[Cyberyeti]

So you're playing a minor national final, and nothing is going your way. MP pairs

Bid these: S deals

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We had an auction That started 1♣-1♥-2♦-3♠ (splinter) and wound up in 7♦, W leads a spade, take it from there.

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You can bid 3♣ basically showing 5 clubs and an 11 count, 2N and pass 3♣ showing a bit less, or pass in which case what do you lead ? (X would be pens)

[nige1]

CybeYeti 'So you're playing a minor national final, and nothing is going your way. MP pairs. We had an auction That started 1♣-1♥-2♦-3♠ (splinter) and wound up in 7♦, W leads a spade, take it from there.'
++++++++++++++++++++++
Hands transposed to make West dealer.
My guess: ♠K. ♣A. ♠A (throwing a ♣). Ruff a ♣ (Assume that ♣K does not appear) ♦A, Ruff a ♣ with ♦Q. ♦KJ2. if LHO has 4♣s then hope for a double squeeze.

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CyberYeti 'You can bid 3♣ basically showing 5 clubs and an 11 count, 2N and pass 3♣ showing a bit less, or pass in which case what do you lead ? (X would be pens)'
+++++++++++++++++++++++
I rank
1 Pass = NAT Pusillanimous.
2. 3♣ = INV (♥K seems well placed).
3. 2N = Lebensohl.
4. Double = PEN. If you play double as competitive -- it would be my first choice.

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[Cyberyeti]

Nigel, If you pass, what do you lead on the second one ?

[nige1]

 Cyberyeti, on 2021-June-05, 15:51, said:

Nigel, If you pass, what do you lead on the second one ?

If 2♥ shows ♥ and a minor, a ♣. Otherwise, a ♦.

[Cyberyeti]

 nige1, on 2021-June-05, 16:06, said:

If 2♥ shows ♥ and a minor, a ♣. Otherwise, a ♦.

It was natural, so a diamond OK, will explain how that works out later.

[shyams]

There are numerous lines of play available in the first hand. I'm afraid this is too tough for me.

 nige1, on 2021-June-05, 15:47, said:

I rank
1 Pass = NAT Pusillanimous.
2. 3♣ = INV (♥K seems well placed).
3. 2N = Lebensohl.
4. Double = PEN. If you play double as competitive -- it would be my first choice.

I would flip the first two ranks. I prefer a 3♣ bid over a pass. It is likely that partner does not have more and will pass, but there is no harm in hoping for a great hand with partner and a 3NT bid.

If I choose to pass, then I too would probably lead a diamond.

[Winstonm]

In 7D there are entry problems so the first order of business should be to test the hearts with AK. If the Q comes down, ruff a third heart high (still making if rho has stiff 10 or 9 of trump). If the hearts are not 3-3, and the Q has not fallen, ruff the spade jack and take the club finesse. If that holds, you can cash spade ace and draw trump ending in dummy while squeezing rho if he guards the hearts too. If lho guards hearts, you are left with hoping the K is third.

I would suggest tweaking our bidding because this is a lousy contract. 🤪

[Cyberyeti]

 Winstonm, on 2021-June-06, 12:25, said:

In 7D there are entry problems so the first order of business should be to test the hearts with AK. If the Q comes down, ruff a third heart high (still making if rho has stiff 10 or 9 of trump). If the hearts are not 3-3, and the Q has not fallen, ruff the spade jack and take the club finesse. If that holds, you can cash spade ace and draw trump ending in dummy while squeezing rho if he guards the hearts too. If lho guards hearts, you are left with hoping the K is third.

I would suggest tweaking our bidding because this is a lousy contract. ��

It's not lousy, it's certainly not great, partner showed me ♣AK possibly plus Q/J when he had AQJ is where we went wrong.

It should be made but you don't make it in a slightly different way to the one my partner failed.

Clue, I don't think it costs in your line to cash the trump AK before embarking on the ruffing, when you do you find E has ♦109xx so ruffing high is not a good idea, and indeed ruffing anything in hand is bad news.

[Winstonm]

 Cyberyeti, on 2021-June-06, 12:29, said:

It's not lousy, it's certainly not great, partner showed me ♣AK possibly plus Q/J when he had AQJ is where we went wrong.

It should be made but you don't make it in a slightly different way to the one my partner failed.

Clue, I don't think it costs in your line to cash the trump AK before embarking on the ruffing, when you do you find E has ♦109xx so ruffing high is not a good idea, and indeed ruffing anything in hand is bad news.

I mean lousy in the sense of lousy grand slam - small slam is fine. I think if you find the 4-1 you are forced into an inferior line. don’t you?

With the 4-1, I would like to play this as a simple heart/club squeeze against lho but I need two club tricks so I would have to take the ruffing finesse prior to testing trumps would I not? Otherwise I have no entry back to hand.

[Cyberyeti]

 Winstonm, on 2021-June-06, 13:22, said:

I mean lousy in the sense of lousy grand slam - small slam is fine. I think if you find the 4-1 you are forced into an inferior line. don’t you?

With the 4-1, I would like to play this as a simple heart/club squeeze against lho but I need two club tricks so I would have to take the ruffing finesse prior to testing trumps would I not? Otherwise I have no entry back to hand.

Why go for a ruffing finesse at all ?

There are several things you can do, simple heart finess, simple club finesse or some sort of ruffing finesse line, if trumps had been 3-2 you could have played your original line.

Calculating the odds, if trumps are 3-2 you need the ♥Q to drop in 3 or the clubs 3-3 onside or RHO to have 4 hearts and 4 clubs to the K, or a stiff Q♥ and the club K onside to 3.

So that's 67.8% x ((35.5% + 16.1%) + (48.4% x 17.8%)) if they're 3-2 (plus a little bit for a 5-1 heart break with a stiff Q where you need the club K onside to 3, and the squeeze) which is a little over 41% for the 3-2 trump breaks without adding much for the small chances.

If trumps are 4-1 you can take the heart finesse, if they're 3-3 onside you're gin, if they're 4-2 onside you need clubs 3-3 onside, if the hand with 4 diamonds has 4 small hearts also you just need the club K onside (probably non stiff).

so that's (given the known 1-4 trump break) (hearts 3-3 onside = 17% + 2/3 (32.84% x 19.58%) (hearts 4-2 onside and ♣Kxx onside) + 1/3x (15.33%)x 1/2 x 5/10 (E to hold 4-4 reds and ♣K you should deduct for a stiff K as you may not have the entries) so around another 7% so it's pretty close to 50:50, not one you want to be in but not terrible.

[nullve]

First deal

My auction:

Spoiler

nullve(S)-nullve(N)

1♣(1)-1♦(2)
2♦(3)-2♠(4)
3♣(5)

(1) "10+, NAT(ish) unBAL" OR "11-13/17-19/23+ BAL"
(2) "0+, 4+ H, may have longer S unless GF"
(3) "13-15, 4+ H, unBAL" OR "19-21 unBAL, not 4+S3-H"
(4) GF relay
(5) "19-21, 5+C(3)4+D"

after which it is easy to find out that 7♦ can't be that terrible.

Partial line in 7♦(S):

1. ♠4 from hand
2.,3. ♦AK
If both follow suit:
...4. ♥A
...5. small heart from dummy
...If East follows suit:
......ruff with the J

Second deal

I'd X* and lead the ♦5.

* At MP the alternatives, including P, are even more atrocious.

[Cyberyeti]

To those who lead the (systemic for us) 6♦ on the second one:

YOu see

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On the dummy and it goes JQA, declarer tables ♠K

I bid 2N and let partner bid 3♣ the best defence is more difficult to find if I bid 3♣

[Winstonm]

 Cyberyeti, on 2021-June-06, 14:07, said:

Why go for a ruffing finesse at all ?

There are several things you can do, simple heart finess, simple club finesse or some sort of ruffing finesse line, if trumps had been 3-2 you could have played your original line.

Calculating the odds, if trumps are 3-2 you need the ♥Q to drop in 3 or the clubs 3-3 onside or RHO to have 4 hearts and 4 clubs to the K, or a stiff Q♥ and the club K onside to 3.

So that's 67.8% x ((35.5% + 16.1%) + (48.4% x 17.8%)) if they're 3-2 (plus a little bit for a 5-1 heart break with a stiff Q where you need the club K onside to 3, and the squeeze) which is a little over 41% for the 3-2 trump breaks without adding much for the small chances.

If trumps are 4-1 you can take the heart finesse, if they're 3-3 onside you're gin, if they're 4-2 onside you need clubs 3-3 onside, if the hand with 4 diamonds has 4 small hearts also you just need the club K onside (probably non stiff).

so that's (given the known 1-4 trump break) (hearts 3-3 onside = 17% + 2/3 (32.84% x 19.58%) (hearts 4-2 onside and ♣Kxx onside) + 1/3x (15.33%)x 1/2 x 5/10 (E to hold 4-4 reds and ♣K you should deduct for a stiff K as you may not have the entries) so around another 7% so it's pretty close to 50:50, not one you want to be in but not terrible.

OK, but when you find east with 4 trump the odds of West having the club King go up considerably. A priori for the hearts is 4-2, and we can't ruff in hand, so it would seem the best chance is a squeeze, which will require 12 tricks in order to work. And due to the limited entries I can either take your line or the ruffing finesse.....I think. It's a pretty complicated hand.

[Cyberyeti]

 Winstonm, on 2021-June-06, 18:22, said:

OK, but when you find east with 4 trump the odds of West having the club King go up considerably. A priori for the hearts is 4-2, and we can't ruff in hand, so it would seem the best chance is a squeeze, which will require 12 tricks in order to work. And due to the limited entries I can either take your line or the ruffing finesse.....I think. It's a pretty complicated hand.

It is a pretty complicated hand. I may be slightly biased in that at the table both hearts and clubs are 3-3 with the honours onside for the normal finesse so as long as you remember to bang 2 trumps first which my partner didn't, you can play on either long suit. I should probably have mentioned which spade was led, it was certainly high enough to be 4th of 6 or a variety of other things.

BTW if you find hearts 4-2 with diamonds 1-4 the odds of clubs 3-3 are actually higher than they started with no knowledge of the opposing hands.

[Winstonm]

 Cyberyeti, on 2021-June-07, 03:01, said:

It is a pretty complicated hand. I may be slightly biased in that at the table both hearts and clubs are 3-3 with the honours onside for the normal finesse so as long as you remember to bang 2 trumps first which my partner didn't, you can play on either long suit. I should probably have mentioned which spade was led, it was certainly high enough to be 4th of 6 or a variety of other things.

BTW if you find hearts 4-2 with diamonds 1-4 the odds of clubs 3-3 are actually higher than they started with no knowledge of the opposing hands.

Thanks for your replies - I liked this problem. It is challenging.

[akwoo]

On the second hand, my choice between 2N and 3C would depend on what 12-14 really means in your partnership. If you almost never upgrade and might even pass some truly crappy 12s, then I'll go for 3C. If 12-14 means 11.75-13.5, I'm bidding 2N.

[Cyberyeti]

 akwoo, on 2021-June-07, 13:35, said:

On the second hand, my choice between 2N and 3C would depend on what 12-14 really means in your partnership. If you almost never upgrade and might even pass some truly crappy 12s, then I'll go for 3C. If 12-14 means 11.75-13.5, I'm bidding 2N.

More the latter if I'm bidding in other seats, but probably 12.25-14 in 3rd