thepossum, on 2019-October-23, 23:20, said:
Thanks for any comments and guidance on Soloways.
P
Currently in hiding for a while but here are some Sim results which kind of back up any side of the argument (using bdeal). Not really good enough for me to bid past game but each to their own
Assumptions by North of South's hand
Sim 1: 15+ HCPs and splinter clubs (Gib doesnt know), 6+ spade points
Mean spade tricks by S: 23105 / 2000 = 11.5525 An 0.0446834 (95% conf.) min: 8 max: 13 sdev: 1.01894
chance to win 1S by S: 2000 / 2000 = 1 An 0 (95% conf.) min: 1 max: 1 sdev: 0
chance to win 2S by S: 2000 / 2000 = 1 An 0 (95% conf.) min: 1 max: 1 sdev: 0
chance to win 3S by S: 1997 / 2000 = 0.9985 An 0.00169713 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0387008
chance to win 4S by S: 1951 / 2000 = 0.9755 An 0.00677942 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.154595
chance to win 5S by S: 1710 / 2000 = 0.855 An 0.0154406 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.352101
chance to win 6S by S: 1053 / 2000 = 0.5265 An 0.0218955 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.499297
Number of hands dealt: 621821. CPU time usage [sec]: 34.34 (x8 threads).
Sim 2: 15+ HCPs and no splinter assumption, 6+ spade points
Mean spade tricks by S: 22700 / 2000 = 11.35 An 0.046791 (95% conf.) min: 7 max: 13 sdev: 1.06701
chance to win 1S by S: 2000 / 2000 = 1 An 0 (95% conf.) min: 1 max: 1 sdev: 0
chance to win 2S by S: 1999 / 2000 = 0.9995 An 0.000980331 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0223551
chance to win 3S by S: 1987 / 2000 = 0.9935 An 0.00352401 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0803601
chance to win 4S by S: 1920 / 2000 = 0.96 An 0.00859333 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.195959
chance to win 5S by S: 1590 / 2000 = 0.795 An 0.0177034 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.403702
chance to win 6S by S: 906 / 2000 = 0.453 An 0.0218293 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.497786
Number of hands dealt: 191328. CPU time usage [sec]: 28.02 (x8 threads).
Sim 3: 17+ HCPs and no splinter assumption, 6+ spade points
Mean spade tricks by S: 23412 / 2000 = 11.706 An 0.0436453 (95% conf.) min: 7 max: 13 sdev: 0.995271
chance to win 1S by S: 2000 / 2000 = 1 An 0 (95% conf.) min: 1 max: 1 sdev: 0
chance to win 2S by S: 1999 / 2000 = 0.9995 An 0.000980331 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0223551
chance to win 3S by S: 1997 / 2000 = 0.9985 An 0.00169713 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0387008
chance to win 4S by S: 1959 / 2000 = 0.9795 An 0.00621406 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.141703
chance to win 5S by S: 1791 / 2000 = 0.8955 An 0.0134149 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.305908
chance to win 6S by S: 1187 / 2000 = 0.5935 An 0.0215396 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.49118
Number of hands dealt: 626902. CPU time usage [sec]: 35.11 (x8 threads).
Note. I think An is two (1.96??) standard errors (funny character in my command window)