[pons]

The tutorial suggests leading the Q from Q10987 opposite AX needing 4 tricks in order to pick-up KX in front of the AX - doesn't this break-even with starting with the A and then playing the Q to smother JX in front of the AX. We know that all 3-3 breaks are just a guess. Starting with the Q ALSO loses to the stiff K behind the A (very low %) but still makes the Ace start better. This tutorial can be found at Bridge Master/Level 3/Deal 5 - am I missing something or is this tutorial incorrect?

[luke warm]

maybe you're correct, but i seem to recall one hand containing 6+ to the QT9 and the other Ax... the 7 vs. 8 card fit matters

[bid_em_up]

I suspect this has more to do with an opponent holding Kxx or Kxxx in front of the Ace will not cover more than anything else (and if he does, he assures 4 tricks in the suit for you). It also wins if LHO holds Jx or KJx. Therefore you will win anytime LHO holds the King, as long as LHO does not hold KJxx(xx) along with doubleton J in any combination in either hand.

Leading to the Ace first, then small from dummy only wins in the specific situations of Jx in RHO's hand or when you properly guess whether to play the Q or the 10 on the 2nd round.

[pons]

Oops - faulty analysis - sorry - leading the Q picks up JX and KX in front of the AX but starting with A and then low to Q only picks up JX in front of the AX - all 3-3 breaks are 50-50 guesses

[gwnn]

oops, i didn't read the last post :(