Q2
A987
As with most suit combinations, it is possible to solve this one using only small integers. Relying on only one's brain is possible too - you don't need a computer and, with some practice, you don't even need a pencil and paper.
Consider when the "normal" play (lead toward the Queen, then finesse the 9) fails:
- LHO has Jxx or 10xx (12 cases)
- LHO has J10xx (6 cases)
Total of 18 4-3 cases
- LHO has Jx or 10x (8 cases)
- LHO has J10xxx (4 cases)
Total of 12 5-2 cases
Now consider when the "unusual" play (lead the Queen, then finesse the 9) fails:
- LHO has KJx or K10x (8 cases)
- LHO has KJ10x (4 cases)
Total of 12 4-3 cases
- LHO has KJ or K10 doubleton (2 cases)
- LHO has KJ10xx (6 cases)
Total of 8 5-2 cases
So the unusual play does substantially better than the normal play if the suit is either 4-3 or 5-2.
The normal play is superior if the suit is 6-1, losing only to RHO's singleton King, whereas the unusual play loses 4 times as often (to RHO's 4 small singletons). The unusual play also loses when RHO is void.
But that's not nearly enough to make up for the difference when the suit is 4-3 or 5-2. If you have got this far then that should be obvious.
Counting total cases provides the correct answer for this combination (and most others), but it is not a generally reliable method for solving these problems (because not all cases are equally likely). That is one reason I split up my analysis into 4-3, 5-2, etc. Doing this also helps my brain to stay on track.
There are two other lines worth considering:
1) Lead the 9 and, if LHO play a spot card, play the 2 from dummy. Lead the Queen next.
This line is a very small amount worse than the normal play of low to the Queen. If you don't want to take my word for it, try an analysis similar to the above.
2) Lead the 2 and, if RHO plays low, play a spot card from your hand. Lead the Queen next.
This line is equivalent to leading the Queen to the first trick (and is arguably even more unusual).
Thus, there are two correct answers: lead twice from the dummy, starting with either the Queen or the deuce.
I have "discovered" many interesting 4-2 combinations during the past year or so. This one came up in a recent Vanderbilt match where leading the Queen didn't occur to me until several hours later. Most of my best discoveries come when I am having trouble sleeping
Some of these 4-2 problems appeared in the last few print issues of The Bridge World magazine. More will appear in the upcoming online edition of The Bridge World. Hopefully Adam Parrish and Andrew Gumperz will be able to come up with a better marketing pitch for their new online magazine...
Being able to figure out obscure suit combinations at the table (or attempting to memorize them all - yikes!) is not even remotely important to success at bridge, but to me such problems are very stimulating. I do recommend that intermediate players make an effort to memorize the correct way to play suit combinations that come up a lot.
I like this problem because it flies in the face of one of the first things we all learned about card play: lead toward honors in the short hand.
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