[jillybean]

After reading the last thread here, I'm not sure that I am posting in the right forum.

I'm interested in others thoughts on this hand, does scoring and vulnerability, state of match affect your decision?
Partner will have a solid 6-7 card suit.

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Thanks, I hope you are all doing well!

[Cyberyeti]

NV I'd bid 3N (there is not the risk of going for a lot of hundreds that there is if you are vul).

You will need to define the sort of hands you open 3♣ on better to know how good a risk it is, do you play G3N ? do you mean solid or just sturdy for the suit quality ?

[ali quarg]

Good to see you back

Vulnerability should make a difference as you can bid with a weaker hand with Favourable versus Unfavourable vulnerability
In terms of playing tricks I use
FV 5
EV 6
UV 7
At EV & UV I would bid 3NT. FV is more of a risk, but on balance I would take the risk on being able to cash the clubs.

Other's may have a better appreciation of this challenge though.

[jillybean]

 Cyberyeti, on 2022-October-28, 05:09, said:

NV I'd bid 3N (there is not the risk of going for a lot of hundreds that there is if you are vul).

You will need to define the sort of hands you open 3♣ on better to know how good a risk it is, do you play G3N ? do you mean solid or just sturdy for the suit quality ?

No gambling 3nt We play disciplined preempts 1-2 seat, partner will have 2 of top 3

 ali quarg, on 2022-October-28, 05:16, said:

Good to see you back

Vulnerability should make a difference as you can bid with a weaker hand with Favourable versus Unfavourable vulnerability
In terms of playing tricks I use
FV 5
EV 6
UV 7
At EV & UV I would bid 3NT. FV is more of a risk, but on balance I would take the risk on being able to cash the clubs.

Other's may have a better appreciation of this challenge though.

Thanks

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

your choices are Pass or 3NT.

Playing IMPs, I would go with 3NT, at MP, ..., it is a tossup.
Even if you agreed to have 2 of the 3 top honors in the suit,
will not help you much.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[helene_t]

Opposite a sound preempt I will try 3NT but it's close.

The club suit is likely not to run, but if partner has help in spades or they don't lead a spade, I may be able to afford to duck a trick.

[jillybean]

Partner oftens has the cards to get me out of the predicaments I find myself in.
Not this time, what's your plan?

Lead ♠3 - 4 - J

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[helene_t]

I cash ♣AK and if the queen doesn't fall, I try the heart finesse.

[LBengtsson]

A smooth pass will make life difficult for the opps. The chances of taking 9 tricks in no-trumps looks statistically less of a chance (with correct defense) than making a definite part score. The only problem with passing though is that the opps. may find their ♠ fit at the three level, and what do you do then (?) but if the opps. have a ♠ fit at the three level, then the chances are - given your shortness is in the ♠ suit - that they would have lead a ♠ against 3NT.

It is a real spin coin decision imo. You are not forced to bid here. It is 4x more likely partner has a six timer than a seven. I go with the odds that 3NT is only going to be made with poor defense, or partner having ♣AKxxxxx and the ♣ suit breaking 2-2. I think there are plenty more hands where it will go down, I guess.

Edit: Writing answer at the same time as jillybean discloses hand lol

[mikeh]

I’d have passed 3C, but it’s a style thing more than anything else. At mps, passing is, imo, best since game rates to be less than 50%. Even AKxxxxx often won’t be enough and KQJxxx will usually prove insufficient.

At imps, nv, the same factors apply. It’s no crime to miss a gamer that is 50% or less, and even less so when, if we go down, it’s likely multiple undertricks

If I did bid, it’s obviously 3N, and I agree with Helene’s line

[LBengtsson]

 jillybean, on 2022-October-28, 07:30, said:

Partner oftens has the cards to get me out of the predicaments I find myself in.
Not this time, what's your plan?

Lead ♠3 - 4 - J

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North's hand looks more opening or overcalling hand territory, than pre-emptive territory. I am not criticizing 3♣ (as you play it this way) but there is always the chance that you will pre-empt partner with your bid. AK in a six-card suit has defensive possibilities whereas KQJT in a seven-card suit has virtually none.

[ali quarg]

 jillybean, on 2022-October-28, 07:30, said:

Partner oftens has the cards to get me out of the predicaments I find myself in.
Not this time, what's your plan?

Lead ♠3 - 4 - J

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A touch weak for me to pre-empt at equal vulnerability

[bluenikki]

 jillybean, on 2022-October-28, 07:30, said:

Partner oftens has the cards to get me out of the predicaments I find myself in.
Not this time, what's your plan?

Lead ♠3 - 4 - J

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The best game is 4♥ by south. I doubt if you get there even if north passed or opened 1♣.

Off-topic: Everyone should learn how to play 4-3 fits!

[nullve]

 jillybean, on 2022-October-28, 07:30, said:

Partner oftens has the cards to get me out of the predicaments I find myself in.
Not this time, what's your plan?

Lead ♠3 - 4 - J

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IMPs?
♠3 = ?

Assuming IMPs and that the ♠3 is "4th best", I'll continue spades at trick 2!!

The idea is that if opps now cash their spade tricks (hopefully only four!), I'll be in a better position to guess which finesse is working, if any. Not only because it's a priori better to finesse through the player with only four spades, but also because I get a chance to see

* that player's discard on the last spade
* exactly what spade suit LHO led from (does it suggest an awkward lead?)
* what the player with the fifth spade will shift to

.

For example, if the lead seems to have been awkward, then other leads probably looked at least as awkward, which to me is a strong indication that the heart finesse isn't working and that I should I try to play the club suit without a loser instead. But, depending on what has happened after six tricks, I might do better by cashing the ♥A first (in case the ♥K drops) before taking the (first) club finesse!

Enough details for now, I think.

[smerriman]

 nullve, on 2022-October-28, 12:58, said:

Assuming IMPs and that the ♠3 is "4th best", I'll continue spades at trick 2!!

I know IMPs is "all about making the contract" but I really can't see this providing enough information to make up for the guaranteed IMP you'll be throwing away when the club queen does drop.

[mikeh]

 nullve, on 2022-October-28, 12:58, said:

IMPs?
♠3 = ?

Assuming IMPs and that the ♠3 is "4th best", I'll continue spades at trick 2!!

The idea is that if opps now cash their spade tricks (hopefully only four!), I'll be in a better position to guess which finesse is working, if any. Not only because it's a priori better to finesse through the player with only four spades, but also because I get a chance to see

* that player's discard on the last spade
* exactly what spade suit LHO led from (does it suggest an awkward lead?)
* what the player with the fifth spade will shift to

.

For example, if the lead seems to have been awkward, then other leads probably looked at least as awkward, which to me is a strong indication that the heart finesse isn't working and that I should I try to play the club suit without a loser instead. But, depending on what has happened after six tricks, I might do better by cashing the ♥A first (in case the ♥K drops) before taking the (first) club finesse!

Enough details for now, I think.

I think the idea of exiting a spade at trick two is a terrible idea.

They will usually untangle the suit, and the suit appears to be 5=4 or 4=5.

You can pitch one club from dummy, and maybe a heart, so you pitch one diamond. You can’t pitch hearts from hand, since you need four heart tricks if you decide not to take the club hook (of course, dropping the club Queen solves all problems but we have to plan the play for when it doesn’t drop) so you pitch three diamonds (if you are thinking of a club hook, you probably want to be able to pick up Qxxx).

Now, if LHO wins the fourth spade then, against non expert defenders, you might have some clue as to what’s going on, although after all the diamond pitches, LHO can usually play a diamond safely and you’re pretty much back to the trick one position. The real problem with your line is that east may win the last spade. Now a good defender plays a heart regardless of his holding. This makes you commit right now…heart hook or play on clubs

Note that helene’s line, which I endorse, let’s you try to drop the club Queen….if it drops, run the clubs for ten easy tricks, with possibilities for more, depending on how they discard…and if it doesn’t drop, take the heart finesse. The club Queen will drop quite often…20% of the 4-1 breaks and 40% of the 3=2 breaks so almost one third of the time. When it doesn’t drop, the heart hook is roughly 50% (the exact figure depends on how clubs and spades lie). So the combo play of clubs then hearts will win about 2/3 of the time…nearly one third for clubs and roughly 50% of the remaining times. On your line, if east wins the last spade, you’re committed to choosing between two 50% lines….heart hook or club hook.

Oh…and expert defenders might even switch to a heart even earlier. If I were east and held QJxx Kxx xxx Qxx, I’d at least consider winning the second spade and playing a heart right now…usually my highest spot to simulate xxx(x). After all, when declarer exits a spade, I know he doesn’t have a clear path to 9 tricks and the tactic of forcing a premature decision is well known to any expert player.

[jillybean]

Here's the full hand. Helene's line of play was the winner.

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This is a BBO game and I know my approach is quite different online to what I would do at the table.
It's fun to have a shot at these but perhaps bad habits are being reinforced by BBO scores.

[helene_t]

The repeated club finesse gives you an overtrick so maybe there's a case for doing that at matchpoints. Cashing one club, then finesse and then resort to the heart finesse when RHO shows out of clubs also gives you an overtrick. Or you could take both finesses for 13 tricks

Probably I would cash two clubs even at matchpoints, though. If a large part of the field doesn't play 3NT, or play 3NT from partner's hand, overtricks may not matter so much.

[nullve]

 mikeh, on 2022-October-28, 14:18, said:

The real problem with your line is that east may win the last spade. Now a good defender plays a heart regardless of his holding. This makes you commit right now…heart hook or play on clubs

[...]

On your line, if east wins the last spade, you’re committed to choosing between two 50% lines….heart hook or club hook.

The heart finesse is still around 50% when we know the opening lead was from A863?

Well, maybe against players who we can assume would always lead from their "longest and strongest" suit. But at least against good opponents who we can assume know their Bird-Anthias*, that lead seems awkward, suggesting (if not guaranteeing) that a passive heart lead was impossible. So I'd happily commit to the club finesse and rise with the ace at this point.

* I realise I have to re-read their book on notrump leads