[lamford]

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IMPs, head to head match. First segment of 4.

I watched one hand of the Spring Fours today and that was enough. The 2013 Spingold winner, Woijcech Gawel, playing for the Auken-Welland team against the Zia-Bilde team, showed poor technique on this hand. West led the six of diamonds to East's king and the eight of clubs was returned. Over to you,

[Cyberyeti]

It would seem odd if E had 7 clubs and overcalled 2♦, so going up with the ace guarantees the contract.

Is it likely W had ♣KJ10xxx and presumably 4 diamonds and only bid 3♦ ? not very but possible.
Is it possible W had ♥QJ10xxx and ♣K and 4 diamonds ? not very, but just about
He could have WJOd presumably with the hearts

Are the chances of either of these this high enough that you want to give up the 1 IMP for the overtrick if the K♣ is onside as is pretty likely ?

Early in the match I think I avoid the disaster and just rise with the A, draw trumps in as many rounds as necessary and play 3 rounds of hearts ruffing the fourth if I need to.

[Douglas43]

Cyberyeti's answer looks good to me. It's unlikely that West has 6 clubs but not out of the question, so why take the risk?

[gszes]

CYBERYETI on the money as usual. I rate west as around 18 times (I need a math major for this estimate) more likely to have 6 clubs than east having 7c. Even though the overall odds of west having said 6 clubs is tiny, I have zero problems letting go of the possible overtrick. I have no recollection of ever losing an imp match due to overtricks.

[Cyberyeti]

 gszes, on 2021-May-05, 04:07, said:

CYBERYETI on the money as usual. I rate west as around 18 times (I need a math major for this estimate) more likely to have 6 clubs than east having 7c. Even though the overall odds of west having said 6 clubs is tiny, I have zero problems letting go of the possible overtrick. I have no recollection of ever losing an imp match due to overtricks.

I've been involved in long board teams matches that have been decided by 1 IMP several times (including being on both ends of this in the same 48 board final in different years), we also failed to qualify for a national final by an IMP this year (multiple teams, we won the last match against the team we were competing with but by 1 IMP too few). I'm sure you could look back at overtricks in any of those.

[LBengtsson]

team strategy: make contract first. match pair strategy: make contract but look for overtrick(s) at same time. Simple

[johnu]

 gszes, on 2021-May-05, 04:07, said:

I have no recollection of ever losing an imp match due to overtricks.

Either you have a selective short memory, or you don't play many IMP matches.

[Douglas43]

So, what was the gaffe? Did declarer play the Ace and blow an overtrick or finesse and run into a 6-1 break?

[AL78]

 Douglas43, on 2021-May-07, 08:50, said:

So, what was the gaffe? Did declarer play the Ace and blow an overtrick or finesse and run into a 6-1 break?

I'm guessing what happened is the latter. The point being taking the finesse was an unnecessary risk. The contract is rock solid by rising with the ace (West will not have a void), taking the finesse risks going down on a club ruff when the lead is a singleton.

[lamford]

 AL78, on 2021-May-07, 09:52, said:

I'm guessing what happened is the latter. The point being taking the finesse was an unnecessary risk. The contract is rock solid by rising with the ace (West will not have a void), taking the finesse risks going down on a club ruff when the lead is a singleton.

That is right. Declarer finessed and sustained a club ruff. I think it was a blind spot and he thought that he was still making for some reason.