Do you accept the quantitative invitation?
#21
Posted 2025-August-06, 00:09
#22
Posted 2025-August-06, 08:02
Cyberyeti, on 2025-August-05, 04:38, said:
If you put a gun to my head and said 4 or 6, I'd bid 6.
The point of my comment is NOT abut cubing back. It is to inform partner HOW to evaluate his hand BEFORE you're asking him to do so. Looking at this example hand, ♣Q is worth a LOT more if it helps to establish a 5 card ♣ then when it helps to establish a 3 card AKX or a doubleton AK. Not informing partner of a five card ♣ before asking him to evaluate 6NT is asking partner to do the impossible. Him kicking back the question won't solve the issue. It only transfers the blame in case the pair took the wrong decision.
#23
Posted 2025-August-06, 10:01
Huibertus, on 2025-August-06, 08:02, said:
He's already had some options to show shape, if he was particularly interested in a minor suit slam, he could have used a form of MSS, so is likely to be 33(43) good 15-16
#24
Posted 2025-August-06, 12:45
jillybean, on 2025-August-04, 15:04, said:
No matter where I come, there are always hands to review.
MP
Interesting discussion.
I would have passed at MP and had not thought it was close before all the discussions.
Interesting...
#25
Posted 2025-August-06, 15:38
pescetom, on 2025-August-05, 14:41, said:
I did some simulations a few days ago, but the site became unavailable so my post disappeared. IIRC, 6NT was in the 70% range opposite 16 HCP, but only around 50% opposite 15 HCP. Pavlicek's studies show that double dummy and actual results are relatively close for 6NT contracts with human declarers benefiting from the opening lead compared to double dummy, but doing much worse after the opening lead is made, with double dummy always getting 2 way finesses correctly, etc.
It helps to know what partner is going to bid 4NT with. 15+, 16+ ?
IMO, 5NT asks for a specific action by partner. Assuming 4NT showed 15+, Pass with 15 HCP, bid 6NT with more. An exception would be 15 HCP with a decent 5 card minor (assuming responder doesn't have a 5 card major after failing to transfer first).
No blame transfer at all since it is asking a specific question, and as for UI, 5NT already expresses doubt whether 6NT can be made.
#26
Posted Yesterday, 00:59
It's difficult to form an opinion on an auction with little bidding space, few agreements and no information on partner's tendencies.
#27
Posted Yesterday, 04:30
Cyberyeti, on 2025-August-06, 10:01, said:
He's already had some options to show shape. Yes of course. Which is exactly the point of my first contribution. Is he reliable at doing this?
If so pass 4NT. Or is he not so reliable in which case there's no way you can realistically assess your values and have to guess to pass 4NT or guess to bid on, both of which could be right or wrong.
#28
Posted Yesterday, 05:13
Huibertus, on 2025-August-07, 04:30, said:
If so pass 4NT. Or is he not so reliable in which case there's no way you can realistically assess your values and have to guess to pass 4NT or guess to bid on, both of which could be right or wrong.
We play 1N-2♣-2♦-3♥ as MSS, similarly 1N-2♣-2♥-2♠ so it's pretty easy for him to find out my shape if he cares, thus the suggestion is he's 33(43)
#29
Posted Yesterday, 07:36
"100% certain that many excellent players would disagree. This is far more about style/judgment than right vs. wrong." Fred
#30
Posted Today, 02:22
#31
Posted Today, 07:24
eagles123, on 2025-August-08, 02:22, said:
LOL I would not mind anyone calling some of my bidding daft but I'm not going tell my partner that, it's a new partnership.
He already mentioned that he could have used stayman, I do hope we discuss this hand and the 3oM treatment.
"100% certain that many excellent players would disagree. This is far more about style/judgment than right vs. wrong." Fred
#32
Posted Today, 07:30
jillybean, on 2025-August-08, 07:12, said:
He already mentioned that he could have used stayman, I do hope we discuss this hand.
Maybe he is used to weak NT? I am not, but imagine 4NT would be closer to the ball park then.