[pescetom]

This hand in yesterday's national sim called for several borderline decisions by EW: whether and how to get into the auction, whether to sacrifice over 4♠, how to tackle the trumps if you did.

MP

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Can you live with the auction given vulnerability (and however you see the probable total trumps, if you believe that is relevant)?

The lead is ♠K. South covers with A and returns ♣T to J,Q and A.
How do you plan to tackle hearts?

Spoiler

South will play the 6 over any heart lead from the dummy

[steve2005]

nice sacrifice it isn't even doubled

[pescetom]

steve2005, on 2023-October-04, 14:46, said:

nice sacrifice it isn't even doubled

Maybe they screwed up, maybe it was a phantom sacrifice, maybe they just can't tell?

[AL78]

I don't like that overcall; flat, sub-minimum and a very mediocre suit. It is the sort of thing people do at my club and get away with it like here.

As for playing the hearts I don't see any better way than leading through South. The lead marks North with ♠KQ, the overtake and North holds one or both of the club honors. NS have 23 HCP between them and South bid on to game implying they have a better than dirt minimum opener, although I'm not confident in that because I am not familiar with forcing passes and what types of hands pass, double and bidding game show in that situation. I would play South to hold the heart honors.

[shyams]

If it's a phantom sacrifice then we are going to score badly. So we hope 4♠ is making and play for 3-1 split in hearts (diamonds also need to be 4-2 or for South to hold ♦ Q10x that guarantees only two diamond losers in the potential 4♠ contract)

My line would be to lead H10 and run it if South plays small.

[pescetom]

AL78, on 2023-October-04, 15:11, said:

I don't like that overcall; flat, sub-minimum and a very mediocre suit. It is the sort of thing people do at my club and get away with it like here.

I would be curious to know what others think too, although I imagine many would agree.
I was West and I don't much like it either, but in the circumstances it felt right.
In order of defects, yes the suit is KJxxx, yes it's 5332 and yes it's sub-minimum... but we are at favourable vulnerability and partner has passed, it's a far cry from the textbook situation which screams pass.
Add in that West is a first time partner from a better club and so far has bid very aggressively, I decided that showing 5 cards in the other major (especially hearts vs spades which requires a collaborative decision) was the lesser evil.

At all other tables NS were allowed to play in spades, which suggests that the bid certainly is borderline.

By one of those coincidences that short-circuit the forum with reality, in the first hand today I passed in first seat and opps bid 1♠ 2♣; 3♠ 4♠. My partner led ♦A and we set the contract.
Only at the end did I realise that it was the same hand played tuesday, the Director had duplicated the same boards by mistake and this partner in my place had passed

[pescetom]

shyams, on 2023-October-05, 06:20, said:

If it's a phantom sacrifice then we are going to score badly.

Not necessarily, such are the mysteries of bridge. 4♠ can be set but it only happened at one table (plus one in 3♠ making) and 5♥-2 was 83%.

[pescetom]

AL78, on 2023-October-04, 15:11, said:

I would play South to hold the heart honors.

shyams, on 2023-October-05, 06:20, said:

My line would be to lead H10 and run it if South plays small.

South does play small, so 2-0 for letting it run so far. Interested to hear other opinions.

[smerriman]

pescetom, on 2023-October-05, 15:59, said:

Not necessarily, such are the mysteries of MP bridge. 4♠ can be set but it only happened at one table (plus one in 3♠ making) and 5♥-2 was 83%.

What was 5♥-3? My initial feeling on seeing the auction was that it probably wasn't going to matter much how we play given the lack of double!

[pescetom]

smerriman, on 2023-October-05, 16:06, said:

What was 5♥-3? My initial feeling on seeing the auction was that it probably wasn't going to matter much how we play given the lack of double!

Minus 3 would have been 67%, minus 1 or 2 both 83%. Of course had one of them doubled, it might well help with the trumps dilemma leading to 83% all the same.

With the available information, would you have let the T run, or put up the K?

[smerriman]

I'm usually wrong when robots aren't involved but I'm guessing the argument for playing the king is that with AQx South would likely have doubled, and if they're breaking 2-2, based on South being the opening hand and the honors shown to date, South is a favorite to have more of the remaining HCP.

I don't know how strong that argument is though since it feels one of N/S should have ended up doubling this regardless of holding.. depends on how well you know the opponents but I'm probably just ignoring them and running the ten too, imagining it's not going to affect our score either way (surprised it did).

Edit - alternatively, even without the double inference, I guess South is less likely to have long hearts given the likely 6-3 spade break.. maybe this is another case of a complex balance between HCP and distribution. Tricky.

[pescetom]

smerriman, on 2023-October-06, 14:28, said:

I'm usually wrong when robots aren't involved but I'm guessing the argument for playing the king is that with AQx South would likely have doubled, and if they're breaking 2-2, based on South being the opening hand and the honors shown to date, South is a favorite to have more of the remaining HCP.

I don't know how strong that argument is though since it feels one of N/S should have ended up doubling this regardless of holding.. depends on how well you know the opponents but I'm probably just ignoring them and running the ten too, imagining it's not going to affect our score either way (surprised it did).

Edit - alternatively, even without the double inference, I guess South is less likely to have long hearts given the likely 6-3 spade break.. maybe this is another case of a complex balance between HCP and distribution. Tricky.

I know both opponents very well and South is a frequent partner of mine. At the table, she hesitated before providing the 6 and I read it as a genuine doubt (she rarely plans ahead her call in defence). Good news that it was not a singleton. Could she still have AQ? Unlikely, or she would have doubled. Would she have hesitated with A6? More likely with Q6, I figured, and played low. It turned out N had the Q and she had the A.

Did not affect our score either way, but expert partner chided me that I should have put up the K. Going with logic rather than psychology I suspect he was right: S holding AQx is improbable both due to lack of double and to vacant spaces and S holding Qx is less likely than S holding Ax, given the auction and play so far (S opened and N has shown more points than S so far). But I was curious to know the thoughts of others here. Thanks to the few who took the plunge and anyone else who chips in.

[Winstonm]

As a play problem I lead 2 of hearts to the J. Assuming that holds ruff a spade. Cross to hand with Diamond ace, ruff a spade then lead a second heart.

[smerriman]

pescetom, on 2023-October-07, 15:16, said:

Would she have hesitated with A6? More likely with Q6, I figured, and played low. It turned out N had the Q and she had the A.

A hesitation must imply holding the Ace, surely? Can't think of any reason someone would think about flying up with the queen, but an ace for a quick switch seems plausible.

[pescetom]

smerriman, on 2023-October-08, 13:16, said:

A hesitation must imply holding the Ace, surely? Can't think of any reason someone would think about flying up with the queen, but an ace for a quick switch seems plausible.

I would expect her to realize quickly that she should play the Ace (she's far from dumb or slow, just lazy and undisciplined) whereas the Queen does require a bit of thought to conclude there is no reason. Although it's always dangerous to try to enter into somebody else's head, especially when they are an opponent rather than partner

[johnu]

pescetom, on 2023-October-08, 14:56, said:

I would expect her to realize quickly that she should play the Ace (she's far from dumb or slow, just lazy and undisciplined) whereas the Queen does require a bit of thought to conclude there is no reason. Although it's always dangerous to try to enter into somebody else's head, especially when they are an opponent rather than partner

On this auction (or just about any other), I can't think of any reason to play Q from Qx in trumps. Maybe partner has singleton K, in which case playing Q compresses a sure trick into no tricks. Or if partner has singleton or doubleton A (as in the actual hand), prevents declarer from misguessing and guarantees one trick for the defense instead of a possible 2. Outside of beginners who hesitate every card, I wouldn't expect anybody but a coffeehouser to hesitate with Qx.

[pescetom]

johnu, on 2023-October-09, 19:18, said:

On this auction (or just about any other), I can't think of any reason to play Q from Qx in trumps. Maybe partner has singleton K, in which case playing Q compresses a sure trick into no tricks. Or if partner has singleton or doubleton A (as in the actual hand), prevents declarer from misguessing and guarantees one trick for the defense instead of a possible 2. Outside of beginners who hesitate every card, I wouldn't expect anybody but a coffeehouser to hesitate with Qx.

I agree (as I said) that there is no possible reason to play Q from Qx. I don't agree that you need to be a beginner to not see this immediately. Quite a few intermediates would need to think it through to be sure, in my experience. These days many players learn bridge in their fifties and defensive play never becomes automatic for them.

[smerriman]

pescetom, on 2023-October-10, 05:11, said:

I don't agree that you need to be a beginner to not see this immediately. Quite a few intermediates would need to think it through to be sure, in my experience. These days many players learn bridge in their fifties and defensive play never becomes automatic for them.

That may be true, but if that requires thought, Ax should require slightly more thought, since flying with the ace has the same potential dangers (crashing partner, preventing a misguess), with the added complexity that once in a rare while it might be right when you have to lead immediately. So if the hesitation implies anything over the other, it must be tipped towards the ace.

But reading into hesitations is always fraught with danger. I do quite like the logic about ace being right regardless, even if I may not have done it myself.