have a 10 card fit somewhere else (probably).
B) If you have very fitting shapely hands your offensive potential might be quite a bit higher than your raw HCP might indicate, and you might be very well able to make game via cross ruffing or something. For example

x
AQxxxx
xxx
Kx

opposite

Axxx
KJxx
x
Axxx

Will make if trumps are 2:1, two rounds of hearts, a spade, a two clubs, ruff three spades in north's hand and ruff two diamonds in Souths hand and that's a total of 21 HCP. Trumps are probably 2:1 so you absolutely want to be in it (and there are other chances as well e.g. if an opponent, ideally LHO, shows out on the first round of hearts, you can try and ruff three spades in dummy), but if the hands are:

You don’t have to do all this ruffing back and forth — both hands do not have to be high! The North hand is high simply by ruffing two diamonds, and you should be OK if trumps are 3-0 because you can ruff the second one high. The dummy reversal is not nearly as safe, and you don’t have the entries to take the FIVE ruffs you would need in North to set up the South hand.

[Vampyr]

pescetom, on 2019-September-23, 03:25, said:

I don't think that is even surprising in the case of a red suit - you don't often want them playing in 2S at MP.

The principle that the “three level belongs to the opponents” ie bid 3/2 but not 3/3 if you have no reason to believe there are more than 16 trumps is probably the most frequent and useful application of the LOTT. It is the only one I bother with actually, because higher-level contracts have many more variables that come into play.

Edit: Of course at pairs, if you’re vulnerable you might have to worry that they will double to protect their part score.

[cleveritis]

It depends upon the texture of your 4 or 5 card support. The mistake you might be making is with an 11 or 10 card fit, there is a 50 point deck - the total tricks may be 20 or higher.

with a crappy 5332 with scattered Qx Kx and Jx - I'd just raise to four - hoping to mess with their slam chances. With a pure 55 or 5431 - I go ahead and bid 5D - vulnerability matters too.

[mikeh]

There is a lot to this topic, and it is far more complex/nuanced than merely the degree of fit or the number of hcp, or the combination of these factors.

I would be hesitant to claim any particular simple rule. For example, if you have the weak diamond fit, with say 4-5 hcp and 5 diamonds, you need to say more about the hand before I'd offer any strong advice.

When you bid 5D, say, after 2D (P) ?, you frequently endplay the opps in the auction. LHO presumably has a very good hand, but unless he is exceptionally distributional (and often even then) he can only say 'double' and RHO will more often than not pass, and the more the opps' high cards are asymmetrical, as in the stronger is LHO and the weaker is RHO, the more likely it is that you end up in 5D x'd.

Well, maybe that's a good thing, but.....


if you are 5332, you may end up taking only 6 tricks in your contract, and even 7 tricks is likely to be a bad board unless they have a slam and can reach it without your interference. Bear in mind that simply noting that they are 'cold for slam' is little comfort if, in real life, they are not likely to bid it had you done something different.

Also, vulnerability matters. Going 1100 against 980 is not a good result

To me, when deciding whether to advance partner's preemptive opening I look for fit and then, before I make any decision about level, I look at my defence and my offence..the latter, when weak, being in terms of shape. I love stiffs, and am infatuated with voids, but I despise flat hands.

I love being at favourable, am agnostic with respect to equal and hate being unfavourable.

Also, one has to know one's partner. Increasingly players open weak 2's with 5 card suits, and 3 bids with 6 card suits are almost automatic in some circles. This has an important impact on how high one should compete.

If the stars align, and I am at favorable with a good fit, no defence and good shape, I will be aggressive in raising. Otherwise I tend to be conservative. IOW, I vary my approach according to my hand, and the vulnerability, as well as my partner's known style.

There is also nothing wrong with a little creativity. Many years ago, in a practice match between Canada's Women's team and (most of) the Open Team, I held roughly x x xxx KQ10xxxxx white v red


Partner opened 2D, and my screenmate hesitated and passed, so I bid 3N.

The tray was slow coming back, but eventually returned with 2 green cards.

3N was not a success, in terms of tricks, but was a big pickup when our teammates bid and made a vulnerable slam.

[miamijd]

Stephen Tu and Mikeh have given some good advice. Basically, it boils down to whether you have an offensive or defensive hand.

If you have something like:

x xxx KJxxx AKxx

then I would bid 5D without thinking about it. On the other hand, if you have:

Qxx Qxx Axxxx KJx

then I would content myself with 3 or 4D.

These are extremes, of course, but you get the idea.

Cheers,
Mike

[Cthulhu D]

Vampyr, on 2019-September-23, 08:07, said:

You don’t have to do all this ruffing back and forth — both hands do not have to be high! The North hand is high simply by ruffing two diamonds, and you should be OK if trumps are 3-0 because you can ruff the second one high. The dummy reversal is not nearly as safe, and you don’t have the entries to take the FIVE ruffs you would need in North to set up the South hand.

But what if the 3-0 trumps are T98!!

Jokes aside this is correct.

My bottom line is on all of this, use some judgement and consider the broader hand, scoring method and state of the match when making these decisions. Conversely, if you have a 10 card trump fit, you need to at-least have a reason not to bid 4 imho.

[Vampyr]

Cthulhu D, on 2019-September-24, 19:10, said:

But what if the 3-0 trumps are 1098?

I was suggesting that you could survive by ruffing only the second one high, but of course you will sometimes be able to ruff them both high. Like if your side holds the 10.

[Cthulhu D]

Vampyr, on 2019-September-24, 19:34, said:

I was suggesting that you could survive by ruffing only the second one high, but of course you will sometimes be able to ruff them both high. Like if your side holds the 10.

It's all good, I'm being very silly.

[SelfGovern]

One very useful rule I have when thinking about sacrificing is this: If I can't set their game contract, I'm never bidding to the level where game is advancer's only bid (I don't bid 3!S or 4!D if they are bidding hearts, nor 4!H if they're bidding spades, for instance). I'll either bid 4S or 5C/D/H immediately, or I'll pass and take my fix.
This is assuming I don't think they can make six, and on hands where I don't have enough prime values to think that we can make game in our strain.