BBO Discussion Forums: I need some help with numbers/stats - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

  • 2 Pages +
  • 1
  • 2
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

I need some help with numbers/stats

#21 User is offline   akwoo 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,720
  • Joined: 2010-November-21

Posted Yesterday, 16:46

View Postjillybean, on 2026-May-22, 06:07, said:

Thanks, this is the general approach, some are interested in more detail
What are your rules for #2
#3 hopefully partner did make some other bid as we are playing a f1nt


Rules for #2:

3N and 4M are to play, both based on length rather than strength.

2N and 3M are strongly invitational; 3M with a 6 card suit and 2N without.

3lower is game forcing (as is 1H-1N-2S), supposedly a real suit. You may have to lie about 'real suit' if you want to game force on strength but don't have a second suit. (I prefer to put all my lying in 3C, but that requires further artificial sequences.)

2M promises 6. 2lower supposedly promises 4. If you have 6-4 or better, rebid 2M with an absolute minimum and 2lower with a little more.

This leaves all the not-highly-invitational hands that have 5 in the major and no lower 4 card suit. You should lie at the 2 level in your longest minor, clubs if equal. (It's possible to put all the lying into 2C, but that requires further artificial sequences.)
1

#22 User is online   jillybean 

  • hooked
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 12,318
  • Joined: 2003-November-15
  • Gender:Female
  • Location:Vancouver, Canada
  • Interests:Multi

Posted Yesterday, 17:27

View Postpescetom, on 2026-May-22, 15:44, said:

You can also be playing 2/1 game forcing but 1NT semi-forcing, like most of Europe and a good number of top level pairs.
In which case 1NT will rarely or never have 3=card support.
There are also other ways of revealing a weak 3=card support, such as going through 1M-2 in a 2/1 context.

So 2 is not GF?
"And no matter what methods you play, it is essential, for anyone aspiring to learn to be a good player, to learn the importance of bidding shape properly. MikeH
"100% certain that many excellent players would disagree. This is far more about style/judgment than right vs. wrong." Fred
"Hysterical Raisins again - this time on the World stage, not just the ACBL" mycroft
0

#23 User is offline   thepossum 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 3,061
  • Joined: 2018-July-04
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Australia

Posted Yesterday, 21:11

Apologies. I am sure nobody is interested inthe following numbers but I do not have the enerrgy to summarise

I was using Beling's bdeal with 10,000 hands and tried to cover South opening 1M in 1st or 2nd seat and West not overcalling, prepempting or doubling and North having a "forcing" 1NT hand

c= clubs, d = diamonds, h= hearts
and all the shape counts are most of the most likely shapes
shape7plusis anything wiht 7 or more in either minor
there is around 1 percent left over - mostly involving voids I guess
the reason for heart counts are first that I needed to find a bug but it is an interesting aspect of the 1NT bid
.. and I am playing SJS

c0: 35 / 10000 = 0.0035 Ań 0.00115764 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0590572
c1: 283 / 10000 = 0.0283 Ań 0.00325057 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.165829
c2: 1157 / 10000 = 0.1157 Ań 0.00626999 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.319865
c3: 2371 / 10000 = 0.2371 Ań 0.00833682 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.425304
c4: 2824 / 10000 = 0.2824 Ań 0.00882418 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.450167
c5: 2024 / 10000 = 0.2024 Ań 0.00787587 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.401789
c6: 985 / 10000 = 0.0985 Ań 0.00584119 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.29799
c7+: 321 / 10000 = 0.0321 Ań 0.00345516 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.176266
d0: 39 / 10000 = 0.0039 Ań 0.00122176 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0623281
d1: 321 / 10000 = 0.0321 Ań 0.00345516 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.176266
d2: 1133 / 10000 = 0.1133 Ań 0.00621304 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.316959
d3: 2278 / 10000 = 0.2278 Ań 0.00822134 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.419413
d4: 2813 / 10000 = 0.2813 Ań 0.00881372 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.449634
d5: 2123 / 10000 = 0.2123 Ań 0.00801597 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.408936
d6: 971 / 10000 = 0.0971 Ań 0.00580404 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.296094
d7+: 322 / 10000 = 0.0322 Ań 0.00346036 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.176531
h0: 116 / 10000 = 0.0116 Ań 0.00209892 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.107077
h1: 855 / 10000 = 0.0855 Ań 0.0054812 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.279624
h2: 2352 / 10000 = 0.2352 Ań 0.00831368 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.424124
h3: 1995 / 10000 = 0.1995 Ań 0.00783344 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.399625
h4: 2287 / 10000 = 0.2287 Ań 0.00823276 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.419996
h5+: 2395 / 10000 = 0.2395 Ań 0.00836571 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.426778
shape7plus=: 643 / 10000 = 0.0643 Ań 0.00480811 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.245287
shapem15=: 163 / 10000 = 0.0163 Ań 0.00248214 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.126627
shapem16=: 128 / 10000 = 0.0128 Ań 0.00220348 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.112411
shapem24=: 550 / 10000 = 0.055 Ań 0.00446887 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.22798
shapem25=: 616 / 10000 = 0.0616 Ań 0.00471287 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.240428
shapem26=: 548 / 10000 = 0.0548 Ań 0.00446121 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.227589
shapem32=: 260 / 10000 = 0.026 Ań 0.00311937 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.159135
shapem33=: 384 / 10000 = 0.0384 Ań 0.00376672 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.19216
shapem34=: 1228 / 10000 = 0.1228 Ań 0.00643353 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.328207
shapem35=: 1417 / 10000 = 0.1417 Ań 0.00683605 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.348742
shapem36=: 726 / 10000 = 0.0726 Ań 0.00508631 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.259479
shapem44=: 974 / 10000 = 0.0974 Ań 0.00581203 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.296502
shapem45=: 1290 / 10000 = 0.129 Ań 0.00657059 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.3352
shapem46=: 413 / 10000 = 0.0413 Ań 0.00390047 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.198983
shapem55=: 265 / 10000 = 0.0265 Ań 0.00314841 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.160617
shapem56=: 102 / 10000 = 0.0102 Ań 0.00196958 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.100479
shapem66=: 8 / 10000 = 0.0008 Ań 0.000554207 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.028273
Number of hands dealt: 360163. CPU time usage [sec]: 0.31 (x8 threads).

If anyone wonders what "Ań" means apart from a character set problem I think they aere standard errors or 1.96 of them. Not sure

EDIT small addendum. Apparently it makes 1NT 68 percent of the time plus or minus small error. No idea how bad the times it does not make are
If you have a werid 1NT hand do you risk passing and missing slam

Is David Kok on holidays :)
0

#24 User is offline   pescetom 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 9,811
  • Joined: 2014-February-18
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Italy

Posted Today, 01:29

 jillybean, on 2026-May-22, 17:27, said:

So 2 is not GF?

It is when it is not weak :)

It asks Opener to rebid the major, which Responder will pass if weak.
0

#25 User is online   jillybean 

  • hooked
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 12,318
  • Joined: 2003-November-15
  • Gender:Female
  • Location:Vancouver, Canada
  • Interests:Multi

Posted Today, 06:19

View Postpescetom, on 2026-May-23, 01:29, said:

It is when it is not weak :)

It asks Opener to rebid the major, which Responder will pass if weak.

Ok, so you are not agreeing a diamond fit until the 4 level to allow for the semi forcing 1nt.
I haven’t played sf, and don’t understand the benefits.
"And no matter what methods you play, it is essential, for anyone aspiring to learn to be a good player, to learn the importance of bidding shape properly. MikeH
"100% certain that many excellent players would disagree. This is far more about style/judgment than right vs. wrong." Fred
"Hysterical Raisins again - this time on the World stage, not just the ACBL" mycroft
0

  • 2 Pages +
  • 1
  • 2
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

4 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 4 guests, 0 anonymous users