[Evies Dad]

Assume EW play Weak NT.

---

How suitable is West for reopening with each of

• X
  
• 3NT
  
• 4C
  
• 4D

Should East just take the punt to 4H is also a reasonable thing to consider.
If so, what would the slower route of X by East and rebid of 4H show ?

[LBengtsson]

If we are using a weak NT here, I think East needs to X to show values, as partner will either have a genuine ♣ suit and/or 15+ points here. However, I do not think we will end up in a ♥ grand slam

It is easier to judge with all four hands showing, but when West I guess bids 4♣ after X though that looks not sufficient (and would it be forcing?), and East bids 4♥ West must be worth 6♥ with ♥AQ and the other aces up his sleeve. I guess West could cue bid 4♠ after 4♥ and go the long way round to finding slam, perhaps it is possible to get to the grand this way.

Good question to post, Evies Dad

[pescetom]

If East does just take the punt to 4♥ then reaching the grand slam with either control bids or RKCB + Specific Kings is trivial for West.

[helene_t]

I agree with LBengtsson's point about East needing to bid if we play weak NT.

Even playing strong NT, it is possible that East should act but I am not sure.

If East passes, I think I woould double with the West hand, then bid 5♣ over East's 4♥. East hopefully has enough to bid 6♣ over that. If East bids 5NT (pick-a-slam), West may be inspired to bid 7♥ but I am not sure - he already showed a monster, and East hasn't shown quite that good hearts. 7♥ is also a bit lucky, South could easily have ♥Jxxx given that North preempted.

[Cyberyeti]

I would act as E, what do you think's going to happen if S bids 4♠ ?

Also I'm interested that people are just rebidding clubs or raising hearts, where do you want to play opposite xx, Jxxxxx, KQxx, K ? Diamonds should still be in the frame.

[DavidKok]

East should bid 4♥.
South should bid 5♠, but I think most people will settle for the cowardly 4♠.
West should be in a fine position if East took action. On the auction as shown I would double, and if partner pulls to 4♥ just pass and pray for the best. Partner will frequently pass the double.

[Douglas43]

DavidKok, on 2022-June-28, 07:17, said:

East should bid 4♥.
South should bid 5♠, but I think most people will settle for the cowardly 4♠.
West should be in a fine position if East took action. On the auction as shown I would double, and if partner pulls to 4♥ just pass and pray for the best. Partner will frequently pass the double.

Yes, I too would double, and then pass 4♥, ready to apologise if it's a stupid mis-fit. My clubs and diamonds are too full of holes for any other action to be attractive. (I'd regard 3NT as to play rather than good clubs / secondary diamonds)

[pescetom]

helene_t, on 2022-June-28, 06:46, said:

7♥ is also a bit lucky, South could easily have ♥Jxxx given that North preempted.

I can see that being a concern if trumps were clubs, but surely it would have to be ♥JTxx to set 7♥ ? (disclaimer: it's 40C here).
East can see the T and knows about AQ, although he might not get a chance to show this (except by looking confident: isn't f2f great to have back).

I too would act as East, although it might be double. More recent partner would always bid hearts, which certainly works out here.

[Evies Dad]

Thanks for the replies.

My concern with E bidding an immediate 4H is the suit quality and the doubleton spade and the vul.
OTOH, opposite a partner opening a 15-17 NT, E has a hand I would bid to 4H with - and a strong NT is the hand I am placing partner with, and I can tolerate 5C if I have guessed wrong.

It might go wrong, partner might be 3145, but otherwise pretty much must have either 2 hearts or 6 clubs.
They certainly can't be 4144 !

I'm going to quote something from the Robson and Segal book that pertains to East's decision.
(from the chapter on t/o double after an overcall - there is an example of 1D-(3S) and holding both unbid suits - i.e. the hand type E doesn't hold in the above)

Quote

The rule of thumb on borderline offensive hands is: if you are going to be ‘tossing a coin’ when partner reopens with a double, it’s better to make a slight overbid and double yourself. If, on the other hand, you want to pick the strain opposite partner’s average offensive hand, it might well be right to make a slight underbid and pass.

In this case E has no problem at all should partner reopen - they want to play 4H.
Conversely they don't want to X and have partner bid 5D.

I think where this potentially falls down is Cyber's point about the opps bidding 4S.

I think that on most days 4H by E will work out best.
Keeps open slam options and also better positions the partnership should S extend the preempt, with only a small tail of disastrous outcomes.

[Evies Dad]

DavidKok, on 2022-June-28, 07:17, said:

East should bid 4♥.
South should bid 5♠, but I think most people will settle for the cowardly 4♠.

While I fully understand what you are saying, I think one would have to be in an astonishingly high level field to be pre-sacrificing against a slam like that.
South may well contribute zero tricks to partner's endeavours - although JTx is good insurance against a total disaster.

[DavidKok]

You're not sacrificing against their slam per se. You are taking out their 5♣ and making them guess at the 6-level. Partner has between 0-1 defensive tricks, and so do we. That ♠JT5 is great insurance in a spade contract and of negative defensive value in any other strain. It is completely unclear whether the opponents should contract for 11, 12 or 13 tricks. Two things are clear though: they can almost always make something at the 5-level (either clubs or hearts, perforce) and might have a slam. The correct level to raise a preempt is the one where the opponents are left with the last guess. If you bid 4♠, East-West have a bunch of tools at their disposal to figure out strain and level. Since we expect their 5-level contract to make, they will likely only take the plunge to 6 when it is right.

As the cards lie 5♠ seems to be off three tricks, and luckily for NS 7♥(!) and 6♣ make though I wouldn't expect many people to bid beyond 6. Note that -3 is only risking -200/-150 against their 5-level contract making. Plus, there's a chance you go -2 (clean win against their vulnerable game) and a chance they misguess (for a delightful +100). People are too scared of jumping beyond game, but sometimes the odds are well in your favour. That's why I called 4♠ cowardly.